Recently, Savills, the world's leading real estate service provider, released the 2017 edition of "China's 20 Retail Cities" report, tracking and studying 20 major retail cities in mainland China, using economic indicators and retail index A total of 16 groups of data were analyzed.
The 20 major first and second tier cities include Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, etc. The performance of each city is different. In terms of the retailer index, Shanghai and Beijing still maintain a huge leading edge, especially Shanghai ranking first.
Source: Savills Research Department
Trend 1: Transforming market
Retail and consumption are increasingly important to China's economic growth. The proportion of retail sales of social consumer goods in GDP has reached the bottom since 2007 By the end of 2015, it had risen 9.6 percentage points to 44.5%. The market performance is that consumers like to change a lot, retailers have different strategies, and competition between cities intensifies.
Since 2015, with the rapid rise of real estate prices in major cities and the rise of local government debt, ordinary consumers have tended to spend more carefully. In addition to the rapid development of e-commerce, the reform of mobile payment methods and the prevalence of cross-border purchases, consumers tend to be internationalized Ye is sensitive to the price difference between domestic and foreign products, so some physical stores continue to be under pressure.
The expansion speed of different types of international brands can reflect the change of consumption mode. By observing 6 categories and 50 international brands (40 are clothing) The change of stores in 20 major cities shows that the public clothing brand with the smallest price difference between inside and outside has the best expansion performance. Non apparel brands such as cinemas and entertainment As Leji Catering is more suitable for daily consumption and has a friendly attitude to people, it also has a good growth. However, high-end clothing and jewelry showed a trend of reduction and adjustment due to tax And pricing. The domestic price of this category is usually 20% to 50% higher than the overseas price.
From the regional perspective, the northern region has few highlights in recent years, and is weak in terms of overall economic growth and store expansion. The central core cities are rising, and the economic vitality and retailers' willingness to enter are relatively ideal. For example, Changsha has risen in both index rankings, which deserves attention.
Trend II. Online and offline balanced operation
With the demand for consumption upgrading, the retail market has a good prospect. However, the continuous evolution of retail carrier and spatial form has prompted the traditional entity retail to constantly explore and adapt to the new environment. Whether as a sales channel or a promotion position, online market has almost become a field that all kinds of businesses must explore.
and Compared with the laying of online stores from scratch, Offline physical stores focus on upgrading and innovation. We expect that brand stores in the future will emphasize "hierarchy" more to avoid stereotyped experience and provide fine differences for different customer groups and regions Differentiate goods and services, and the super flagship store that provides the most comprehensive product series and international standard design, service and experience will still be highly valued. For large retail stores, the expansion has stopped slightly For mature international brands, the main expansion target has sunk to third and fourth tier cities, and stores in core cities are focusing on consolidation.
As the once dominant form of China's retail market, department stores have been restricted by aging facilities, outdated business philosophy and insufficient supply since they were operated for 20 to 30 years New ideas are less attractive to young consumers than before. From 2015 to 2016, we focused on Among 20 cities, 17 cities have closed department stores.
Nevertheless, the brand resources, consumer loyalty and even feelings accumulated by department stores over years of operation, In the current market environment dominated by the brand, it is actually precious. The key is whether the operator can adapt to the new market environment and consumer demand as soon as possible.
Trend 3. The potential of the mass and mid market is still optimistic
Compared with the uncertain market prospect, the stores of high-end clothing and jewelry brands have shrunk, and the public and middle end brands continue to expand well. By the middle of 2016, the number of stores had increased by 17.9% and 5.2% respectively compared with a year ago.
Many international brands are still optimistic about the potential of this category in the Chinese market. The income of ordinary residents continues to grow, compared with their focus on luxury consumption The mass brands, sports brands and some lifestyle stores with moderate prices and small price difference at home and abroad are more attractive.
The overall number of shops of middle and high-end brands in first tier and second tier cities has also increased. The report jointly released by Alibaba and Boston Consulting predicts that by 2020, China will have One hundred million families have reached the standard of upper middle class and wealthy families (the disposable monthly income of families exceeds 12500 yuan). The middle class is probably the most difficult customer to please Household groups, while having high requirements for quality, often attach great importance to cost performance, and brands need to go all out.
Source: Savills Research Department
Trend 4. Innovation and differential design of commercial space
With the arrival of the peak era of commercial supply, there are many new and under construction shopping malls. In addition to the increasingly obvious difference in project performance caused by fierce competition, it may even be related to the evolution or even decline of a business district.
In order to attract and maintain the passenger flow, the owner actively explores the differentiation strategy to create characteristic projects. Many developers have realized the necessity of physical retail evolution, so they have designed entertainment elements in new projects. From the perspective of brand, the development of entertainment retail can be seen as the process of improving Chinese consumers' taste An important milestone. Consumers are no longer just shopping in stores, but yearn for a comprehensive retail consumption experience. Retail brands have developed entertainment product lines to meet the changes in consumer demand. For example, the introduction of small entertainment facilities for children, adolescents and family consumers.
In recent years, the proportion of clothing tenants with the highest proportion of traditional shopping malls has been shrinking, while the proportion of catering and leisure and entertainment tenants has increased most significantly. We purchase from tenants of major shopping centers in Shanghai Through continuous follow-up observation, it was found that in 2016, the area of leisure and entertainment tenants increased by 8%, catering increased by 3%, while clothing tenants The area decreased by 5%.
Network economy and new technology help to some extent This change. Shops with experience and daily leisure as their main functions can gain more attention through online promotion, so as to drive the turnover of stores. Network promotion has made the market more Multiple small sports and entertainment spaces, focusing on personalization and diversity, such as fitness studio, dance classroom, manual classroom, etc In addition to the standardized brand, there are more choices, which also enable the industry to constantly tap the potential.
Trend 5. Sports style, offline stores and new offices
The fitness revolution led by the middle class in China has created favorable conditions for the spread of sports and leisure in the domestic market. More and more urban residents are engaged in high-income white-collar work, so they can spend more leisure time on decompression, and their health awareness is constantly raised Litres. Increasingly concerned about the dynamic lifestyle, increasing income and increasing consumption mentality Strong, jointly stimulating the huge demand for health and fitness products, especially the millennials. Young professionals are tired of the traditional style and begin to pursue comfort and "no repair" The "Bian" dress wore yoga pants, sweaters, sneakers and other fitness equipment out of the gym.
The development of O2O business model in physical stores is becoming increasingly common in China. O2O is basically a way to combine online shopping with physical The business strategy of integrating consumption into one. Retailers can establish online contacts with consumers and attract them offline through popular marketing methods such as electronic coupons and mobile payments Store consumption. The combination of e-commerce platforms and physical stores can bring consumers a new shopping experience and build brand multi-channel services.
The new trend of the office building market is gradually changing the pattern of the retail industry, such as the joint office center in the shopping mall recently. The original purpose of joint office space is freedom Professionals and entrepreneurs provide cheaper and more flexible office options than traditional office buildings. Now they begin to work, collaborate and socialize with a new generation of professionals Site evolution. The "shopping mall+joint office" model is of great benefit to tenants. In the context of the rapid evolution of the retail industry, the joint office business that can bring new passenger flow and business lines may soon become the "new normal" of retail projects.
