[Pre disk pre judgment verification] First, let's review my pre judgment, which is mainly based on technology.
I pointed out on Tuesday that there are two hidden dangers that need to be solved when the market is high before the impact: one is volume price deviation, and the other is MACD top deviation. From the perspective of trading volume, the market continued to rebound today, but the trading volume could not keep up with it, and it has shrunk, which is a deviation between quantity and price. When the index is high (3310 points) before the impact in the future, the deviation between quantity and price will not go far.
Judging from the MACD indicators, the CSI 2000 index has now triggered three levels of top deviations of 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 60 minutes. Tomorrow, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will also form a 15 minute top deviation, It indicates that the probability of adjustment is increasing 。 In case of adjustment, the adjustment pressure of the SSE 2000 index is greater than that of the main board. Because the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is only the top deviation of the 15 minute level, while the Guozheng 2000 has triggered the top deviation of three levels.
Yesterday, the market hit 3310 points again without success, the highest was 3308 points. As a result, it triggered a late dive, and the CSI 2000 index fell the most, down 2.27%. Some people still said it was a bull market pullback. Yesterday, I pointed out again that today, there are more than 4500 stocks falling, and the annual line is still going down. How can it be a bull market? This will not happen in a bull market. Even if the bull market is bad, the main force will take the bad as good. Only in a bear market, a high point is an opportunity for shipment.
Therefore, GEM may have to take a downward channel. The reason for diving is unknown and not guessed. If there is any news that triggered the late dive, it is also an external cause. In my opinion, the real reason for the plunge is that the stock market itself is very weak. A few days ago, I was reminded that there are two hidden dangers (quantitative deviation and MACD deviation).
[Today's trend] On February 17 (Friday), the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.77%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 1.61%, and the GEM Index had fallen 2.51%. The total turnover of the two markets was 914.1 billion yuan, 112.8 billion yuan less than the 1026.9 billion yuan of the previous trading day. The volume of energy decreased by 11%.
In terms of sectors, New Crown Pharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, coal and other sectors were among the top gainers, while state-owned cloud, credit innovation, domestic software, data elements and other sectors were among the top losers. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 2700 stocks in the two markets fell.
【 Funds 】 Yesterday, the volume dropped sharply, today, the volume decreased slightly, and the decline slowed down.
Wind data shows that northbound funds bought 2.029 billion yuan a day, and at one point in the afternoon, they bought more than 5.6 billion yuan; This week's accumulative additional position is 8.2 billion yuan.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 50.9 billion yuan, of which 18.2 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market and 32.7 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market. Different from the North Capital, the main force of institutions and hot money is still flowing out.
[Aftermarket view] Yesterday's sharp decline, I draw two conclusions: first, the GEM is obviously on the downward path, and second, the market may be doing double ends. Today, the GEM continued to decline 2.51%, ranking first among all indexes. Look at the following figure (it must be combined with the following trading volume):
According to this trend, the GEM is expected to test the low point in December last year, but the SSE 2000 will soon stabilize next week. Therefore, after the sharp fall, the major indexes will diverge. After the slump, it will take time for market sentiment to repair.
The main board is already doing double ends, because today it has broken the neck line 3225 points. In theory, it must turn down a box (3310-3225=85 points) and call back the target point (3225-85=3140 points). Today's annual line is At 3200, it is still going down. Next week, there will be a rebound at the annual line, and then it will fall again. The specific weekend will be described in detail.
[Market opportunity] Today's market performance of individual stocks is uneven, maintaining structural opportunities. Pharmaceutical stocks rose against the trend, led by new crown drugs; Consumer stocks were active in the morning, led by household appliances and food sectors; The military industrial unit changed in the afternoon. On the whole, defensive stocks performed relatively well. However, the concept stocks of ICT adjusted collectively, and the concept stocks of ChatGPT weakened in shock.
According to media reports, since the Spring Festival, the market price of Moutai liquor has gone up crazily. According to the reporter, the price of Moutai has indeed risen a lot recently. Some varieties are priced at the same price every day, and the price of 12 kg packs increases even more.
In 2023, the consumption market of the Spring Festival will show a high degree of popularity and the dynamic sales of liquor will be excellent. Considering the continuous repair of business banquets in March and March and the low base last year, it is expected that the dynamic sales of liquor in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to achieve a certain growth. The short-term sector valuation has been restored to a reasonable level. After the festival and the second quarter, we will focus on the price performance of famous liquor products. On the basis of reasonable valuation, long-term stability of industry fundamentals, and short-term prosperity, any marginal rise is expected to promote the sector performance.
Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.
