When China Telecom was listed, the stock price trend attracted great attention from investors. Although it might become a new PetroChina viewpoint, it also had the element of grandstanding, but the high issue price still brought great hidden worries to the stock price break. CICC bought 6.255 billion yuan in the green shoe mechanism, and the major shareholders increased their holdings by 4 billion yuan, which could not stop the coming of China Telecom's break step.
In addition to short-term investor sentiment, determining a company's stock trend is the stock valuation of listed companies. The valuation level depends on the company's fundamentals, that is, the future growth space. China Telecom has passed the high-speed growth period and entered the mature period. It cannot be valued as a growing company, but should be valued as a mature company.
China Telecom The issue price of A-share was 4.53 yuan/share, a penny higher than the net asset of 4.52 yuan. The number of issued shares was 10.396 billion shares, accounting for 11.38% of the total share capital after the issue (before the exercise of the over allotment option), Before the exercise of the over allotment option, it is estimated that the total amount of funds raised will be 47.094 billion yuan. China Telecom is a central enterprise, and the pricing of the central enterprise is not lower than the net assets in principle, so the IPO price is one cent higher than the net assets. Is the price high? Look at the price of Hong Kong shares, At the beginning of the year, the share price of China Telecom reached HK $1.7, and then rose sharply all the way to about HK $3. The rise of the share price does not exclude the positive stimulus of China Telecom's return to A-share market. China Telecom's A-share IPO At this time, The share price of China Telecom is 2.92 Hong Kong dollars, which is 2.43 yuan based on the exchange rate of 0.8333 yuan at that time. With the issue price of 4.53 yuan as the benchmark, the AH premium rate reached 86.4%. Although the AH share premium exists objectively, it is mainly due to the high premium of small and medium-sized stocks. The high premium of large cap stocks is rare, even if there is a premium premium rate, it is not high. I personally think the premium rate of 86.4% is not low. The high premium of China Telecom is either too pessimistic for Hong Kong investors or too optimistic for A-share investors? Let the market trend judge who is right and who is wrong.
From 2018 to 2020, the operating revenue of China Telecom reached 374.93 billion yuan, 372.20 billion yuan and 389.94 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 20.43 billion yuan, 20.52 billion yuan and 20.86 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of the net profit attributable to the parent company, the annual growth rate in the past three years was less than 2%. Such growth rate is very low, and the company lacks big imagination space, It is a little less growth than the banking sector with very low valuation. In the first half of 2021, China Telecom realized an operating income of 219.2 billion yuan, up 13.1% year on year, The net profit was 17.7 billion yuan, an increase of 27.2% year on year. In the 21st year, there was a high recovery growth. The focus of the question is how high growth sustainability is based on the data of the last three years? The market is difficult to determine.
As a super large cap stock, it is not suitable for hot money speculation. Therefore, China Telecom is only on the first day of listing. Hot money, by means of sneak attacks, instantly drives up the share price and attracts investors to follow suit. The Dragon and Tiger List shows that there is no institutional capital involved, and the increase is not large, and there is no limit board, China Telecom's A-share price rose 35% and finally closed at 6.11 yuan per share, followed by two consecutive one-word limit falls on September 24 China Telecom A shares opened slightly lower in the morning of the day, and soon fell below the IPO price of 4.53 yuan/share, and finally closed at 4.44 yuan, with a break rate of about 2%.
China Telecom has not broken its hair for a long time, fluctuating between 4.53 yuan and 4.54 yuan, because China Telecom has a green shoe mechanism, and CICC bought it at the issue price of 4.53 yuan 6.255 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the purchase price of the lead underwriter is all 4.53 yuan, not higher than 4.53 yuan. It is a passive purchase rather than an active purchase. The purchase volume is very large, up to more than 1 billion shares. It seems that the selling pressure is not light, and this trend is very weak. For the depressed stock price, China Telecom's major shareholders are also a little anxious, and it is difficult to calm down, Holding shareholder China Telecom On the evening of September 21, the Group announced a plan to increase its shareholding by 4 billion yuan, hoping to boost its share price. China Telecom Group said that this was based on its firm confidence in the future development prospects of China Telecom and its commitment to the Corporate investment The value is highly recognized, but it can not stop China Telecom's share price from breaking.
CICC's 6.255 billion yuan centralized purchase of protection cannot prevent the stock price from breaking, which actually implies that China Telecom Group's 4 billion yuan is also difficult to prevent the stock price from breaking. The reason is that the market is no longer optimistic about the short-term trend of future stock prices, and the selling pressure is relatively large. At present, the hot spots in the market rotate among cyclical stocks of coal, nonferrous metals, and phosphorus resources, resource stocks fall, and funds shift to large consumption, In addition, new energy, software information, chip semiconductor, etc. are repeatedly active, which means that they have not entered into communication stocks. China Telecom is not a short-term hot spot in the market. It is difficult for investors to obtain price differentials when they hold China Telecom. Few investors in China are prepared to rely on dividend yield to obtain returns when they hold stocks. Even if they want to obtain returns through dividend yield, the dividend yield of banks is higher, It is not surprising that funds have flowed out of China Telecom.
The future trend of China Telecom is determined by the growth of the company's revenue and profits, rather than the increase of the company's major shareholders. If the growth of China Telecom's performance exceeds expectations, investors will naturally be optimistic about the future stock price performance, and will also choose to buy. The stock price will naturally rise. It is not the best way to rely on the increase of holdings to protect stocks.
