People's Daily Online, Beijing, April 25 (reporter Xu Weina) "In the first quarter of the macroeconomic data, although the overall data exceeded the consensus expectations, we still need to remain objective and rational." Recently, Liu Chang, a researcher from the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the People's Daily Online reporter, The key words in the first quarter of China's economic response can be summarized as "accumulating strength", which conveys the warmth of China's economy: at present, many positive factors are accumulating energy for China's economic development, the marginal improvement of macroeconomic operation, and China is at the turning point of economic recovery.

The economic data of the first quarter have been released one after another, and how does it reflect the economic trend?

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing industry grew 6.7% in the first quarter. In addition, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5%, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.

"In the process of economic recovery, the manufacturing industry usually recovers before the service industry, and investment usually recovers before consumption." Liu Chang analyzed that the production recovery of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter was gratifying, but the risks of the real estate market in some regions have not been completely eliminated, and it takes time for the investment growth rate of the real estate industry to change from negative to positive. In addition, the contrast between the growth of the manufacturing industry and the growth of the service industry still exists, and the turbulence of the international situation may also pose a challenge to the external demand of the manufacturing industry.

How to view macro data changes and market trends? Liu Chang said that the macro economy is showing a positive trend, and the "temperature difference" between macro data and micro feelings should be viewed rationally, which is in line with the objective law of economic development. There are two main reasons: on the one hand, the recovery of manufacturing production played a leading role in the economic growth in the first quarter, but it is usually difficult to be perceived by the public; On the other hand, consumption and real estate have a greater impact on the public's perception of the heat of macroeconomic operation, but they have not yet fully recovered.

Specifically, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China increased by 4.7% year on year, slightly lower than the growth rate of GDP at constant prices, the consumer price index (CPI) was flat year on year, and the core CPI after deducting food and energy prices rose by 0.7% year on year. In March, CPI rose 0.1% year on year and fell 1.0% month on month.

"Affected by seasonal factors, the recovery of the consumer market represented by contact consumption has slowed down. The real estate market in some regions has not yet fully stabilized, and the wealth effect makes residents still cautious in their daily consumption." Liu Chang said, therefore, It is also necessary to objectively look at the gap between individuals' perception of economic operation and the economic recovery reflected by macroeconomic data.

Looking forward to the macroeconomic situation in the next stage, Liu Chang said that while China should continue to maintain a certain investment intensity and intensity, it should also focus on residents' income and housing price expectations, and improve the amplification effect of residents' income expectations through substantive policy measures, which will help to improve residents' consumption mentality and actual consumption level at this stage, So as to make the foundation of macroeconomic operation more stable and reliable.

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