If one drinks water, he knows whether it is warm or cold. As one of the important participants in the market, the market performance and market confidence fed back by real estate brokers can directly reflect the "joys and sorrows" of the current property market. Recently, Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center released a survey report on broker market confidence in December 2019, which is analyzed from multiple dimensions such as market transactions, buyers and sellers' mentality, and broker commission income. The report shows that in 2019, the market turnover was flat, with more than 1/3 of brokers trading less than 2 sets, and the transaction cycle was mostly within three months. By comparing the turnover of brokers in the past three months, it can be found that the overall turnover of brokers in December 2019 is very pessimistic near the end of the year, with no turnover accounting for more than 60%, and more than three brokerages accounting for less than 10%.

For the market situation in 2020, both managers and brokers predict or expect it to be better than 2019. Generally speaking, for the employees of small stores, they are more looking forward to a better market environment; For larger stores, it can be said that the relatively good performance in 2019 has boosted their confidence in the market in 2020 to a certain extent.

Broker: over 60% transactions in December

The report shows that by comparing the turnover of brokers in the past three months, it can be found that the overall turnover of brokers in December 2019 is very pessimistic near the end of the year, with no deal accounting for more than 60%, and more than three broker deals accounting for less than 10%. In December, the proportion of non transaction brokers was 63%, an increase of 29 percentage points month on month, with a significant increase in the proportion; Brokers who sold 1-2 sets accounted for 30%, 18 percentage points lower than the previous month; In December, the proportion of broker ranges with 3-5 and more than 6 deals narrowed by 6 percentage points on a month on month basis. The turnover of brokers in December was the worst in the last three months, mainly due to the low enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market and the low transaction activity of second-hand housing market towards the end of the year.

The average transaction price in December was mainly down. Brokers reported that the average transaction price down accounted for 46%, an increase of 14 percentage points month on month; Secondly, the average transaction price was the highest, which was 33%, but narrowed by 13 percentage points month on month; The average transaction price rose by 20%. In December, brokers reported that the proportion of the average transaction price decline increased significantly, and the average transaction price of both the flat and rising transaction prices narrowed. In December, the average transaction price fell mainly below.

The broker's commission income is even less optimistic due to the decline of transactions, with more than 1/2 of the broker's income below 5000 yuan. In addition, in December, the proportion of the number of houses entrusted by brokers to owners moved to a low level, and the willingness of owners to list for sale decreased. The proportion of houses without entrustment was nearly 40%. In December, the proportion of houses without entrustment by brokers was up to 38%, and the proportion increased significantly; The proportion of 1-2 houses entrusted decreased significantly compared with that of last month, with a decrease of 15 percentage points; The proportion of more than 3 units of entrusted houses narrowed slightly. It can be seen from the proportion range of the number of houses entrusted by owners that in December, the number of owners listing for sale decreased, the number of brokers accepting entrustments moved to a low level, and the proportion of non entrustment increased significantly.

Seller: Mainly sell at reduced price

According to the feedback of brokers participating in the survey, 27% of the owners did not adjust their prices in December, 73% of the owners did, and the number of owners who did was 5 percentage points lower than that in November. The proportion of owners who cut prices in December narrowed to 54%, 6 percentage points lower than the previous month. It can be seen that owners still lack confidence in the market in December, mainly selling at reduced prices.

In December, brokers and managers felt the same about the market price adjustment. The market was dominated by price adjustment, accounting for about 50%, followed by the majority of unadjusted houses, and the lowest proportion of the houses with price increases. In December, the prices of the owners served by the management personnel were similar to those of the owners who did not, and the prices of the owners served by the brokers were mainly lower. The management personnel's feedback on the owner's price adjustment behavior that the price has not been adjusted and the proportion of price increase is slightly different from that of brokers. The main reason is that the management personnel have a wider contact with the market, more extensive understanding of the market, and more comprehensive feedback on the owner's price adjustment.

Among the owners who raised the price, more than 56% of the owners raised the price by less than 30000 yuan, more than 22% by 30000 yuan to 50000 yuan, and less than 4% by 100000 yuan to 200000 yuan; Among the owners who lowered the price, 49% of the owners adjusted the price below 30000 yuan, 21% of the owners adjusted the price between 30000 yuan and 50000 yuan, 24% of the owners adjusted the price between 50000 yuan and 100000 yuan, and 6% of the owners adjusted the price above 100000 yuan. It is obvious from the price adjustment range that in the price adjustment range of 50000 to 100000 yuan, the proportion of price reduction in this range is larger than that of price increase in this range.

According to the feedback of brokers and managers on the mentality of the owners of houses sold in December, including house changing customers and investment customers, customers who are not in a hurry to sell still account for the majority, both about 50%; For owners who are anxious to sell, brokers feedback accounted for 39%, of which 17% are anxious to change houses for sale, and 22% are anxious to sell because they are worried about the decline of house prices; The feedback from management personnel accounted for a higher proportion, 50%, of which 23% were anxious to change houses for sale, and 27% were anxious to sell because of the decline of house prices. On the whole, the mentality of the property owners is relatively stable.

Buyer: a strong wait-and-see mood

According to the regional distribution of customers who bought houses in December fed back by brokers, brokers and managers had similar regional sources of customers. In general, local customers are still the main ones, which is mainly affected by the local purchase restriction policy. Among them, 50% of the house buyers are from the city, 23% of the house buyers are from other cities in the province, and 20% of the house buyers are from other provinces.

Specifically, the first time and second time improved housing demand is dominated by buyers, who are highly motivated to purchase houses for the first time in the market at the end of the year. Among them, first-time house purchase accounted for 58% - 64%, secondary improvement house accounted for 29% - 30%, and investment house purchase accounted for less than 5%. Compared with November, the proportion of first-time home buyers in December has increased significantly. The pace of market entry for first-time home buyers has accelerated towards the end of the year, and the demand for secondary improvement is still on the sidelines.

Brokers and managers who participated in the survey gave relatively close feedback on the mentality of buyers' customers. The proportion of buyers who kept the attitude of "keep watching with money and not rush to sell" was 52% - 67%, and the proportion of buyers who kept the attitude of "choose houses with money and sell right away" was 20% - 23%, indicating that customers "just look and understand the market" Accounting for 10% - 20%. On the whole, customers who bought houses at the end of the year were still in a wait-and-see mood and were not anxious to enter the market.

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