Please refer to the 2013 China Gold Industry Analysis Report for the current situation of China's gold industry market, the survey and analysis of China's gold market, and the strategic consultation report on the smart choice of the gold industry
The sharp fall of gold price in April and June 2013 left a deep impression on people. The main reason for the 22.8% decline in gold prices in the second quarter was the sharp reduction of holdings by international institutions. According to relevant data, the demand for gold in the second quarter of 2013 was 856 metric tons, down 12% year on year, which was the lowest level in four years.
In 2012, the holdings of gold etfs, which accounted for 6% of the world's gold demand, fell by 402 metric tons in the second quarter, doubling from less than 200 metric tons in the first quarter. Relevant data shows that the outflow of gold etf funds reached 18.5 billion dollars in the second quarter, which is the first quarterly withdrawal of gold etf funds since its establishment in 2003; According to the documents of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, in the second quarter, the famous SPDR gold trust positions were cut by more than half; Soros, a smart choice magnate, also sold nearly 531000 shares of the fund.
The recovery of the US economy and the gradual reduction of the quantitative easing policy by the US government before the end of 2013 will make the key basis for gold as a tool disappear.
The larger buyers in the second quarter were consumers. Globally, the total demand for gold jewellery in the second quarter of 2013 rose by 37% to 420 tons, from 421 tons in the same period last year to 576 tons, reaching a high level since the third quarter of 2008. Among them, the demand of China increased by 54% year on year, while that of India increased by 51%.
China and India's gold jewelry demand accounts for nearly 60% of the global total; In terms of gold bars and coins, China and India account for about half of the global total.
Where will the gold price go in the short term? The exit trend of US quantitative easing policy is inversely related to the gold price, that is, the faster the US economy recovers, the faster the US monetary easing policy exits, and the faster the gold price declines. However, this process may be repeated, leading to fluctuations in the gold price. In addition, in order to curb the soaring demand for gold in India, India decided to increase the import tax on gold from 8% to 10%, the third increase in eight months, which to some extent brought pressure on the demand for gold in India.