At present, the international epidemic continues to spread, the downside risk of the world economy intensifies, and the factors of instability and uncertainty increase significantly. The pressure on China to prevent the epidemic continues to increase, and the resumption of work and production and economic and social development face new difficulties and challenges. On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of China's national economy in the first quarter of 2020. According to the preliminary calculation, the GDP of the first quarter was 20650.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% at comparable prices.

"Danger and opportunity always coexist, and overcoming danger is an opportunity." General Secretary Xi Jinping's speech during his inspection in Zhejiang on April 1 gave important instructions and pointed out the direction for comprehensively promoting epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. How to recognize the situation, win and fight this well prepared battle to boost the economy is crucial.

To this end, the People's Daily Power Forum invited seven experts and scholars to jointly discuss the international economic situation under the epidemic and China's rescue solutions.

The global economy may fall into negative growth in 2020

The impact of COVID-19 epidemic is particularly obvious in the US stock market. In March, like a roller coaster, the US stock market experienced four circuit breakers, seven days of sharp decline and nine days of sharp rise.

Yao Yudong, deputy general manager and chief economist of Dacheng Fund, said that the global stock market turmoil should not be over. Under the strong easing of the Federal Reserve, the first period of decline of US stocks ended and entered the rebound stage, while the global stock market also fluctuated with the ups and downs of US stocks. "The latest IMF forecast that the global economy will fall sharply into negative growth in 2020, which will have the worst economic consequences since the Great Depression of the 1930s."

At present, the global economy is like a "hard brake". Is such decline and turmoil in the financial market a "natural disaster" brought about by the epidemic or an economic depression caused by cyclical recession? Zhu Qing, a professor at the School of Finance and Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that the current economic situation is the result of external attacks and is a "natural disaster". "However, whatever the cause, objectively speaking, the economic growth has dropped sharply and consumption has shrunk rapidly, which is already an economic depression. As for whether it will evolve into a global economic crisis, it depends on the control of foreign epidemics. If the above situation continues for a long time, it will lead to an economic crisis."

Yao Yudong said that the duration of the overseas epidemic and the progress of vaccine research and development will determine the time and scale of the economic recession. At present, the interruption of global supply chain and global trade has become an established fact, and the recovery time is still far away. The decline of total demand will make global economic growth face the most difficult situation since the Great Depression of last century.

All countries have constantly increased their response measures to maintain economic order and stability

"The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic profoundly demonstrates the close connection and vulnerability of the world." On March 26, the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) responded to the special summit of COVID-19 and issued a joint statement to jointly maintain financial stability, restore and achieve stronger growth, and minimize interference with trade and the global supply chain.

In view of the current economic situation, the United States has an unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy and launched a $2.2 trillion stimulus plan. Japan also adopted the largest economic stimulus plan in history, with a total amount of 108 trillion yen (about 7 trillion yuan). In the UK, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank jointly announced that they would be able to monetize government debt directly for the time being, that is, to provide financing for government debt through printing (issuing) currency until the epidemic subsides.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that, taking the United States as an example, the practice was basically divided into three sections. "First, we need to provide liquidity to avoid the rupture and collapse of the capital chain of enterprises; second, we need to pay consumers to avoid their difficulties in life; third, we need to reduce taxes, but we don't pay much attention to investment. At present, these measures are effective for quickly relieving economic pressure."

Yao Yudong said, "On the whole, these large-scale monetary and fiscal policy supports are conducive to avoiding a deep recession in the balance sheets of residents and enterprises, promoting the capital market to stop falling and stabilize, and playing an important role in maintaining social and economic order and stability." He believed that the urgent task is for overseas countries to control the epidemic as soon as possible, Only in this way can we promote economic growth and stabilize the market as soon as possible.

China is also taking active fiscal and monetary policies to deal with the crisis. On March 27, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held a meeting, which made it clear that it would study and introduce a package of macro policy measures, including raising the fiscal deficit rate, issuing special government bonds, increasing the scale of special local government bonds, guiding the downward trend of interest rates in the loan market, and stimulating consumption. Three days later, the central bank restarted the reverse repo and cut the interest rate by 20 basis points. On April 3, the central bank targeted a 1% reduction in the reserve requirement for small and medium-sized banks, which began to be implemented in two times on April 15, and this is the third reduction in this year.

