The property market is still far from collapse

                                                /Long term

Recently, the theory of property market crash has become so popular that it seems a little breathless as if it is surrounded by all kinds of mainstream media. However, careful analysis and observation show that most of the articles on the theory of property market crash come from foreign media and financial media. At first sight, they are short sellers. There is nothing professional or scientific to say, and the arguments and opinions are nonsense, But they were forced to graft together.

Is China's property market really going to crash?

The author has been thinking for days and nights, but has not found any signs of collapse. Looking at the current situation of the property market, it seems that there are still 18000 yuan to collapse

        Three poisons of falling house prices are nonsense

                                        /Long term

Today, an article in the "Securities Daily" titled "Three Kinds of Poisons Hidden in House Price Decline" was reprinted by various major media. At first, it was a trick of shorting institutions. Although I also expected the house price to fall, I firmly opposed to winning eyeballs and interests by deceiving the public.

The first poison is that Yu'e Bao and Hong Kong stocks divert funds There is some truth in this analysis, but it can't be absolutely. Last year, Yu'e Bao was so diverted. Why did the house price soar in the second half of last year? Obviously, relying on one Yu'e Bao Lai to divert the credit scale of several trillion yuan from the bank is simply a matter of futility. It is more likely that you ate more steamed bread and bought more cigarettes to divert the real estate funds. Is this possible? Daydreaming nonsense

            The disadvantages of loan restriction outweigh the advantages

                                              /Long term

After the introduction of the loan restriction policy, investment speculation was once curbed, but so far, the housing price has not been lowered in the slightest. From this result, the loan restriction is not very beneficial to reducing housing prices.

On the contrary, the loan restriction has increasingly shown its drawbacks.

First of all, the loan restriction has frozen the second-hand housing market, which cannot effectively stimulate the activity of the second-hand housing market. This has led to the continued popularity of the primary housing market. If the loan restriction continues, the primary housing market will continue to be popular until the housing price rises to the sky.

            Is the end of developers coming?

                                        /Long term

At present, developers are most worried about bank credit rather than customer problems. For example, with the arrival of the deadline, they will no longer lend three hundred million yuan and five hundred million yuan of the previous credit, even though the cost of lending has nearly doubled; The other is the tightening of loans for customers to buy houses. Most banks have raised their interest rates by more than 20%, and the lending time has increased from the previous two months to four or six months.

Ordinarily, with such repression, developers should slash prices, customers should retreat, and the property market should collapse, but the result is quite different from people's expectations.

First of all, the Earth King continued to appear. This wave started in the second half of last year

                    Real estate ushers in the competition generation

                                        /Long term

One day, I chatted with a newly graduated student and he said that he had also bought a house in a high-end community (the price was more than 10000 yuan). I was surprised. How could he afford such a high price? He said that he was 25 years old and had just graduated from college. His father did business in his hometown and bought it for him directly. He didn't have to pay back his monthly payment.

I suddenly came to realize that the high price of housing has most of their contributions!

        "Cheater Marketing" of Big Brand Developers

                                            /Long term

There are many kinds of real estate marketing, and "fraud marketing" is the most difficult to prevent and deal with.

Case 1: Zhengzhou Greenland Center

When promoting and selling the Twin Towers - Green Space Center, we adopted the "extremely bad swindler marketing" approach. The first step was to raise the price of the other two final projects - Qianxi Plaza to 50000 to 60000 yuan/m2, and the window of green space to 20000 yuan/m2, and then release smoke bombs to declare that the Green Space Center is a high-end office building higher than Qianxi Plaza and the window of green space, The price should be at least 30-60000 yuan/square meter