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People's Financial Review: China's import and export stopped falling and recovered in the first 10 months, consolidating the positive trend

Shi Yaqiao
November 10, 2023 14:05 | Source: People's Daily Online - Viewpoint Channel
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Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the foreign trade data from January to October this year: in the first 10 months, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 34.32 trillion yuan, and the growth rate was 0.03%, up from 0.2% year-on-year (the same below) in the first three quarters. Among them, in October, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.54 trillion yuan, up 0.9%. China's foreign trade has been further consolidated.

Under the influence of the sluggish global economic recovery, global trade is also in a weak trend. At the same time, benefiting from the continuous release of dividends from China's policies to stabilize the economy and foreign trade, China has accumulated more positive factors in the field of foreign trade. Since this year, China's import and export scale has not only increased quarter by quarter, but also consolidated the positive trend of monthly import and export. In addition to the scale of import and export in September hitting a new high in a single month of the year, October also reversed the situation of "four consecutive drops" in the growth rate of import and export in the previous single month, achieving the first time since the second half of the year from negative to positive, ending the decline and recovering.

In the face of multiple external risk challenges, China's foreign trade withstood the pressure, and its performance in the first 10 months of this year was not short of highlights. The import and export of general trade kept growing, of which the export increased by 2.1% and the import increased by 1.3%; The proportion was increased, accounting for 64.9% of China's total foreign trade. Foreign exports reached 19.55 trillion yuan, up 0.4% year on year. In particular, the export of mechanical and electrical products not only grew faster than the overall year-on-year growth, but also accounted for nearly 60% of exports; Against the trend, automobile exports maintained a high growth rate of 88.5%, which was eye-catching. The data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of automobile exports and export volume has continued to remain high, and the proportion of new energy vehicles in the global market, including the European Union and other developed economies, has continued to rise significantly, which not only reflects the development trend of China's automobile manufacturing industry, especially the new energy vehicle industry, to achieve "overtaking at a curve", but also the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, Another proof of shaping new export momentum.

From January to October, China's foreign trade imports amounted to 14.77 trillion yuan, significantly narrowing the decline. In particular, the import of energy commodities such as iron ore, crude oil and coal grew rapidly in October, which was driven by the import growth of agricultural products and consumer goods such as soybeans. The year-on-year growth rate of imports in October reached 6.4%, which was stronger than expected. In the second half of the year, the combination of China's steady growth policies continued to increase and achieved remarkable results. The domestic economy continued to recover, the recovery surface continued to expand, the endogenous power of industry gradually increased, industrial demand significantly warmed up, and the actual import demand brought about by the steady domestic demand became the main reason for the recovery of import growth.

As the largest business entity of foreign trade in China, the import and export performance of private enterprises is not only significantly better than the overall performance, but also maintained a growth trend. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months, there were 526000 private enterprises with import and export performance, up 8.7% year on year; Import and export reached 18.24 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, accounting for more than 50% of China's total foreign trade. Behind the "report card" is the efforts of enterprises, which is also the continuous and significant effect of China's foreign trade stabilization policy. In order to ensure the basic stability of foreign trade throughout the year, at the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Commerce released the Opinions on Promoting Stable Scale and Optimal Structure of Foreign Trade (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions) in April, taking into account the factors such as the high base and weak foreign demand last year; Subsequently, it successively introduced measures such as cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouse development, processing trade, new energy vehicle trade, and import expansion, forming a "1+N" policy system. Policy support and enterprises strive to form an effective joint force, continue to promote the stable scale and excellent structure of China's foreign trade, continue to strengthen the resilience of China's foreign trade, and ensure the overall stable operation.

At this stage, the diversification trend of China's foreign trade market is increasingly obvious, especially the import and export scale of China and the countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" continues to maintain a significant growth trend. In the first 10 months, China's import and export to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" totaled 15.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%, accounting for 46.5% of China's foreign trade scale. Among them, the total import and export value to ASEAN accounted for 15.2%, with an increase of 0.9%. ASEAN became China's largest trading partner. At the same time, China's imports to the EU and the United States increased by 5.1% and 0.2% respectively. As representative traditional markets, the EU, the United States and Japan ranked second, third and fourth among China's trade partners.

At present, the overall operation of China's foreign trade is stable and there is progress in stability. Not only has the foundation of "stability" been continuously consolidated, but the momentum of "progress" has gradually emerged, and at the same time, "new" momentum has also accelerated to gather. It should be noted that due to the impact of the global economic situation and weak external demand, there is still some uncertainty in the future of global trade import and export. In the face of the fourth quarter, the "highlight" of the whole year's foreign trade, in addition to further helping enterprises stabilize orders and expand the market, optimize supply and purchase docking; We should continue to increase policy support, implement the Opinions, do a good job in the research reserve of new policies, and stabilize the export advantages of key products. As China's measures to stabilize foreign trade continue to show significant effect, new advantages in industrial ecological competition are gradually formed, and foreign trade competitiveness continues to improve. It is believed that the import and export of foreign trade in the fourth quarter of this year will continue to consolidate the good operating situation, and also inject greater certainty into our goal and task of promoting stability and quality of foreign trade throughout the year.

(Editor in charge: Shi Yaqiao, Qu Yuan)

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