[Pre market prediction verification] Last week, I repeatedly reminded that although the index has broken through the annual line, the annual line is downward, which has a traction (or attraction) effect on the index. Now the annual line is at 3208, and it still goes down at the speed of 1 point every day. There must be a time to wait for the annual line to level off, or even turn upward.
The adjustment from the peak of 3310 on the first day after the Spring Festival is still continuing, and the first two days are just an hour level rebound. From the perspective of space, today's low point 3235 is the first support level, and the largest space below is the annual line.
In terms of time, the adjustment is not over yet. If the trading volume still shrinks like this, it is difficult to break 3100 points in the short term. Next week, the market may rise first and then fall. Find the low point in February near today's lower shadow line, and wait until the line comes up on the 20th to form support.
[Today's trend] After the market opened low all day, it bottomed out and rebounded, and all three indexes fell slightly. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.3%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.59%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.96%. The total turnover of the two markets was 892.8 billion yuan, down 8.3 billion yuan from 901.1 billion yuan on the previous trading day. The volume of energy decreased by 0.9%.
In terms of sectors, dairy industry, agriculture, hotel tourism, prefabricated dishes and other sectors led the increase, while small metals, automobile, integrated die-casting, general aviation and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 2500 stocks in the two cities fell, and the number of stocks with trading limits hit a recent new low.
【 Funds 】 The trading volume of the two cities is still below one trillion yuan. Remember that I repeatedly reminded you last week that the trading volume should not shrink to below one trillion yuan. If it shrinks, it will be impossible to resolve the top deviation trend.
Wind data shows that the net sales of northbound funds throughout the day were 3.374 billion yuan, including 1.338 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock Connect and 2.037 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock Connect. This week, the accumulated net purchase of capital from the north was nearly 3 billion yuan, adding A shares for 13 consecutive weeks.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 39.2 billion yuan, of which the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market is 14.5 billion yuan, and the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market is 24.7 billion yuan. Major orders continued to flow out significantly.
Today, the main funds only flowed into the agricultural planting and telecommunications operation sectors, and flowed out of the big financial, automobile, nonferrous metals and other sectors, of which the big financial sector had a net outflow of 2.867 billion.
In terms of individual stocks, NYU Taiwei rose sharply, with a net purchase of 1.122 billion yuan as the main capital, and iFLYTEK, China Southern Network Energy, Leo Shares, etc. were among the top players in terms of net capital flow; BYD was sold more than 700 million yuan, and the net outflow of major funds such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium and Longji Green Energy ranked first.
[Future view] Today's market did not continue yesterday's sharp rise, but went rather weakly, mainly due to the influence of Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks did not know why. Today's sharp plunge, so far, the main indexes have dropped by more than 2%. In addition, the turnover continues to shrink, indicating that the market is not popular enough.
Technically, the good news is that the 20th line has come up, and this week the market was stabilized at 3225 points under the support of the 20th line; The bad news is that the annual line is still going down, pulling the market. However, the downward rate of the annual line is slowing down, less than one point a day, and it still needs time to level off.
Yesterday's positive line only stopped falling, blocking the falling space, but to rebound to a new high, it still needs trading volume. First, it needs to stand at one trillion yuan, and specific weekend will continue to be analyzed in detail.
From the perspective of trend, if the two previous lows of 2885 and 3031 are connected into a trend line, the current market trend is still running above the trend line and there is still some distance from the trend line. From the perspective of the moving average, the market is still operating above the annual line, and has been operating for nearly half a month. Although it will take some time for the annual line to turn upward, But as long as it runs above the annual line, it is a good thing. Therefore, although the short-term line is in the adjustment pattern, the midline trend is still good.
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunity consumer stocks led the rise in the direction of prefabricated dishes. Power shares changed in the afternoon, and ChatGPT related concept stocks rose and fell back, and digital watermarking was active.
Today, GEM led the decline, and the overall market opportunity and individual stock performance were weak. Technology stocks are on the high side, but securities companies still haven't risen.
On the news side, China's CPI in January was 2.1% year-on-year (2.3% expected, 1.8% previously); China's PPI in January was - 0.8% year-on-year (expected - 0.5%, previous - 0.7%).
Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.