Li Xiangyang, president of the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that compared with the Federal Reserve's unrestricted quantitative easing policy, the central bank's financial policy to deal with the epidemic is relatively mild. "We haven't cut interest rates overall. The main reason for adopting this policy is that policymakers want to keep more tools in their toolbox to deal with the worst situation. There is still great uncertainty about the future of the epidemic."

Huo Jianguo, former president of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the production of intermediate products in the global value chain might be short and adjusted due to the epidemic. At present, we should give full play to the role of international mutual assistance and relevant mechanisms, and call on everyone to fight against the economic impact of the epidemic. "China needs to build an open, stable and safe production chain and supply chain, and also focus on building an integrated domestic closed-loop based on the market and the market system."

The foundation and trend of China's precise policy to boost economic development remain unchanged

As General Secretary Xi Jinping said, danger and opportunity always coexist, and overcoming danger is opportunity. The premise of seeking opportunities in a crisis is to have a sober and rational judgment of the situation, so as to seek benefits and avoid disadvantages, and make precise measures.

Experts unanimously said that China is an important participant in the global economy, the largest country in international trade, and the second largest country in foreign direct investment. When there are problems in the global economy, it is difficult for China to be independent. The bad economy of foreign countries affects our exports first. The production of some domestic enterprises in China needs to import some raw materials, semi-finished products and key equipment from countries with serious epidemics such as Europe and the United States. If the global epidemic does not end, this will also have a great impact on China's domestic production.

The reporter learned from the press conference of the State Council Information Office that at present, the decline of major economic indicators in March has narrowed significantly. Will the second quarter become the turning point of China's economy throughout the year? The National Bureau of Statistics said that the momentum of economic improvement in March should continue. The economic performance in the second quarter will be better. It is a basic trend that the second quarter will be better than the first quarter. If the epidemic does not have a major impact, the socio-economic situation in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half. Zhu Qing said that China's economy began to improve in March, and walked out of the "cliff" like decline in January and February. This is inseparable from the country's timely efforts to resume production and work at the beginning of March, so that the economy gradually moves towards the right track. It seems that we are going out of the downturn caused by the epidemic. As long as the epidemic can be controlled, the general trend of the economy is relatively certain.

Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce and Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that China's economic growth will show a trend of low before high after the epidemic. "As long as we work hard, we can also ensure 6% GDP growth. The goal of 6% is not a simple digital GDP, but a result of the war against the epidemic. It is the result of supply side reform, especially this year's high-level and high-quality economic development. China's economy may show low growth in the first quarter or even the second quarter, but it will increase in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. "

Zhu Qing believes that China's economic growth this year is estimated to be lower than last year. But how much lower depends on the policies and measures introduced and the global epidemic prevention and control efforts. Judging from the determination of the central government to achieve the set socio-economic goals and the existing policy means, it is not completely impossible to reach 5% or so, but this requires increased fiscal and financial stimulus in the next two quarters, and strong stimulus will bring some side effects, which requires comprehensive consideration to find an appropriate balance before the goal is achieved and the future stable development.

Despite the difficult situation, there are some positive factors in China's economic development. Lin Guijun, executive director of the National Institute of Opening up Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, said that in terms of the current situation of epidemic prevention and control, China's economic and social operation is better than that of other countries, but at the same time, it is also necessary to overcome a series of difficulties brought about by the epidemic, seize the opportunities, pay more attention to the problems in the economy earlier, and make the relative situation of development better.

Yao Yudong said, "It needs to be pointed out that China has taken the lead in achieving a phased victory in epidemic prevention and control, and the resumption of production and work of enterprises has been carried out in an orderly and effective manner. At the same time, the domestic macro policy response is appropriate, and the domestic economy is expected to take the lead in stabilizing and leading global economic growth in the future. In the medium and long term, the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic economy is still temporary, and does not change the basis and trend of long-term development of the domestic economy. From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, macro policy space, and medium - and long-term economic development trends, I am still confident in China's economic development in the future. "

Huo Jianguo said that when some industries were impacted, the epidemic has also become a catalyst for the development of some emerging industries, accelerating the development of the new economy and the digital economy, such as online education, online consumption, medical health and other industries have great potential. We should solve the problems faced in the development of the digital economy in a targeted manner, and support relevant enterprises to accelerate their development.  

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