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On the 20th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September, which showed that new and second-hand housing in the first tier cities had cooled down in an all-round way, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities had declined 0.1% from a 0.3% rise last month, and the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings had declined 0.1% from a flat level last month.
Industry insiders said that the price decline was stable, and it was the consensus of the market that "nine gold and ten silver" would lose its luster. Under the influence of various factors, the trend of housing prices rising in a large area in September has been significantly alleviated. In the fourth quarter, under the background of unrelenting regulatory policies, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises will gradually increase. It is expected that the market will remain stable as a whole in the coming months, and the growth of several indicators will continue to narrow.
The rising trend of housing prices in large areas has been alleviated
Data shows that housing prices in first tier cities have cooled in an all-round way. On a month on month basis, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in the four first tier cities increased by 0.3% last month to 0.1%, of which Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, Beijing was flat, and Guangzhou rose by 0.4%; The sales price of second-hand residential buildings fell 0.1% from the flat last month, with Beijing and Shanghai both falling 0.2%, Shenzhen flat and Guangzhou rising 0.2%.
From the perspective of second - and third tier cities, house prices are still rising, but the increase has slowed down significantly. The data shows that the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 31 second tier cities rose by 1.1% and 0.8% respectively, 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 35 third tier cities rose 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, down 1.1 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that after the housing price rose to a new record in August, the housing market growth slowed significantly in September, and the market showed signs of fever. New residential buildings rose by 1% month on month in September, significantly lower than the previous peak in June August.
58 Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that it was not surprising that Jin Jiu lost his luster. In September, in addition to the central macro-control of the property market, the "one city, one policy" of Beijing Provident Fund, Shenzhen 731 New Deal, Shanghai co ownership and other "one policy" aimed at precise regulation of the real estate market. At the same time, from the data of 58 Anju guest line, the number of second-hand houses listed nationwide declined month on month, and the number of new houses in first tier cities declined month on month more than the average. This has also led to a general "cooling" trend in the property market.
Zhang Ping, chief economist of Shanghai Fuda Group Company, said that the first tier cities are moving steadily under the continuous pressure of real estate regulation. With the re tightening of regulation policies in second tier cities, talent introduction and lottery purchase in the first half of the year have ebbed, and real estate has returned to rationality.
Zhang Ping believed that with the withdrawal of speculative demand for real estate, the purchasing power of local residents released in the early stage was advanced, and the subsequent demand could not keep up. In addition, the housing price was at a high level, so it was inevitable that the local purchasing power could not be supported.
Regional differentiation is still obvious
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Statistics, in the first nine months of 2018, the national real estate development investment was 8866.5 billion yuan, up 9.9% year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to August. Among them, the residential investment was 6280.6 billion yuan, up 14.0%, and the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage point. It is worth mentioning that this is also the first time since the second half of this year that the growth rate of real estate investment has returned to single digits.
Zhang Dawei said that as of September 2018, the current round of rising cycle of the real estate market has reached 40 months, which continues to refresh the longest history of rising cycle of China's real estate. The overall property market is still at a high level, but the peak season is not booming. On the contrary, the growth of a number of data slowed down, showing a gradually stable trend. From the perspective of September turnover, although the total turnover from January to September has increased year-on-year, from the perspective of September alone, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide is 168 million square meters, down 3.6% year on year. This is also the first time in the last five months that the year-on-year turnover has decreased.
Data shows that in the first nine months, the housing construction area of real estate enterprises was 7672.18 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to August, and 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month. The newly started area was 1525.83 million square meters, an increase of 16.4%, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage point, 1 percentage point less than that of the previous month. The completed housing area was 51.132 million square meters, down 11.4%, or 0.2 percentage points.
In terms of land transaction, the land purchase area of real estate enterprises increased by 15.7% year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that from January to August; The transaction price of land was 100.2 billion yuan, up 22.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 1 percentage point.
In terms of real estate sales, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 2.9% year on year, 1.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. The sales volume increased by 13.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points.
Zhang Dawei said that from the perspective of the national market, the differentiation is still very obvious, especially the sales area in the east and northeast has decreased, and the rise of the property market is mainly supported by the transactions in the central and western markets.
In the first three quarters, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased year on year. While the eastern region declined 4.3% year on year and the northeast region declined 3.5% year on year, the central and western regions increased 10.2% and 8.9% year on year respectively. From the perspective of turnover, both the central and western regions saw year-on-year growth of more than 20%.
This differentiation is also reflected in housing prices. While the increase in house prices in the first and second tier key cities has dropped, the central and western cities led the increase in house prices in September. Specifically, the cities with an increase of more than 2% are all in the central and western regions. The price of new commercial housing in Xi'an has increased by 6.2% month on month, Hohhot by 2.8% month on month, Luzhou by 2.6% month on month, and Xining and Guiyang by 2.1% month on month.
House prices may be loose in the fourth quarter
Hangzhou, as a major real estate city, also witnessed a crazy scene of "queuing in the early morning and lottery" in the first half of this year, but only in the past five months, there have been new deals and price drops.
Second hand homeowners in Beijing have also begun to relax, and the price is negotiable. For example, the listing price of a two bedroom apartment with 6.7 million yuan in the East Third Ring Road dropped from 6.7 million yuan in the initial stage to 6.3 million yuan later for three consecutive days.
Zhang Dawei believes that purchasing power can hardly rise again. Although the cities with rising housing prices are still the mainstream in China, the market has shown signs of gradual stabilization. In cities with strict regulatory policies, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Hefei, there are signs of falling housing prices.
As the first and second tier cities that serve as the price indicators, buyers' expectations have changed significantly, and the number of waiters is increasing. From the confidence index of buyers and brokers of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the confidence index of buyers was 92.8, down 5.7% month on month; The broker confidence index was 102.9, down 2.3% month on month.
In the above context, Zhang Bo believes that under the influence of expectations, the exchange of price for volume will become the norm, and many real estate enterprises are no exception. They have to make more concessions on price in exchange for sales.
The reason, Zhang Bo said, was that the housing market heat in September had already "peaked and dropped", the real estate regulation was difficult to relax, and the difficulty of real estate enterprises' loans had not decreased, so they had to make concessions to change the weak state of transactions.
"In the future, hot cities will begin to enter an era of endless sales, including Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wenzhou, Ningbo and other markets. The inventory will rise month on month. In addition to a few hot spots that are just in need, the de consumption rate will also decline rapidly." Zhang Dawei said. The opinion of this article only represents the author himself. If the source of the article is a network reprint, this website is an information publishing platform. If there is infringement, please contact this website to delete it in time.
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