According to foreign media reports, Australia recently released its first national defense strategy report, which described the focus of threat assessment, national defense investment and the path to achieve the strategy. Analysts pointed out that the report reflects Australia's new ideas and initiatives in the field of national defense construction, but due to multiple factors, the implementation prospect of the report is not optimistic.

Redefine security "boundaries"

According to the report, the report released by Australia mainly elaborates Australia's national defense strategy from the aspects of threat judgment, construction goals and realization paths.

In terms of threat assessment, the report believes that the main security threat faced by Australia is not an invasion of its territory. For this reason, Australia redefined its security "border" and adjusted its overall strategy accordingly. Australian Defense Minister Mars pointed out in his explanation of the report that Australia's defense activities will no longer be limited to its own borders. He said that Australia's security "border" is not on its own coastline, but far away, so as to safeguard its economic interests in the Pacific Ocean and the world. The report also mentioned that Australia, like the United States, should adopt a national security policy based on the "refusal strategy", so as to "respond to threats as far away from home as possible".

In terms of construction goals, Australia's primary goal is to transform its national defense force from a "force undertaking multiple tasks" to a "force capable of effectively carrying out deterrence and amphibious operations in the Indo Pacific region". In the future, Australia will focus on developing missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and warships, and build an army more suitable for coastal operations, a more efficient air force, a more capable network and space force, and a larger and more lethal navy.

In terms of path, the report lists six urgent priorities, including procurement of nuclear powered submarines, purchase and manufacture of long-range missiles, establishment of new military bases in the north of the country, promotion of military technological innovation, strengthening relations with regional partners and defense cooperation. It is reported that Australia plans to increase its defense expenditure by an additional 50.3 billion Australian dollars (about 32.6 billion US dollars) in the next 10 years, with the goal of increasing the proportion of its defense expenditure in GDP to 2.4%. It is estimated that from now to 2034, the total investment of the Australian government in the field of defense will reach 330 billion Australian dollars.

Improve military strength "with the help of external forces"

It is reported that Australia's first national defense strategy report proposed two strategies on equipment construction and military strength development.

First, the equipment construction adopts the strategy of "reducing first and then increasing". Australia plans to invest 53 billion to 63 billion Australian dollars for the "Orcus" submarine project and its supporting infrastructure construction; A total of 28 billion to 35 billion Australian dollars was invested in new long-range weapons projects, including Tomahawk missiles. The expenditure on the above projects accounts for about 1/4 of the national defense investment in the next 10 years, which is crucial to improving the "rejection capability" of the Australian Defense Force.

In order to ensure the smooth progress of the above projects, Australia clearly stated in the report that it would "reduce, postpone or adjust" some existing defense projects. Among them, the most striking is the postponement of the purchase of a certain number of F-35A fighters and the continued use of F/A-18E/F fighters. An official from the Australian Ministry of Defence said: "We currently have 72 attack/fighter aircraft, and let the F/A-18E/F continue to serve, mainly because it is more effective than we expected. In addition, by delaying the replacement of the F/A-18E/F, we can free up funds for investment in other projects such as long-range missiles."

Secondly, military development emphasizes the strategy of "relying on external forces". The report points out that in order to improve the operational and deterrent capabilities of the Australian Defense Force, Australia will strengthen defense cooperation with "one ally" (the United States) and "multiple partners" (including New Zealand, South Korea, India, the United Kingdom and Japan). The cooperation covers "expanding bilateral and multilateral cooperation, strengthening consultation on regional emergencies, and deepening national defense innovation and scientific and technological cooperation".

It is worth noting that Australia has shown great interest in strengthening defense cooperation with Japan. The two sides plan to focus on improving operational interoperability, jointly promote cooperation in key areas such as integrated air defense, antimissile defense and underwater operations, and improve "joint participation" in joint exercises and other military initiatives. Jiying Yoshida, chief of staff of Japan's Land Self Defense Force, said that Japan and Australia would "keep pace" in deepening interoperability and expanding joint training.

The implementation prospect is not optimistic

Foreign media believe that Australia has proposed a series of arms building plans in its first national defense strategy report, but its "implementation and effectiveness" still faces many challenges.

First, the capital investment is insufficient. The public opinion in Australia generally believes that the proportion of Australian defense expenditure GDP is expected to increase to 2.4% by 2034, but this increase is "too small" and "too late". The reason why it is "too small" is that its growth rate will be lower than the inflation rate in Australia; "Too late" is because the major defense investment in the next 10 years is mainly concentrated in the "next 5 years", and the tight budget may lead to the decline of Australia's military strength in the "first 5 years".

Secondly, the staff is insufficient. The implementation of Australia's national defense strategy depends on a large number of high-quality military personnel. However, Australia is currently facing a serious problem of "recruitment difficulty". Mars even recently proposed that it may recruit new soldiers from Pacific island countries or other "Five Eye Alliance" countries. In addition, the overall training level of the Australian Defense Force is average. After the installation of advanced weapon systems such as long-range missiles in the future, the relevant operation training must also rely on the support of allies and partners such as the United States.

Finally, some contents are not clear. Some professionals in Australia believe that the first national defense strategy report uses a lot of "vague language and general statements". For example, when discussing the "denial strategy", the report mentioned that Australia's defense needs have "strong forecasting ability", but the specific meaning is not clear. In addition, the report also mentioned that there will be about A $110 billion of funds "changed use" in the next 10 years, but Mars' speech and the report itself did not provide detailed information. (Hu Bo)

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