Recently, the Japan Maritime Security Agency announced that the maritime police agencies of the United States, Japan and South Korea will hold the first joint maritime exercise in early June. The participating institutions include the US Coast Guard, the Japan Maritime Security Agency and the Korea Maritime Police Agency. Analysts pointed out that since the Camp David meeting in 2023, the cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea in the field of defense has become increasingly close. This exercise will expand cooperation to the level of maritime police, which may further provoke camp confrontation in the region.

Focus on command and dispatching

The Japanese media said that the plan and scheme of the drill were jointly finalized by the senior management of the US, Japan and South Korea maritime police agencies. The three countries agreed to hold the first joint exercise in the Sea of Japan on June 6, focusing on information sharing, maritime succession surveillance, joint law enforcement and evidence collection, and multi scenario crisis management.

This drill mainly focuses on the command organization, and adopts two ways of "distribution" and "concentration" for command and control. In the "distribution" phase, one party will first release the "hazard dynamic", and realize information sharing under the coordination of the command organization of the U.S. Coast Guard in Yokosuka; The other side immediately adjusted the level of surveillance situation, and under the control of the United States, it demarcated the task handover area, continued to track targets, and realized the "near real-time sharing" of maritime threat dynamics with the help of the intelligence information sharing system of the United States and its allies.

Later, led by the United States, the three countries will set up joint command organizations in Japan and South Korea, which are expected to be located in the Kyoto Wuhe Marine Security Headquarters of the Japanese Maritime Security Agency and Jeju Marine Police Agency of South Korea. After the "centralized" operation of the United States, Japan and South Korea, the situation analysis and preliminary determination of "criminal acts" will be carried out, and the "potential hazards of suspicious ships" will be thoroughly assessed, and then joint law enforcement personnel will be sent to intercept and collect evidence, including sending out aircraft to warn.

In addition to uniformly commanding and dispatching its forces, the joint command organization also has a special liaison post, which is responsible for liaising with the US military headquarters in Japan and South Korea, so as to obtain support after the escalation of the situation. After the operation of the joint command structure, the "distributed" command structure of the three countries will also continue to operate, mainly responsible for handling internal coordination. It is speculated that the United States Coast Guard will send personnel as the main head of the joint command organization.

The "live drill" part of this joint exercise mainly includes rapid deployment of personnel, training of cooperative law enforcement procedures, and support and cooperation when participating in international rescue. At that time, the three countries will each send at least one ship to participate in the drill.

Intended to expand the scope of cooperation

During the Camp David Meeting in 2023, the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea reached a consensus on maritime security cooperation. In the recent bilateral high-level talks, a number of agreements including the cooperation of the Maritime Police Organization were signed. The joint maritime drill held by the US, Japan and South Korea maritime police institutions is a microcosm of the further strengthening of the three countries' ties. In the past, similar drills have been held between the United States and Japan, the United States and South Korea, and Japan and South Korea, but the content is relatively simple, mainly involving rescue or law enforcement registration. This time, a scenario based comprehensive exercise was adopted to expand the scope of cooperation between the three countries.

Previously, patrol ships of the US Coast Guard and patrol ships of the Japan Maritime Security Agency went to the Philippines to participate in joint exercises. The United States also organized joint training for law enforcement fleets of Pacific island countries, and Japan sent experts from the Maritime Security Agency for on-site training. Both the joint training of the US Japan ROK maritime police institutions and the similar training held by the United States and its allies in the past have been supported by warships and military aircraft, and the scenario of transition from "gray situation" to "war situation" is envisaged. In the U.S. - Japan "Sharp Blade" - 2024 joint simulation command exercise, the United States incorporated patrol ships into the battle sequence to provide protection for the battlefield. The Japanese Defense Ministry has also made it clear that the wartime Self Defense Force will take over the command of the Maritime Security Agency.

Foreign media pointed out that in recent years, the patrol ships of the US Coast Guard have been deployed in the western Pacific region as usual, and have been incorporated into the US aircraft carrier strike group to carry out military missions; The number of patrol ships of the Japanese Coast Guard Agency exceeded 100, with the maximum displacement exceeding 8000 tons; The size of the Korean Coast Guard is relatively small, ranging from 500 to 3000 tons, and it has the characteristics of "small, fast and flexible". It is expected that the United States, Japan and South Korea will gradually establish a joint exercise mechanism of "paramilitary forces" in the future, while constantly expanding the number of participating countries.

Cooperation prospects are uncertain

Japanese and South Korean officials are looking forward to the upcoming joint maritime exercise, but some media have questioned the prospects of deepening cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea.

On the one hand, there is a "difference" in the attitude of the three countries towards the joint exercise. Although the number of Coast Guard patrol ships in the area has increased, there are only three to four at most, but they still play a leading role in the joint exercise. Some opposition parties in Japan and South Korea said that their countries should not act as "cannon fodder" to please the United States.

On the other hand, the current domestic public opinion support rate of the leaders of Japan and South Korea is at a historical low, and the people are not satisfied with the leaders' attempts to improve public opinion through the cooperation of the United States, Japan and South Korea. At the same time, the US government will also face a general election at the end of this year. All kinds of uncertainties will add instability factors to the tripartite cooperation mechanism.

In addition, Japan's patrol ship and South Korea's maritime police ship have clashed for many times, which also makes the cooperation between the two sides a little strange in actual operation. "The quality and effectiveness of cooperation remain to be observed". (Liu Cheng)

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