The US dollar is plummeting and has no intention of stopping its decline. Even though President Trump of the United States rarely shouted, the strong US dollar seems to have become a joke. It is precisely because of the incompetence of the US dollar that China's renminbi has recently been forced to strengthen. It has risen above 6.30 in the short term, and it is also an unstoppable rhythm.

I will see you for a long time.

How can the dollar be like this?

We can see from the K line chart that the US dollar was relatively strong before September 11, 2001, and the US dollar index has been hovering around 120. After September 11, 2001, the US anti-terrorism in the world, and Guangfa US dollar bonds borrowed money to fight wars. Therefore, the US dollar has fallen all the way, falling to about 70 as a minimum, with a depreciation rate of about 40%. However, after the US Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden on May 1, 2011, the dollar bottomed out at around 73 and rose all the way up. At the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, it reached about 103, with an appreciation of about 50%, but it has been falling continuously since then, with a depreciation of 10% a year. In 2018, it simply entered a cliff like decline mode, going down 88 at a time. This situation forced Trump to clarify the speech of the Minister of Finance, stating that the strength of the US domestic economy will eventually promote the strength of the US dollar. Of course, the President of the United States said that if anyone believed it, nobody would care. To be honest, the water skin was not believed anyway.

Trump, as the president of the United States, has too many controversies. But as a businessman, oh, an undisputed winner, Trump now apparently operates the United States as a company. What is the essence of operation?

Yes!

Mercenary

Which is more valuable, ICBC or Guizhou Moutai?

The answer is yes.

ICBC, of course.

However, the current market value of ICBC is only about 2 trillion yuan, while the market value of Moutai in Guizhou is close to 1 trillion yuan. Two bottles of Moutai are equivalent to one ICBC. Do you think Moutai is expensive or ICBC is cheap?

If the current valuation of Kweichow Moutai is reasonable, then ICBC's valuation is low; If ICBC's valuation is reasonable, then perhaps the valuation of Guizhou Moutai is worth discussing. In any case, the two laws contradict each other and only one can be selected.

I believe most people will believe that the valuation of Moutai is not high, because the rise in 2017 has established the position of Maotai as a luxury product, and the performance of Moutai is obvious, not to mention the announcement of the first price rise in five years. In theory, the profits of Moutai can double. So, although the share price of Moutai has reached around 800 yuan, who knows where the end is? Many people have been fixed by the word "rising", and have dared not to think about whether Maotai will be fired too much. OK， This is actually the reason why ICBC was hyped by institutions when it entered 2018. From the perspective of those hot money, there is no financial stock in the market that is more suitable than the cost performance ratio of ICBC. In terms of growth, ICBC is not as good as Ping An, but Ping An has doubled; In terms of low stock price, ICBC is higher than Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, but ICBC has great index influence, so choosing ICBC can play a role in speculation

Disk message

The Shanghai Index continued its upward trend today, closing slightly Up 0.24% , rose to 3465.20, a new two-year high, and closed at 3444.67. The GEM index rebounded from the bottom today, rising slightly by 0.72% at the close, and recovered at 1700 points, closing at 1742.03 points. The trading volume of the two cities continued to expand moderately, with a total turnover of 610 billion yuan. The industry sector was mixed, led by brokers, and theme stocks such as chip 5G performed well.

Xiaoshui Kanpan

Today's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have several characteristics:

First, discharge. The trading volume is relatively large, especially in Shanghai.

The second is to rise and fall back. We can see that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has hit a new high in the past two years, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 is relatively strong, but it also basically showed a decline in the afternoon.

Third The GEM has experienced a huge shock, The amplitude in the disc reaches 3%. It first fell by 2%, then rose by 1%, and finally fell back. At the closing, it rose by 0.7%, causing a huge shock.

As soon as the big financial market opened today, In particular, the securities sector is more exaggerated, and even the stocks that pull out the trading limit also have. In banking stocks, such as Zhangjiagang Bank, ICBC even rushed to 5.775% in the session, which seemed to be the posture and pattern of the coming bull market.

As soon as the big finance opened, it pushed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to today's high, After the surge, there is a trend of falling back. In the morning, the market rose, accompanied by PetroChina

There is no end to the story of sex. When it comes to the stock market, there is only one sigh.

On November 16, China Index Research Institute organized a forum with the theme of "How to meet new real estate opportunities after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China - China's real estate market trend outlook and investment strategy in 2018". Such a forum is held almost every weekend in Beijing. Even China Index Research Institute has held seven sessions of the forum, with representatives from financial institutions attending, Of course, there are also representatives of real estate. Note that Shuipi specifically points out that the participants, not the units, mean something, because it is the so-called 51 financial and 21 real estate developers that describe this forum as a closed door meeting, which is too ordinary to be ordinary, The Fukai Building, where the forum is held, has become a chip for unscrupulous speculation by people with ulterior motives, because Fukai Building is the office of the China Securities Regulatory Commission!

