Recently, a chart of birth population reported by Chengnan Street, Tianxin District, Changsha in the first quarter of 2024 was circulated on the Internet. The chart shows that in the first quarter of 2024, only 17 people will be reported to be born in the street, including 11 children with one child, 5 children with two children and 1 child with three children. Some netizens believe that the "dragon baby" phenomenon predicted at the beginning of the year may not come.
The interface news verified the content of the chart on the website of the People's Government of Tianxin District, Changsha City. At present, 4 of the 14 streets under the jurisdiction of Tianxin District have clearly announced the reported birth population in the first quarter of this year, both of which are double digits. Although the total population of a street is small and the sample meaning is limited, it can also provide a micro perspective of population change.
Is the number of 17 births reported by Chengnan Road Street in the first quarter small? Since there is only the reported birth population data in the first quarter of 2024, it is impossible to assess the annual birth rate. However, the birth population data of the street in 2023 can be roughly compared.
According to Qipu data, the resident population of Chengnan Road is 30616. In 2023, the total number of births reported by the street was 86, and the roughly calculated birth rate of the street last year was 2.8 ‰, far lower than the average birth rate of 6.39 ‰ in China last year.
In addition, compared with the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the number of births reported by the four streets with published data showed a downward trend. The number of people in Xinkaipu Street decreased from 86 to 48, that in Chengnan Road Street from 26 to 17, that in Guihuaping Street from 21 to 15, and that in Heishipu Street from 50 to 36.
From the perspective of the change in the child structure, the number of births of one child in each street is generally high, indicating that newly married couples are still the main fertility group. The number of one child births in Xinkaipu Street, Chengnan Road Street, Guihuaping Street and Heishipu Street were 23, 11, 7 and 25, respectively, accounting for 48.75%, 64.7%, 46.7% and 69.4%. This shows that although the total number of births has fluctuated, one child fertility is relatively stable.
It is worth noting that the proportion of three children is generally low, and there are only 1-2 people in most streets, reflecting the limited direct effect of the three child policy on improving fertility.
He Yafu, a demography expert, pointed out to InterfaceNews that it is difficult to predict the birth population of the whole year from the data of the first quarter alone. He pointed out that from a national perspective, there is "no doubt" that the number of people born in 2024 will increase compared with 2023.
The reasons include three aspects: First, a considerable number of couples who have delayed their childbearing due to the three-year epidemic are pregnant in 2023, and these children will be born in 2024; Second, according to the data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations in 2023 will increase by 845000 over the previous year; Third, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon. Although historical data shows that most of the children born in the Year of the Dragon are not particularly many, there are still many families in the Confucian cultural circle who want to have a "dragon baby" because of the auspicious implication of the dragon.
According to the statistical bulletin, the birth population of China in the last year of the Dragon Year (2012) was only 16.35 million, but the revised data of the Seventh Census shows that the birth population in 2012 reached 19.73 million, the largest since this century.
He Yafu pointed out that although the birth population will pick up in 2024, the general trend of declining birth population and fertility rate in China will not change in the long run. This is primarily due to the decline in the number of young people and women of childbearing age. According to the seven census data, there will be 215 million people aged 31-40 (born in 1980-1989), 178 million people aged 21-30 (born in 1990-1999) and only 155 million people aged 11-20 (born in 2000-2009) in 2020.
Secondly, the concept of marriage and fertility has changed, the number of people who are not married and sterile is increasing, and the young generation's fertility desire is low. According to the survey of the National Health Commission in 2021, women of childbearing age continue to have lower childbearing intentions, with an average planned number of children of 1.64, down from 1.76 in 2017 and 1.73 in 2019. As the main body of childbearing, the post-90s and post-00s only plan to have 1.54 and 1.48 children on average.
In this context, all regions are actively exploring strong fertility support policies. Changsha is one of the few provincial capital cities that provides childcare subsidies. On October 13, 2022, the Changsha Municipal Health Commission and the Changsha Municipal Finance Bureau issued the Notice on Issues Related to the Issuance of Child Care Subsidies for Three Children, which provides a one-time subsidy of 10000 yuan to families eligible to have three children (or more).
Interface journalist | Zhao Meng
Interface News Editor | Liu Haichuan
Original title: If the permanent population of a street in Changsha is only 17 people born in the third quarter, will "Dragon Baby" still come together?
