Repeated short-term shocks or rebounds (review and weekly review)
Disk surface analysis
On Friday, the market opened 7 points lower, and the index rose in shock. The highest touch was 3260 points, and the lowest touch was 3197 points, closing at 3251 points, up 36 points, or 1.12%. Trading volume shrank significantly, and individual stocks rose more than fell.
On the technical side, the market opened significantly higher today, and then rose and fell back, with a closing gain of 1.40%, and the index recovered five antennas. Today's transactions were amplified, and there was also a small amount of capital inflow. The daily MACD green column contracted, KDJ opening contracted, Jincha appeared, RSI opening contracted, and Jincha was about to appear. The perimeter MACD is magnified in green column, KDJ is wound with three wires, and RSI opening is magnified. The perimeter shall be closed with a middle shade line with a long shadow line, the index shall be closed above the 120 perimeter line, and the opening shall be enlarged after the 20 and 30 perimeter lines are dead forked. The market may suffer from short-term fluctuations. It is still necessary to observe whether the adjustment is over. ".
The market fluctuated and rose on Friday, with a lot of super funds flowing in and a small amount of total funds flowing out.
Last week's weekly review analysis "On the technical side, the market broke down this week, cut sharply, and closed the big negative line. This week, the volume of transactions increased significantly, and capital outflows increased significantly. On Friday, the daily line MACD green column contracted, and KDJ and RSI began to shrink. The perimeter MACD green column is enlarged, and the KDJ opening shrinks, that is, the golden fork and RSI opening are enlarged. The weekly line is closed with a big negative line with a long shadow line, and the index falls below the 5 weekly line. The market is slightly stable, and the short-term trend should not be a new low, but a trend of repeated shocks or rebounds. ".
This week, the market rose three times and fell two times. The K line chart also showed three positive and two negative. The market fell 58 points, or 1.77%, in a week. The weekly line closed a small negative line with a long shadow line, and the index closed below the 120 week line.
From the perspective of daily and weekly patterns, moving averages and technical indicators, the market rebounded after a sharp fall. Next week should be a volatile trend, or rebound.
Medium term trends
The market fell sharply in the first two days of this week, rebounded sharply after continuing to fall on Wednesday, and continued to rise in shock on Thursday and Friday.
On the technical side, the overall market was first depressed and then rose this week. After a sharp fall, it rebounded quickly, and the index recovered 10 antennas. There was a slight increase in the volume of transactions this week, and the outflow of funds decreased significantly. On Friday, the green column of daily line MACD shrinks, and the opening of KDJ and RSI is enlarged after the golden fork. The perimeter MACD is magnified in green column, KDJ is wound with three wires, and RSI opening is magnified. A small negative line with a long shadow line shall be closed around the perimeter, and the index shall be closed below the 120 perimeter. After the market continues to fall, there will be a rebound. In the short term, there will be repeated shocks or a rebound trend.
The review on Thursday pointed out that it is really hard to say whether the adjustment is over. Since the level of this round of adjustment is judged to be the adjustment of the first level, the normal target point will fall back to 0.618 position 2934 points, 90 points from yesterday's lowest point. Most of the large-scale two wave adjustments will exceed 0.618 or even 0.7 times. From this point of view, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over. The market will also be affected by the policy side, the news side and the external market. The current low has far exceeded the strong adjustment by 0.5 times 3086, so it is not impossible to end the adjustment if there is news stimulus. If we talk about the probability, we can only say that we can't take it lightly. After the rebound, the probability of continuing to adjust is slightly higher. In the short term, the rebound resistance is not small, or the main shock is repeated.
The lowest price of the market fell to 3023 points this week, and closed at 3251 points on Friday, rebounding 228 points. Will the future market be a new upsurge, or will it continue to decline after repeated shocks and hit a new low? At present, it can't be determined. It has been analyzed before that the low point is still far from the 0.618 times decline of the conventional target of the two waves, but the difference is not too far, so it is not sure whether the adjustment wave ends or whether the new rising wave begins. In the short term, there is a greater probability that there will be a rebound in the next week's repeated shocks.
Operating tips
Properly control the position in operation. In case of light positions, it is advisable to add positions on the low side during repeated shocks. I always believe that position control cannot be absolute, and it is irrational to have a full short position. No matter the rise or fall, it is not hard. The position you can easily deal with is your most reasonable position. Of course, except for those who are also suffering from ups and downs, such people should not come to the stock market.
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