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[Pre market pre judgment verification] The SSE index hit 3310 points for the third time, but still failed. The future trend has three directions. First, the main board continues to rise, leading the GEM to 3310 points; Second, the GEM dragged down the main board and broke the box; Third, the main board and GEM take turns to maintain the box trend.
In my opinion, the probability of continuing to follow the structural market in the short term is relatively high, because it is now a white horse blue chip index, and domestic investors can play with the theme, but it is not difficult. The main reason is that the trading volume is not large. It is impossible to shrink the volume beyond the previous 3310 points. Even on the station, the volume price deviates, and it will also come down.
[Today's trend] On February 22 (Wednesday), the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with three major indexes all falling slightly and the Shanghai index falling below 3300 points. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.43%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.57%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.74%. The total turnover of the two markets was 783.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 138 billion yuan from 921.4 billion yuan on the previous trading day. On the basis of yesterday's 3% decline, Liangneng has continued to shrink by 15% today.
In terms of sectors, millimeter wave radar, satellite navigation, paper making, instrumentation and other sectors were among the top gainers, while POE film, perovskite battery, solid state battery, sodium ion battery and other sectors were among the top losers. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 2400 stocks in the two markets fell.
【 Funds 】 Stimulated by the news this Monday, the mainboard changed, and the volume of energy slightly increased by nearly 4%, but it did not reach the "trillion" level
(2023-02-21 15:30)
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[Pre order Pre judgment Verification] The biggest news at the weekend was that the Shanghai and Shenzhen mainboards implemented the registration system today. Today, the registration of new regulations was launched, and the market rebounded from the neck line. The market is in the stage of digestion and adaptation to the new regulations.
The full registration system will be officially implemented, which will have a significant impact on the medium and long-term ecology of the A-share market. High quality white horse blue chip, growth oriented sci-tech innovation enterprises will be more favored by funds, while the value of poor performance stocks and shell resources will continue to decline.
[Today's trend] On February 21 (Tuesday), the market fluctuated and differentiated throughout the day. The Shanghai Index rose to 3300 points, and the GEM Index was adjusted. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 0.49%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 0.12%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.44%. The total turnover of the two markets was 921.4 billion yuan, 28.4 billion yuan less than the 949.8 billion yuan of the previous trading day. On the basis of yesterday's 3.9% amplification, the volume has shrunk by 3% today.
In terms of sectors, nonferrous metals, coal, automobile, steel and other sectors led the increase, while mobile games, media, beverage manufacturing, ChatGPT concept and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks rose more than fell, and more than 2800 stocks in the two markets rose.
【 Funds 】 Yesterday's news stimulated the motherboard to change, which could be slightly amplified by nearly 4%, but it did not reach the "trillion" level. It was said yesterday that the market is still hesitating. Different from speculating in small cap stocks, pulling the index and the main board needs to be matched in quantity. If the main board market cannot stand up to the "trillion" trading volume, it will be difficult to last. I want to shrink today
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[Pre market Pre judgment Verification] According to this trend, the GEM is expected to test the low point in December last year, but the SSE 2000 will soon stabilize next week. Therefore, after the sharp fall, the major indexes will diverge. After the slump, it will take time for market sentiment to repair. Today's annual line is At 3200, it is still going down. Next week, there will be a rebound at the annual line, and then it will fall again.
[Trend today] On February 20 (Monday), the market rose in shock throughout the day, led by the main boards of the two cities. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Index had risen 2.06%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 2.03%, and the GEM Index had risen 1.28%. The total turnover of the two markets was 949.8 billion yuan, up 35.7 billion yuan from 914.1 billion yuan the previous trading day. On the basis of shrinking by 11% last Friday, Liangneng has expanded by 3.9% today.
In terms of sectors, home appliances, securities, ChatGPT, mobile games and other sectors were among the top gainers, while New Crown Pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors were among the top losers. Individual stocks rose more than fell, and more than 3800 stocks in both cities rose.
【 Funds 】 Today, the volume of energy has slightly increased by nearly 4%, and it has not reached the "trillion" level, indicating that the market is still hesitant to wait and see. Different from speculating in small cap stocks, pulling the index and the main board needs to be matched in quantity. If the main board market cannot stand up to the "trillion" trading volume, it will be difficult to last.
Wind data shows that northbound funds entered the market in the afternoon and bought 6.003 billion yuan in a net manner for three consecutive days; Of which, Shanghai Stock Connect net bought 5.804 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect net bought 1.99 billion yuan
(2023-02-17 15:30)
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[Pre disk pre judgment verification] First, let's review my pre judgment, which is mainly based on technology.
I pointed out on Tuesday that there are two hidden dangers that need to be solved when the market is high before the impact: one is volume price deviation, and the other is MACD top deviation. From the perspective of trading volume, the market continued to rebound today, but the trading volume could not keep up with it, and it has shrunk, which is a deviation between quantity and price. When the index is high (3310 points) before the impact in the future, the deviation between quantity and price will not go far.
Judging from the MACD indicators, the CSI 2000 index has now triggered three levels of top deviations of 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 60 minutes. Tomorrow, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will also form a 15 minute top deviation, It indicates that the probability of adjustment is increasing 。 In case of adjustment, the adjustment pressure of the SSE 2000 index is greater than that of the main board. Because the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is only the top deviation of the 15 minute level, while the Guozheng 2000 has triggered the top deviation of three levels.
Yesterday, the market hit 3310 points again without success, the highest was 3308 points. As a result, it triggered a late dive, and the CSI 2000 index fell the most, down 2.27%. Some people still said it was a bull market pullback. Yesterday, I pointed out again that today, there are more than 4500 stocks falling, and the annual line is still going down. How can it be a bull market? This will not happen in a bull market. Even if the bull market is bad, the main force will take the bad as good. Only in a bear market, a high point is an opportunity for shipment.
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[Pre order Pre judgment Verification] Technically, two hidden dangers need to be solved when the pre shock is high: one is the deviation of volume and price, and the other is the deviation of MACD top. From the perspective of trading volume, the market continued to rebound today, but the trading volume could not keep up with it, and it has shrunk, which is a deviation between quantity and price. In the future, when the index is high (3310 points) before the impact, if the trading volume continues to shrink, or still can not stand on the "trillion", the trend of volume price deviation will not go far.
Judging from the MACD indicators, the CSI 2000 index has now triggered three levels of top deviations of 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 60 minutes. If the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index continues to shrink tomorrow, it will also form a 15 minute top deviation, indicating that the probability of adjustment is increasing. In case of adjustment, the adjustment pressure of the SSE 2000 index is greater than that of the main board. Because the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is only the top deviation of the 15 minute level, while the Guozheng 2000 has triggered the top deviation of the three levels.
[Today's trend] On February 15 (Wednesday), the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day. All three major indexes fell slightly, led by the GEM index. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.39%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.25%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.7%. The total turnover of the two markets was 937.3 billion yuan, an increase of 23.3 billion yuan over the 914 billion yuan of the previous trading day. On the basis of yesterday's contraction of 6.6%, Liangneng has expanded by 2.5% today.
In terms of sectors, ChatGPT, high pressure fast charging, East Digital West Computing, and ICT ranked first, while CRO, glyphosate, logistics, salt lake lithium extraction and other sectors led the way
