Is the adjustment finished? Tell me my opinion
Today, the market opened 11 points lower, and the index fluctuated repeatedly. The highest touch was 2849 points, the lowest touch was 2760 points, and the lowest touch was 2845 points. It rose 12 points, or 0.43%. Today's transactions were significantly enlarged, and individual stocks fell more or rose less.
Today, the market fluctuated repeatedly, and there were large outflows of super funds and total funds.
On the technical plane, the MARD green column of Nikolai enlarges, the KDJ opening shrinks, the golden fork appears, and the RSI opening shrinks. The perimeter MACD green column is enlarged, the KDJ opening shrinks, and the RSI opening is enlarged. The three indicators of daily and weekly K lines are relatively low. The weekly line shall be a small negative line with a long lower shadow line, which shall be collected below all weekly averages.
In my annual review, I said, "If the market does not rise after the festival, even if it does not fall, it will soon return to the lower part of the trend line. However, one thing is reassuring, even if the downward innovation is low, the range is also limited. Compared with the space of the market once it unfolds, downward is obviously nothing to fear.". In terms of specific points, last year's annual review opinion remains unchanged, that is, 2850 up and down, 2700 points at the limit, close to the 0.8 times of rising waves from 2440 to 3731. But the probability of getting here is very small, even if it is less than 10%, so there is nothing to fear. ".
Today, the market continued to fall in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and ended in red in the late afternoon. Today's transaction was significantly enlarged, and there was a large outflow of funds.
After the New Year, the market fell below the low of 2882 at the end of last year and the low of 2863 in 2022. After building a small platform, it continued to decline, and today it fell to 2760. There was a rebound in the afternoon, but we can't say that the adjustment is over yet. The short-term market may also be subject to repeated shocks. Many moving averages and trend lines are under heavy pressure. If the deal is not amplified, the market will have no momentum to break through the resistance.
In the annual review, I once pointed out that for the market in 2024, look at the low point first. Since the long-term upward trend line formed by the connection between 998 and 2440 was broken down in 2023, and the two waves down from 3731 only fell 0.67, then there may be a new low in the first half of 2024. The market soon confirmed this judgment after the year. At the same time, I also judged in the annual review that the extreme low point was 2700, close to the 0.8 times of the rising wave from 2440 to 3731.
Today, the lowest point of the market is 2760. Will the market still go to 2700 after the rebound? Let's first look at the position of 2760. From 2440 to 3731, it rose by 1291 points, while from 3731 to 2760, it fell by 971 points, or 75.2%. That is to say, it has greatly exceeded the 0.618 drop of wave theory 2, but there is still room for the same sharp drop ratio that has exceeded 0.8 several times in history. Although the market has rebounded today, it is not enough to say that it is stabilizing. It is also necessary to observe whether the future market can not hit a new low, and gradually rise. Finally, it will continue to scale up to more than 500 billion yuan unilaterally in Shanghai, and then it can be said that the adjustment is likely to end.
However, I also said in the annual review that the probability of reaching 2700 is extremely low, even if it reaches 2700, it will be less than 10%, so there is nothing to fear. At that time, the annual closing index was 2974 points, but now it has dropped to 2760, only 1.5 percentage points away from 2700. How much space can there be even if the innovation is low? What are you afraid of?
Why do you look at 2700 at a low point? And say the limit? This is not out of thin air. This is because the platform in front of the 2440 low point is around 2700, and at the same time, it has also reached a decline position close to 0.8. Only a few extreme overshoots triggered the adjustment of the big market, and the decline was more than 0.8.
Today, it can basically be said that it will rebound from the bottom. Even if there is a correction and a new low, it can gradually build positions on the way down. I didn't want to do it at all, so I kept doing reverse repo to earn a small sum of 23% interest and keep it steady. This market can't do it. It just broke 2863 two days ago. There are some opportunities to see the tourist attractions. At the same time, there are also opportunities for brokers to hit the bottom. The index has limited falling space. I couldn't resist buying some. At one time, there were tens of thousands of profits, but they didn't come out just to see if there were still opportunities. They all returned this morning, but this morning they also increased a lot.
Operating tips
In operation, the warehouse can be built gradually in repeated shocks. I always believe that position control cannot be absolute, and it is irrational to have a full short position. No matter the rise or fall, it is not hard. The position you can easily deal with is your most reasonable position. Of course, except for those who are also suffering from ups and downs, such people should not come to the stock market.
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I only write some personal views on the market, and will not have so-called cooperation in operation with any institution or individual, nor will I take the initiative to contact strangers to discuss stock related matters. Anyone who takes the initiative to contact you in my name to talk about stocks is fake, so don't be fooled.
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