cycle

Every investor wants to find out where he is in the cycle. In other words, people are eager to know whether they should invest more and stay in the market next step, or whether they should sell decisively and leave the market. Everyone knows that the market cycle fluctuates. However, most investors only think about the first level of shallow thinking of the market cycle. This book will take you to the second level of shallow thinking of the market cycle, teach you to understand the past cycle laws, see the current cycle position, see through the future cycle trend, and gain the investment layout experience of a few winners through the financial crisis and long-term victory over the market. Howard? Max is a value investor. He subdivided the cycle into economic cycle, government intervention economic cycle, enterprise profit cycle, investor psychology and emotional pendulum, risk attitude cycle, credit cycle, non-performing creditor's rights cycle, real estate cycle and market cycle, and elaborated on each cycle in detail. Among them, the author summarized his investment experience of more than 50 years, and put forward a bright view: people's decisions have a great impact on the economic cycle, enterprise cycle, and market cycle, and people's decisions are not scientific. He believes that the tendency of people to go to extremes will never end. Therefore, these extremes will eventually need to be corrected, rather than the cycle will change. Investors need to be alert to the idea of "this time is different". This means that if investors can understand the cycle, they can find a good opportunity to obtain high returns.

Howard Max ·Theory ·209000 words

 Economics of Milk Cola (full edition)

The economics of milk and cola (full version) is partly based on these essays written by students (of course, Professor Frank has made revisions), and the other part is written by him. In the 1990s, when I was studying at Cornell University, my friend told me that Professor Robert Frank's economics class was lively and lively, which was very popular with my classmates. So I went to listen to it. Sure enough, there are often bursts of laughter in the classroom, which should be humorous witticisms. Unfortunately, my English listening is too poor, and I can even listen to the principle with a blind guess. I don't know much about humorous words, so I can only accompany dry laughter, and I am half a step slow. Professor Robert Frank often asks students to write down their economic phenomena in class and analyze them with economic methods. Those who write well are often praised. The content of Milk Coke Economics (Full Edition) is to use the principles and methods of economics to explain various phenomena in life, and to deepen the understanding of economics through these examples and explanations. This is also Professor Frank's method of teaching economics. Students like to listen to this method, write books, and readers like to read. This book focuses on the phenomenon that we are used to but do not notice in reality. For example, why is the milk box square and the coke bottle round; Why does the cheap water in the bar charge for free peanuts; Why do female models earn more than male models.

Robert Frank ·Popular Readings ·118000 words

 Thinking Mode of Economics (Complete)
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The Way of Thinking in Economics Economics is not complicated at all, and it is not difficult to understand. What bothers us is the pretended hard language and the form that keeps people away from thousands of miles. There are no formulas, charts, difficult terms and boring empirical evidence in this book. Thomas Sawyer uses the language and cases that are most close to daily life to explain the economic thinking mode that is not necessarily fully mastered by doctors of economics, so that all people can experience the barrier free reading, and learn the professional knowledge system and analysis tool of economics invisibly, Let ordinary people no longer be confused by vague political rhetoric and obscure economic terms, and grasp the operation law of economic society. Through this book, we will learn about price, investment, international trade and other aspects of knowledge. We will also remain alert and suspicious of the statements of the media, politicians, and the public. We will no longer uncritically use "poor" and "rich" to distinguish different groups of people. We will also have a new understanding of rent control, trade balance, the gap between rich and poor, and statistical data. Why can't the Thinking Mode of Economics · Practical Application and Rent Control Law effectively limit rents? Is medical insurance the culprit for the decline of medical service quality? Why does the policy aimed at gender equality aggravate gender discrimination instead? It is not difficult to find that the actual effects of many decisions often run counter to their original intentions. What affects the quality of decision-making, and what can economics do about it? Economics is not only the numbers, charts and formulas in books, but also the real life closely related to politics, society and psychology. When we go to work, pay taxes, buy a house, invest, save, see a doctor, we should all become economists. In this book, Thomas Sawyer will lead the reader to re-examine the social problems related to personal life, such as housing, medical care, employment, immigration, discrimination, etc., from the perspective of economics, to peel off the cocoon and see the economic logic behind the decision-making mistakes. After reading this book, you will learn to think like an economist, get rid of the shackles of short-sighted thinking, and be able to put forward unique insights with both height and depth when facing new problems.

