On June 16, 2021, US President Biden met with Russian President Putin in Geneva. After the meeting, the two sides issued a joint statement on strategic stability, reached consensus on strategic nuclear stability, and said that one of the common goals of both sides is to reduce the threat of nuclear war. At the same time, the statement also mentioned the recently extended New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the two countries, saying that it reflects the commitment of both sides to control strategic nuclear weapons.

On February 3 this year, US Secretary of State Blinken issued a statement saying that the United States and Russia agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years, and the treaty will remain unchanged until February 5, 2026. On the same day, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that Russia and the United States exchanged diplomatic notes on the same day and completed the relevant internal procedures for the agreement to extend the validity of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and the agreement came into force on that day.

As the only existing arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the fate of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has attracted great attention from the international community. Behind the successful renewal of the treaty, there is the formal need of the US Biden government to "overthrow and rebuild", and there is also the strategic appeal of Russia to create an asymmetric advantage. With the advent of the Biden administration, a new strategic game between the United States and Russia has unfolded quietly.

The "Past Life and Present Life" of the Arms Control Treaty

In April 2009, the then US President Barack Obama delivered a "nuclear free speech" in Prague, the Czech capital. In his speech, he promised to commit to reducing nuclear weapons during his term of office in order to achieve a "denuclearized" world. Under the unremitting promotion of the Obama administration, on April 8, 2010, the heads of the United States and Russia returned to Prague on the occasion of the first anniversary of the "nuclear free speech" and officially signed the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

According to the treaty, the United States and Russia can only deploy strategic offensive weapons in their respective territories, and the two countries must exchange information on the number of warheads and delivery vehicles twice a year. From 2011, the two sides will reduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles, heavy strategic bombers, nuclear warheads and deployed and undeployed launch vehicles for launching nuclear warheads to 700, 700, 1550 and 800 respectively within seven years. Compared with the Strategic Attack Arms Reduction Treaty signed by the United States and Russia in Moscow in 2002, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has made greater efforts to reduce the number of nuclear warheads. In Obama's view, the signing of the new treaty is an important "milestone" that will determine the global arms control process in the coming years.

However, with Trump's election as President of the United States in 2016, the strategic focus of the United States has shifted to "big power competition". In the context of the Trump administration's arms expansion and nuclear weapons research and development, a series of international security treaties once signed have become a "stumbling block" that has hindered the United States from improving its military strength. Therefore, the Trump administration has begun to spare no effort in "breaking the treaty and withdrawing from it" in opposition to the strategic idea of arms control during the Obama era: in May 2018, the United States announced its unilateral withdrawal from the "Iran Nuclear Agreement"; In August 2019, announced to withdraw from the INF Treaty; In November 2020, officially withdraw from the Open Sky Treaty. "Retreat from the Treaty" not only brings a heavy blow to the international arms control system, but also makes the fate of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in jeopardy.

Since the expiration of the INF Treaty in 2019, Russia has repeatedly communicated with the United States on the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but the Trump government has always been indifferent. Just when the outside world generally believed that the treaty would be abolished, Biden's coming to power ushered in a new turn for the once elusive prospect of contract renewal.

The United States: it is urgent to "push down and rebuild"

On the occasion of announcing his candidacy for the 2020 presidential election, Biden made public his governing philosophy, that is, to serve the workers who "build the country", and to defend the American values that help bridge social differences. Although the "Trump era" has ended, the "trauma" brought by Trump to the United States has not yet been healed. In terms of internal affairs, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the United States is still continuing, and the rise of racism has exacerbated the turbulence of American society. On January 6, thousands of Trump supporters forced their way into the Capitol to prevent the Senate from confirming Biden's election as President. This violent event exposed the profound crisis and the status quo of deepening division in American society. In terms of diplomacy, the Trump administration, which pursues the concept of "America first", forced "withdrawal from the treaty", which not only made the reputation of the United States plummet, but also seriously damaged the relationship with traditional allies.  

While agreeing to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Biden, who has been in power for more than a month, signed dozens of executive orders, involving "regrouping", repairing relations, preventing and controlling epidemics and other aspects. Almost every decree is a "push back" to Trump's policy. Keeping the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is an attempt by the Biden government to advocate arms control and maintain the arms control system; It is also the starting point for it to restore the image of the United States and balance the relationship between the United States and Russia.

