Just as the improvement of the intrinsic value of stocks mainly depends on the controlling shareholders of listed companies, ordinary investors are more concerned about the rise and fall of stock prices and are not interested in the fundamentals of stocks. Similarly, foreign exchange Market participants have a stake in the price change of the exchange rate, and pay more attention to the price change of the exchange rate. Few people care about the improvement of the internal value of RMB.

    The exchange rate is the price comparison between different currencies and the result of looking in the mirror. Although money is a special commodity, its market price can still be found through the foreign exchange market according to the law of value and the relationship between supply and demand. This mechanism to form the market price of exchange rate is the market mechanism of exchange rate.

    Exchange rate is the result of the game between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. According to the answer given by the market, the supply and demand sides should accept it. Why does the RMB exchange rate often cause big waves and disputes?

    On July 21, 2005, the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism was launched. Under the guiding principle of "initiative, controllability and gradualness" of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate started the gradual reform of slow appreciation.

    However, with the gradual appreciation lasting for seven years, China's economy has become the second largest in the world, and its economic integration into the world has deepened, its negative effects have become more and more obvious, and calls for the formation of a market-oriented exchange rate are also growing. But how to conduct exchange rate marketization

Some time ago, the news media continuously reported that 11 million jin of Chinese cabbage sold at a low price of 1.5 cents per jin on 18000 mu in Sihe Township, Sihong County, but encountered serious unsalable problems. A similar situation has also occurred in various agricultural products, such as citrus, jujube, persimmon, radish, etc. throughout the country. Low prices and unsalable markets have become the most popular topic.

Many people attribute this to the fact that under the conditions of market economy, due to asymmetric information, producers are easy to "herd together" to pursue a product with considerable profits in the early stage, and supply exceeds demand, leading to the price of such goods falling back until they can not be sold successfully. The reason for the high exposure rate of agricultural products is that agricultural products must be sold in the current season, and the storage time is limited. However, no matter how low the producers sell, the middlemen have no intention of underwriting. However, consumers feel that prices are rising too fast and can not enjoy the benefits of producers' price reduction. According to a survey released by the People's Bank of China recently, 68.7% of residents think prices are "high and unacceptable".

The difference between purchase and sale price is so large, and demand also exists. Why do middlemen abandon it as if they were acting? Seems to be rich in profits, but no one is willing to eat its cheese? What robbed the profit between purchase and sale, and ultimately prevented the completion of the transaction? The reason why middlemen are unwilling to take on the role of intermediaries to help the supply and demand parties complete the transaction is, of course, due to the fact that they feel unprofitable, and even may suffer losses: from the beginning of the transaction to the end of the transaction, they must bear a large amount of transportation costs, wear and tear costs, administrative costs, roads

The value of RMB has been overdrawn, and the exchange rate is the price form of RMB. The fluctuation trend of the two is not always consistent.

Kostolani, a German securities expert, has a wonderful analogy: the relationship between value and price in the stock market is like the relationship between people and dogs when walking dogs. Sometimes the price is higher than the value, sometimes lower than the value, but sooner or later it will return to the value; Just like when walking a dog, the dog sometimes runs in front of people and sometimes behind people. When walking a dog, people usually move forward slowly, while the dog moves from left to right and from east to west. Just like the fluctuation of stock prices is often far greater than the fluctuation of fundamentals.

The RMB exchange rate is also applicable to this analogy. Moreover, the composite mechanism of the exchange rate is more complex than that of stocks, because this dog is not jogging along the country lane, but running on the bustling road of the international market, where many countries' exchange rates have been released, including a dog king called the US dollar, who will bite at some time, Occasionally, there are countless capital hunters aiming at the gun, making no attempt to prevent the unexpected disasters caused by the endless political events. It takes more trouble to return to the owner of value. As a special monetary commodity, RMB also follows the economic law that price fluctuates around the value. Foreign currency and RMB are "mirrors" to each other, and their value is only evaluated and valued in the form of foreign currency. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations and two-way fluctuations are common, and there is nothing to be surprised about.

The market has a misunderstanding; Since the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and value is inconsistent, it is left to the market

RMB/USD exchange rate Thursday (12 month eight day ) Continuous lunch seven Reached the limit of decline in trading days . Seven fall limits are very attractive , Plus media rendering , Invisibly magnify public fear . But the meaning of RMB exchange rate limit and stock limit is very different , According to the rules of Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchange , Seven consecutive drop limits for one share , The stock market value of 100000 yuan has shrunk four point seven nine 10000 yuan , Fall off 51% ； It's also 100000 yuan twelve month

Chongqing Morning Post

In the past July, the eyes of the world were fixed on the United States, worried that the two parties in the United States were fighting openly and secretly for electoral chips, and whether they could cooperate to pass the debt ceiling as scheduled was uncertain. US Treasuries are global bond As the most important investment and transaction product in the market, the US treasury bond market will affect the stability of the international monetary and financial system and influence the global economic recovery. Creditors, including China, continue to pay attention to the default risk of the US national debt. They worry that if the US fails to raise the debt ceiling as scheduled, it will not only mean that the US government will be in a dilemma of no money to operate, but also mean that the US government will be unable to repay the principal and interest of the matured national debt, which will give a fatal blow to the assets of the creditor countries The price of commodities dragged into the abyss, triggering a series of domino effects.

