[Pre disk pre judgment verification] The MACD of 30 minutes and 60 minutes is inconsistent. As long as the trading volume does not shrink to below one trillion yuan, it will continue to rise after a few days of rest. If we can continue to increase the volume tomorrow and break through the 10621 trading volume on the first day after the festival, we will continue to set a new high next week. The new high is to break through 3310, because 3310 is a short-term pressure level after all, not a pressure level in February.
[Trend today] On February 3 (Friday), the market opened low all day and then fell back, rebounded in the afternoon, and the three major indexes all fell slightly. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.65%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.62%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.85%. The total turnover of the two markets was 914.7 billion yuan, 109.6 billion yuan less than the 1024.3 billion yuan of the previous trading day. On the basis of two consecutive days of amplification, the volume of energy has shrunk by 10.7% today.
In terms of sectors, ChatGPT, web3.0, data elements, China Shipbuilding and other sectors led the increase, while precious metals, dairy industry, real estate, automobile and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 2900 stocks in the two markets fell.
【 Funds 】 The trading volume of the two cities has shrunk by more than 10% today, and has returned to below trillion yuan, which belongs to the trend of shrinking volume adjustment.
Wind data shows that the late outflow of northbound funds narrowed, with a net sale of 4.246 billion yuan throughout the day, stopping the pace of adding positions for 17 consecutive days; Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect sold 4.332 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect bought 86 million yuan; This week, the accumulated net purchase of northbound funds exceeded 34 billion yuan.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 34.9 billion yuan, of which 14.9 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market and 20 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market. Major orders continued to flow out significantly.
Today, the main capital only flows into the papermaking sector, and the net outflow from the big financial, chemical, electrical machinery and other sectors, of which the big financial sector has a net outflow of 3.085 billion. In terms of individual stocks, Jianghan New Material rose sharply, with a net purchase of 734 million yuan of main funds. Annie Shares, Ronglian Technology, China Software, etc. were among the first to receive a net flow of main funds; Ping An of China was sold more than 600 million yuan, and the net outflow of major funds such as Chang'an Automobile, Zhongtian Technology and Longji Green Energy ranked first.
[Future view] I have repeatedly reminded you these days that the trading volume should not shrink to below one trillion yuan. If it shrinks, it will be impossible to resolve the top deviation trend. In other words, the index should reach a new high, and the trading volume should first break through the capacity of 1062.1 billion yuan on the first day after the festival. Yesterday, it seemed to be approaching, but today it has shrunk sharply.
Another point, I also mentioned earlier that although the index has broken through the annual line, the annual line is downward, which has a traction (or attraction) effect on the index. Today's market is actually a process of being pulled by the annual line. Now the annual line is at 3208, and it still goes down at the speed of 1 point every day. There must be a time to wait for the annual line to level off, or even turn upward.
From the perspective of the moving average, now the 5th and 10th lines have reached the top of the annual line, and the 20th line is about to bond with the annual line. It will be a real bull market until the 30th and 60th lines are all at the previous year's line.
This week is the first trading week after the Spring Festival. The adjustment from the high point of 3310 on the first day after the Spring Festival is still continuing. The first two days are just a rebound at the hourly level. So is the high point of 3310 on the first day after the festival the head? I don't think so. Now it is only an adjustment in the trend of three waves, and the time and space for this adjustment are limited. From the perspective of space, today's low point 3235 is the first support level, and the largest space below is the annual line.
In terms of time, the adjustment is not over yet. If the trading volume still shrinks like this, it is difficult to break 3100 points in the short term. Next week, the market may rise first and then fall. Find the low point in February near today's lower shadow line, and wait until the line comes up on the 20th to form support.
[Market opportunities] Today, the yellow line is at the top, and there are quite a lot of market opportunities, mainly focusing on the changes of digital economy concept stocks (especially the concept of digital village), ChatGPT concept stocks, and consumer electronics concept stocks in the afternoon. However, track stocks such as photovoltaic and wind power are in adjustment.
Recently, the hottest market is ChatGPT concept stock, which is a new chat robot model, a natural language processing tool driven by artificial intelligence technology, released by the artificial intelligence research laboratory OpenAI on November 30, 2022. It can communicate by learning and understanding human language, interact according to the chat context, chat and communicate like human, and even complete tasks such as writing emails, video scripts, copywriting, translation, code, etc.
A survey shows that by January 2023, 89% of American college students have used ChatGPT to do their homework. The hottest AI application at the moment: OpenAI launched ChatGPT Plus subscription service is $20 per month. The artificial intelligence chat robot ChatGPT has just been launched for two months, and its monthly active users are estimated to have reached 100 million. Some analysts believe that it is the fastest growing consumer application in history.
Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.