As a result, a salon forum organized by a private real estate institution has evolved into a closed meeting on the fate of real estate organized by the China Securities Regulatory Commission with 51 central financial institutions and 21 national representative real estate companies. What's more funny is that the meeting reached a market judgment that financial institutions are relatively cautious and developers are relatively optimistic, In fact, people with a little common sense know that this is just the disseminator's desire. How can the CSRC talk about real estate? The fate of financial institutions also cannot be guided by the CSRC. The CSRC works in Fukai Building, but there are many companies working in Fukai Building

It seems that cash loans have become an outlet overnight.

The craziness of the market is often accompanied by a danger, which does not come from the management's clean-up and rectification. In fact, the CBRC's sensitivity to this is earlier than our market observers. However, there is still a risk that the cash loan will be out of control, and more and more people are involved in this risk, and the amount is also increasing. To be precise, Shuipi is particularly worried, If cash loans continue to develop like this, sooner or later they may evolve into Chinese style subprime loans.

As a branch of consumer loan, cash loan is not a new thing. In the United States, it is a loan on payday, because they like to live beyond their means, cash loan has become a way of their short-term capital turnover. Similar products have been available in China since about 2013, but the scale is limited. The eruption of the market began in the second half of 2016, This time point is particularly important because it was at that time that the Chinese government began a new round of real estate regulation, and controlling the scale of mortgage loans became an inherent part of the topic. Not only are purchase and loan restrictions limited, but also the base of loan interest rate is increasing, and the scale of loans is pressing against each other.

However, policy orientation is one thing, and market reality is another.

We can look at the public data.

At present, China's real estate is not as rapidly cooling as everyone imagined, but hot behind the scenes.

In the first nine months of this year, the sales area of domestic commercial housing reached 1.16 billion square meters, with a sales volume of 9.19 trillion yuan. 2016 is the hottest year for the real estate, the same

Disk message

The Shanghai Composite Index continued its adjustment today, closing down slightly by 0.33% to close at 3341.55. The market turnover continued to shrink, with a total turnover of 468.4 billion yuan between the two cities. The industry sector suffered a general decline, and the real estate sector suffered a heavy fall, leading the decline of the two cities; The defensive sectors such as medicine and wine making showed strong performance.

Xiaoshui Kanpan

One of the more interesting features on the market today is that financial stocks A shares and H shares are opposite. H shares generally fall sharply, including securities companies. A shares just rise tenaciously, forming a completely opposite trend. In fact, to some extent, this is a kind of manipulation of the index!

Today, we not only used financial stocks to protect the market, but also finally pulled up two barrels of oil, so we kept the Shanghai Composite Index above 3340. On the whole, I think the main force of the organization is too eager to protect the disk, the action of protecting the disk is too early, the strategic intention is fully exposed, and it will be relatively passive in the future.

In fact, instead of spending so much energy and capital to protect the market, it is better to let the market empty when it should be empty and cash when it should be cashed, so as to reduce the pressure on the market in the future. If we protect the market as soon as there is another adjustment, it will make the market feel like a barrier lake.

So today, the Shenzhen index is relatively real. If it falls, it will fall. Of course, it has something to do with the heavy weight of real estate stocks in the Shenzhen market, because from the situation last weekend, the real estate regulation policies across the country are overweight.

As we have said before, the speculation of real estate stocks in Hong Kong market is unimaginable in itself, which is against the macro-control of the Chinese government

Disk message

On Thursday, in the morning trading, the two cities experienced narrow fluctuations, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rebounded; The stock index plunged in the afternoon, led by the GEM. On the board, insurance, culture, education and leisure, securities trust, banking, telecommunications and other industries showed strong performance; In terms of theme stocks, fuel cells, high transmission, lease and sale with the same rights, 5G concept, combustible ice and secondary new stocks were among the top gainers. Nonferrous metals, coal, precious metals, real estate, aerospace, wine making, environmental protection and other industries were among the top decliners. The market volume has shrunk significantly, indicating insufficient short selling power.

Xiaoshui Kanpan

Now the market is cat and dog day by day. Yesterday, the market was still the world of CSI 500, and the stage of cyclical stocks became the world of SSE 50 today.

Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) 50, especially the bank shares and insurance shares, has made great efforts to protect the market, resulting in a relatively small decline in the SSE index. However, all sectors in Shenzhen have experienced a sharp decline, with a large disparity in the proportion of rising and falling stocks. Shenzhen is basically 4:1, with four stocks falling and one rising; Shanghai became 3:1, with three companies falling and one company rising.