Since the Cold War, the two parties of the United States have always opposed each other in their arms policies. Different from the position of the Republican Party of the United States opposing arms control and supporting the arms race, the Democratic Party has always believed that arms control is conducive to locking the military advantage of the United States. Obama and Biden, both members of the Democratic camp, share the same origin in arms control policies. After nine years of political changes, Biden's position on arms control has remained unchanged. As the "political heritage" of the Obama administration, the restrictions on the number of U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty are still in line with the position of the Biden administration on arms control.

At the same time, the renewal of the treaty has positive practical significance for the United States. On the one hand, Trump's "frequent withdrawal" behavior has greatly damaged the sense of trust and identity of American allies. And Biden's renewed arms control treaty, return to the "Iran Nuclear Agreement" and a series of measures undoubtedly eased the crisis of trust in the United States. On the day after the treaty was renewed, NATO immediately welcomed and fully supported the extension of the treaty for five years, and the relations between the United States and NATO allies were temporarily stabilized. On the other hand, the modernization process of the US strategic nuclear force has lagged behind that of Russia. Some analysts pointed out that the United States and Russia have an asymmetric cycle in the modernization of nuclear weapons. If the treaty fails, Russia may gain a comparative advantage in the next few years, and extending the treaty can ensure the effective nuclear deterrence of the United States. In this context, the extension of the Treaty can continue to restrict the development of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, and strive for the opportunity for the United States to catch up.

Russia: continue to create asymmetric advantages

Unlike the repeated changes of the US government in its nuclear strategy, Russia has always taken the development of a trinity strategic nuclear force as the cornerstone of its national security. In November 2020, Putin stressed at a meeting attended by the heads of the Ministry of National Defense, federal agencies and military industrial complex: "Although the military threat is constantly changing, the trinity nuclear force is still the most important and key guarantee for Russia's security." From 2012 to 2020, the modernized deployment rate of Russia's strategic nuclear force increased from 37% to 86%. In the context of the frequent challenges to Russia's security interests by the United States, the Russian military prioritizes the development of nuclear forces that can form an asymmetric advantage over the United States, aiming to constantly increase the odds of winning the strategic game with the United States.

The renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty not only did not limit Russia's pace of accelerating the modernization of strategic nuclear forces, but also brought more dividends to Russia's arms development. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in an arms race, and the Soviet Union, trapped in the "race quagmire", finally collapsed and collapsed due to its weak strength. With the lessons learned from the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia, whose comprehensive national strength is still at a disadvantage, obviously does not want to go back to the old way of "arms race" with the United States. For Russia, the restrictions on the number of nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia in the treaty undoubtedly make the two countries jump out of the old way of "winning by quantity" in the nuclear force competition, and also win more energy for Russia, which "wins by quality".

As an arms control treaty formulated 10 years ago, many of the contents of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty have lagged behind the times. In recent years, Russia has invested a lot of energy in the research and development of new strategic weapons. A series of new strategic weapons, including the "Poseidon" unmanned submersible and the "Dagger" hypersonic air to ground nuclear missile, are not within the scope of the weapon definition of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but these strategic weapons are powerful with the help of nuclear power. In the future, with the rapid development of Russia in the research and development of new strategic weapons, the restriction of the treaty on Russia's strategic nuclear strength will only become weaker and weaker with the content unchanged. In the context of the rapid deterioration of Russia US relations, in order to create asymmetrical strategic advantages, Russia will go further and further on the road of developing strategic nuclear forces.

In the new development cycle, US Russia relations cannot escape the "freezing point"

With the inauguration of the Biden administration, US Russia relations have entered a new development cycle. However, although the United States and Russia have reached a consensus on the renewal of the arms control treaty, the fundamental differences between the two countries in strategic awareness, international order and ideology have not been eliminated.

The "tension between the US and Russia" will also intensify the military confrontation between the US and Russia. After winning the election, Biden repeatedly stressed that it is necessary to work with European allies to make up for NATO's military disadvantages in the front line of the "three Baltic countries - Poland - the Black Sea" and to curb Russia's military expansion. Shortly after Biden came to power, the US and Turkish troops arrived at the Black Sea, Russia's gateway, for joint exercises, which the US claimed was to strengthen NATO's "asymmetric advantage". The Biden team has returned to the old way of "strengthening the frontier military presence against Russia". In the future, the confrontation between Russia and NATO on the frontier will be inevitable. (Zhang Jingsong, Huang Diqing)

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