There should be a certain amount of short-term shocks going up repeatedly
Before talking about the market, let's talk about the reverse repurchase of government bonds. Why should we talk about this topic? The main reason is that the so-called free learning reverse repo ads on some short video platforms are too absurd. Let me talk about it here.
The advertisements of this school and that school, or even the institutions of American listed companies, are all free of charge for nine days of study. Nine months later, you will cry and thank yourself. What appears in the advertisement is the picture of crying or laughing and hugging to celebrate. What's even more outrageous is that the entire page is worth 29 yuan per day, 58 yuan per two days, and 87 yuan per three days, and so on.
Fools also know that it is possible for a reverse repo with no risk, 29 yuan * 365 days, and an annual interest rate of more than 100%? But they still want to advertise in this way, so I have to wonder what he wants to do after fooling people in for free? Aren't we going to do some other tricks to kill pigs? I don't understand why such obvious false and illegal advertisements can run rampant. Nobody cares.
I don't know whether you know about the reverse repurchase of government bonds. Let me briefly introduce that the reverse repurchase can be operated on the securities account, and the trading time is half an hour longer than the securities trading, that is, the market closes at 3:30 p.m. 1000 yuan can be traded, and 100000 yuan will be charged with a service fee of 1 yuan. Reverse repo means that institutions need to borrow money from investors by using government bonds as collateral. As the national debt is used as collateral, it is basically risk-free. It is possible to lose money unless the interest rate is lower than the service charge, but this is almost impossible. There are 9 reverse repurchase varieties in Shenzhen and Shanghai respectively, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14, 28, 91 and 182 days.
The interest rate of government bond reverse repurchase is almost the same as that of Yu'e Bao and change all the time, and the annual rate is more than 2%. Only at the end of the quarter, the end of half a year and the end of the year are higher, and at the end of the month are also slightly higher, but not much higher. Three or four percent is good. The peak at the end of the quarter is at seven or eight, and occasionally more than ten, and the highest peak is at ten in the last four years, on September 1, 21 in Shanghai. In addition, it was pulled up in an instant, and then fell down again. In fact, it was not normal. No. 1 was originally low. The interest rate fluctuates every day. Even if you are a master of price fixing and keep watching, it is hard to achieve three points of interest rate in a year. Therefore, the reverse repurchase ads of 10000 yuan a day, 28 yuan and 29 yuan in these short video platforms are totally false advertisements.
However, the reverse repo is operated in the securities account. One advantage is that the money in the general account will not be full. You can do the reverse repo when you don't plan to buy or sell stocks. The money will come back the next day and you can watch the offer to select stocks. If there is surplus money before the closing, reverse repurchase will be carried out to maximize the benefits. Remember to choose to sell when operating. In fact, it means selling securities from securities companies and lending them to institutions. The next day, Ben and Li will come back, and they can buy stocks, but the cash withdrawal should be another day.
Well, let's talk about the recent market. I once analyzed it in the article on August 1: "From the current market, the double bottom breaks the trend line upward in shape, and consolidates after breaking all the moving averages. It is basically certain that there will be no new low, and a new upswing wave has been formed. That is to say, it should be among the three waves and three waves since the rise of 2863. Theoretically, after five waves, it will reach a new high of 3731. ".
However, after August 1, the firm market went out of the trend of small and repeated corrections. Although it was also expected by the above article, it was still weak. In the short term, it is difficult to go up if the deal is not released in the repeated shocks.
To be honest, the judgment on August 1 is obviously a little radical compared with the previous analysis, which is mainly due to the changes in the fundamentals. The central government has set the tone to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence. After setting the tone, I believe that the specific stimulus policy will follow up, so even if the overall market retreats after continuous rises, it should not hit a new low. Therefore, the article also puts forward: "When the long-term trend is clear, the short-term strategy is simple. Those with light positions look for opportunities to increase their positions when the market pulls back. Do less short-term, and hold shares until they rise. The current market has just broken through, and needs consolidation. If there is a pullback, it is also normal.".
Although the current shock callback has fallen below the 5, 10 antenna and half year line, I still think the upward trend should not change. The previous article also emphasized that "although the stock market has its own operating rules, it is also greatly affected by the policy. If there is a follow-up of substantial benefits to the stock market, such as reducing stamp duty, T+0, etc. to stimulate the market, a stronger main rise may occur.". After setting the tone, there will be specific policies to follow up, which should be beyond doubt. As for the strength, it is hard to guess.
Don't be restless in the short term, look for opportunities in the light warehouse, look more at the heavy warehouse and move less, and wait. Observe the trading volume and pay more attention to the message side.
Solemnly declare that:
I only write some personal views on the market, and will not have so-called cooperation in operation with any institution or individual, nor will I take the initiative to contact strangers to discuss stock related matters. Anyone who takes the initiative to contact you in my name to talk about stocks is fake, so don't be fooled.
Reproducing this blog article must be approved by me and signed with my name, otherwise it is an infringement. Once found, I will expose your behavior in the log and investigate its legal responsibility.