On the whole, there has been a comprehensive decline in the market, so why are financial stocks inexplicably protecting the market? ICBC, in particular, rose by about 2.58% today and remained strong throughout the day.

I think the main answer is the sentence, "The best defense is attack". If you don't protect the plate or take the initiative to protect the plate at this position, the index may plummet to some important key positions.

Of course, even with such protection, the market situation is still difficult from the performance in the afternoon

Disk message

The Shanghai Composite Index continued its adjustment trend today, closing down slightly by 0.18% to close at 3356.84, falling below its 20 day moving average. A total of 523.7 billion yuan was traded in the two cities. Most of the industry sectors ended lower, led by the brokerage sector. The real estate sector bucked the market and the banks supported the market. However, their strength was limited. The index fell again after rising, and recovered slightly after a wave of diving before the closing.

Xiaoshui Kanpan

Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was able to pull up. Banking stocks, especially ICBC, contributed a lot. In the afternoon, ICBC fell 1.35% from its lowest point, achieving a 1% increase, leading to a decrease in the decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

The real estate sector has become the only bright spot in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today. Some of these stocks also went up and down, and Vanke also played a role as a benchmark.

Why will the real estate sector rise? Because we also said in the past that when the round is too high, people may use real estate. Because this is the practice of a round of market cycle. It is a logic in the past that people will consume after they earn money. The demand for real estate will rise, and the performance of listed real estate companies will improve. This logic is in the middle of this round of market. You can't say it is useless, but I don't think it can be fully established.

Recently, the real estate sector, such as Vanke, why can it be repeatedly staged speculation? I'm afraid it is still related to the market situation of the mainland real estate sector in Hong Kong stocks, because this year the overall Hong Kong stock real estate sector has increased by more than 50%, and several leading stocks have even increased by more than three times, all of which are concentrated in Evergrande and Rongchuang.

Disk message

The stock indexes of the two cities opened regularly today. After a slight dip, there was a wave of recovery. At 10:30, they saw the all-day high and then slowly fell back to the noon closing; In the afternoon, the stock index fell and recovered after 14:14; Hot spots on the panel: chip, fuel cell, new energy vehicle, satellite navigation, OLED concept, graphene, sapphire, green lighting, semiconductor, wine making, securities companies and other sectors have strong performance; In general, today's market presents a narrow range of consolidation.

Xiaoshui Kanpan

Surprisingly, it is appropriate to use this sentence to describe today's market.

The reason why we said it was unexpected is that we didn't expect the market to show such a strong trend today. The reason why we said it is reasonable is that the market trend often goes against everyone's judgment, which can also explain why the market is relatively strong today.

Because from the beginning of the trading, securities companies have taken the lead. So why did securities companies set off a wave of upsurge? It should be said that there is a great relationship between the two news items on the weekend. On the one hand, the stock index futures were tied up for the second time during the market rescue. At that time, it was seen as a measure to rescue the market. Theoretically, the deregulation of stock index futures is a negative for the market, but it depends on who.

The deregulation of stock index futures is bad for the whole market, but not necessarily bad for brokers. Why? Because this means that securities companies can increase hedging efforts. After the hedging efforts are strengthened, they may be more daring to increase the strength of spot positions, so to a certain extent, securities companies

No tears without a coffin.

The heart will never die until you reach the Yellow River.

Bitcoin has now become the synonym of virtual currency, and the currency war around bitcoin is entering a white hot stage.

It is hard to imagine that investors involved in this war are so crazy. After the People's Bank of China and seven national ministries and commissions called for the suspension of ICO, Bitcoin once experienced a relatively large decline. Bitcoin, which once reached about 30000 yuan, once fell back to about 25000 yuan, but then quickly rebounded. The price returned to about 29000 yuan before the call for the suspension, until the latest rumors were almost settled, that is, the country would completely stop bitcoin trading at the end of September, The reason why it is called almost is that so far, we have not seen any official documents, and word of mouth is also passed on in the market. However, from the perspective of trend, if this step is not taken, the speculative boom in Bitcoin will not slow down, but may add fuel to the flames, because everything has advantages and disadvantages. To some extent, stopping ICO is also a social popularization of ICO. However, China's national condition is that once Chinese aunts enter the arena, the psychology of lawlessness and herd effect will be amplified, There is an unexpected trend for regulators. From this point of view, to eliminate the root causes and cancel the Bitcoin transaction is to take drastic measures.

Where will Bitcoin fall?

hear nothing of.

We only know that most of the participants in the online bookkeeping game, which is claimed to be invented by Japanese, or literally invented by Nakamoto Cong, are in China, accounting for up to 70% in digital terms, while mining is almost