Thomas Sawyer ·Theory ·607000 words

Note to Chapter 42 of the latest chapter 2019-02-27 14:15:41
 Scarcity: How we get into poverty and busyness

It is a joint work of lifelong professor of Harvard University and winner of the "MacArthur Genius Award", Seid Hill Mullainason, and psychology professor Eld Shafir of Princeton University. It is another blockbuster new work of behavioral economics after the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow". The Financial Times must read the top ten business books in 2013. In the process of long-term research on the poor and poverty alleviation, Sidhil Mullainason found that his anxiety was similar to that of the poor: the poor were short of money, and he was short of time. On the basis of this phenomenon, he carried out a lot of laboratory research and practical investigation with Eld Shafir, a professor of psychology at Princeton University, but found an amazing truth in the world: the poor people will always lack money, while the busy people will always lack time. However, further research confirms that these are surface phenomena. Because even if the poor are given a sum of money and some time to procrastinate, they cannot become rich and efficient. In fact, in the long-term scarcity of resources (money and time), people have formed a "restricted view", and can only see things in the "pipe". Although this may bring us "focus dividends" (short-term wealth or efficiency), in the long run, this "focus" will lead us to "trade-off thinking", Constantly increasing our bandwidth burden - when the value of one yuan has produced a huge difference between the poor and the rich, when the street vendors in Chennai, India, are trapped in an endless pressure of borrowing, when everyone is in a "juggling" state of multitasking... the most rational economic model and behavior will no longer conform to their own internal logic. Eventually, scarcity will capture our brain, gradually making us lose cognitive ability and executive control, and become more stupid and impulsive.

Seidhill Mullainason ·Popular Readings ·145000 words

 The Nature of Poverty: Why We Can't Get rid of Poverty (Revised Edition)
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They were once said to be the burden of the white people and the victims of the inferior policies of the weak countries. They are the bottom 1 billion people, living below the poverty line of US $0.99 per day. The trillions of dollars of aid failed to save them from the scourge. They are still trapped in the poverty trap, and the way forward is unclear... For five years, in order to find out why poverty occurs and what specific problems poverty can lead to, so as to keep the poor trapped in the strange circle of "poverty trap", the two authors went deep into the world of the poor in more than five countries on five continents, The survey was conducted in 18 countries and regions with the largest concentration of poor people to explore the real causes of poverty from many aspects of their daily life, education, health, entrepreneurship, assistance, government, NGOs and other aspects. At the same time, the book also reflects on some popular views on poverty, such as the more aid the poor have, the stronger their dependence is, and external aid does not work. They pointed out that over the years, most of the anti-poverty policies ended in failure, because people's understanding of poverty was not deep enough, and good steel was not used in the cutting edge. Through a large number of examples, they put forward some practical suggestions to find those poverty alleviation programs that can stand the test, providing important guidance for policymakers, philanthropists, politicians and all those who hope to lift the world out of poverty.

Abhijit Banerjee (France) Esther Duflo (India) ·International economy ·173000 words

 Currency war
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The Federal Reserve under the leadership of Ben Bernanke is making the biggest gamble in financial history. Since 2007, the Federal Reserve has resisted economic collapse through short-term interest rate cuts and free borrowing. Eventually, interest rates returned to zero and the Federal Reserve ran out of ammunition. Then, in 2008, the Federal Reserve found a new ammunition: quantitative easing. Although the Federal Reserve claims that the plan is to ease the financial situation by reducing long-term interest rates, in essence, it is just a money printing program to stimulate economic growth. A very real danger is that the printing of money by the Federal Reserve will suddenly turn into hyperinflation. To make matters worse, none of this happened in a vacuum. The impact of printing dollars is global; Through the implementation of quantitative easing policy, the Federal Reserve in fact announced a currency war to the world. Although the scale of the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars may be unprecedented, the currency war is not unheard of. There have been currency wars - twice in the 20th century alone - and the outcome has always been bad. In the best case scenario, currency wars cause some countries to steal economic growth from their trading partners. In the worst case, the scramble for resources led to aggression and war, which degenerated into inflation, recession, revenge and violence. A country cannot embark on the road to prosperity by devaluing its currency.

James Ricards ·Theory ·162000 words

 Prosperity and decline

Prosperity and Decline tells the most important social factors that promote economic development in each historical period in brilliant and concise language along the time sequence of American economic development. This book discusses important topics in the American economic history. Whether it is the role played by the southern slavery before the outbreak of the Civil War, the actual effect of Roosevelt's New Deal, or even the severe impact of globalization and its impact on the public, it gives readers a strong shock. But what is most impressive is the amazing energy released by millions of ordinary Americans, which is driving the United States to the peak of wealth and power. According to the two authors, the core reason why the United States shows its unique talent is that it can accommodate the consequences of creative destruction. The trend of breaking the old and creating the new has never declined, and new population and new ideas always bring progress. Although creative destruction often leads to chaotic consequences, it has raised the living standard of Americans to a level unimaginable by previous generations. The author believes that in the face of losses caused by creative destruction, Americans are always willing to sacrifice for gains. If we cannot recognize this fact, we cannot explain the rise of the United States, nor how the United States has responded to previous challenges. In recent decades, the productivity of the United States has stagnated. The author believes that this is a good time to learn from historical experience. Whether the United States can maintain its leading position or give it up should be determined from history.

Alan Greenspan Adrian Wooldridge ·International economy ·288000 words

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