Now the US debt crisis has landed, but the world economy is in another situation; The US debt is an immortal monster. It is bad not to raise the debt ceiling, but it may not be good once it is raised. although dollar However, its role as a major world currency in global commodity circulation, payment and settlement has not changed, and its function as a means of storage has not been replaced for the time being. The US NPC and CPPCC reduced the repayment risk of world financial assets through the debt ceiling, but increased the volatility of financial assets

Chongqing Morning Post

The speed of RMB internationalization has accelerated significantly. At present, the overseas RMB has reached more than one trillion yuan, and the cross-border settlement volume of RMB in the first quarter alone reached 360.3 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of the total volume of last year. It is expected that the total cross-border settlement volume of RMB in the whole year is expected to triple last year. The cross-border settlement of RMB has received practical results, but its negative effects are also emerging. All parties should pay attention to it, consider the issue of RMB internationalization in a balanced way, and be alert to the danger of monetary policy objectives and financial security due to the rapid pace of RMB internationalization.

The original purpose of RMB cross-border settlement is to control domestic liquidity, reduce imported inflation pressure and ease external capital inflows. However, the premise of RMB internationalization is that RMB must have the function of payment hand for cross-border settlement, investment function of long-term capital, and storage function as a country's currency reserve. The internationalization of RMB by the central bank is to let RMB build a reservoir abroad, which is used to store RMB; Some more pipes will be built to allow water to flow freely, which is called "RMB cross-border settlement". However, few countries take the initiative to use RMB as a storage currency, and RMB government bonds have not been opened to the outside world for the time being. As a result, the function of the savings pool is basically lost, and excessive water pipe flow will overflow. Once the wind blows, overseas RMB will flow back home, which will have an impact on monetary policy and boost domestic inflation.

Chongqing Morning Post  

A few days ago, the media reported that from 2003 to the end of 2010, the central bank's accumulated cost of hedging foreign exchange funds was 1083.06 billion yuan. During the same period, the central bank's foreign exchange reserves increased by US $25609 billion.

Since foreign exchange cannot be circulated in China and RMB will continue to appreciate, the central bank is bound to become the receiver of foreign exchange. This is not only a defect in the system design, but also a practical frustration. The central bank naturally has three functions: "government bank", "bank bank", and "issuing bank", which determines that it has almost unlimited responsibility to the financial market.

It has long been no secret that the central bank has a large amount of hedging costs, but the figures released by the media this time are still surprising. The central bank seems to have been a Lei Feng in obscurity for many years; Because of receiving foreign exchange, more RMB needs to be cashed into circulation; The circulation of RMB is in flood, forced to issue notes to hedge and raise deposit reserves to tighten the circulation of RMB; Interest shall be paid to absorb the circulating RMB into the central bank. The return on assets of the central bank is far from covering the hedging costs of trillions of yuan, and the finance department is unable to bear these losses. Overissuance of money has become the only option.

It is a bogus question to discuss whether the central bank needs to manage and operate foreign exchange reserves. Under the current mechanism, 3 trillion yuan of foreign exchange reserves corresponds to 20 trillion yuan. Except for the central bank, no other department can provide such a huge amount of funds for foreign exchange settlement and sales; method

2005 China Economic Weekly

When the tide of globalization spreads, which market can stand alone? When multinational companies come with capital, how to move "God" becomes their goal, and the sinicization of "Facebook" alone is bound to not move "God".

The evolution history of the market is a history of human evolution. In the agricultural society, it depends on land and labor force to conquer the world; In the industrial age, it relied on machinery and capital to walk alone in the Jianghu; In the IT era, in addition to these elements, we also need to use wisdom to earn wealth. To put it in a popular phrase, people who want to mix must be a bit "cultural".

It is against this background that the localization strategy of multinational enterprises has been bumpy. Marketing tells us that when a product does not occupy more than 40% of the market share, it has no right to make rules of the game. Since it cannot manipulate the market, its only destiny is to domesticate to the market. This also makes localization of multinational enterprises have some utility since its birth: or to reduce costs; Or for the purpose of enjoying the preferential treatment of the host country; Or forced by catering to the national emotional situation of the host country

The market does not believe in tears, but in sincerity. When the market revolves around the baton of "customers are God", multinational companies have to put down their posture and consider what is the "God" of the host country interested in? Since coming to the East, multinational companies must first earn the appetite of "God" if they want to earn consumers' money. As a result, when the globalization expression of multinational enterprises encounters the national expression of the host country

    The reason why the US dollar can become a super international currency is that, in addition to the support of the status of the US super empire, the Federal Reserve also contributes. Although the real economy of the United States is currently in trouble and the downside risk is increasing The accuracy of the monetary policy is amazing. Looking around the world's central banks, it is unparalleled. Its shifting has repeatedly confirmed the beggar thy neighbor national egoism and extraordinary monetary skills of the Federal Reserve.
      I once made three bold predictions on the trend of the world economy after the US House of Representatives and the US House of Representatives passed the proposal to raise the debt ceiling in the article "What should China do when US debt goes ashore?" Drama and crisis besieged the world, and the US dollar returned to the rising trend. A month later, the "roller coaster" of the capital market, the visit of Vice President Biden of the United States to China, Italy's request for China to buy Italian bonds, and the dollar index station A series of events, such as 77, confirmed our conjecture at that time realistically.
      Our prediction is based on such a logic, that is, the purpose of the Federal Reserve for the supremacy of American interests and the ability of monetary policy to be flexible. During the 2008 financial crisis, the capital chain of American financial institutions was in jeopardy The timely launch of two rounds of monetary easing policies has led to the overflow of monetary liquidity in the international financial market. Central banks of various countries are waiting for trouble, but they cannot resist the tide of dollar siege. Keynesianism in the global context The two rounds of QE have no obvious hemostatic effect on the real economy, which brings more pain to emerging markets