[Pre market Pre judgment Verification] The high of 3310 on the first trading day after the festival is a short-term high. Tomorrow there will be a trend of top deviation at the 30 minute and 60 minute levels, so the rebound will not be achieved overnight, and the high of 3310 on the first day after the festival will not be broken immediately.
If we want to break 3310 points, we need to break through the 10621 trading volume on the first day after the festival, so we can't shrink tomorrow, and the shrinking will not break the top deviation trend. That is to say, we can break the top deviation trend only by continuing to increase the volume.
[Trend today] On February 2 (Thursday), the market fluctuated throughout the day, and the three major indexes rose and fell in different ways. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 0.02%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.22%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.44%. The total turnover of the two markets was 1024.3 billion yuan, up 19.7 billion yuan from 1004.6 billion yuan on the previous trading day. On the basis of yesterday's 11.6% amplification, the volume can be amplified by 2% again today.
In terms of sectors, beverage manufacturing, CRO, large fund holdings, food processing and other sectors led the increase, while education, insurance, securities, large aircraft and other minority sectors declined. The rising and falling stocks in the two markets are basically the same.
【 Funds 】 The trading volume of the two cities has exceeded trillion yuan for two consecutive days, which is a good thing and the market has become popular. It was said yesterday that trillion yuan is the normal state of the Year of the Rabbit, and the days below trillion yuan will be fewer and fewer. After all, the scale of the two cities is already huge.
Wind data shows that northbound funds bought a net 2.693 billion yuan in the whole day, 17 consecutive days, and the single day net purchase volume was the lowest since January 4.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 30.9 billion yuan, of which the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market is 11 billion yuan, and the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market is 19.9 billion yuan. The main large order finally appeared a long lost inflow.
Today, the main funds flowed into the banking, shipping, coal and other sectors, and flowed out of the big financial, securities, nonferrous metals and other sectors, of which the big financial sector had a net outflow of 5.553 billion.
In terms of individual stocks, Great Wall of China went up and down, with a net purchase of 441 million yuan as the main capital. Vision China, North Huachuang, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, etc. were among the top players in terms of net capital flow; AVIC Property Finance was sold more than 800 million yuan net, and the net outflow of major funds such as Orient Wealth, CITIC Securities and Goer Holdings ranked first.
[Future view] From the perspective of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, a cross star was closed today, and the MACD of 30 minutes and 60 minutes is the top departure. It doesn't matter. As long as the trading volume does not shrink to below one trillion yuan, it will continue to rise after a few days of rest. If we can continue to increase the volume tomorrow and break through the 10621 trading volume on the first day after the festival, we will continue to set a new high next week. The new high is to break through 3310, because 3310 is a short-term pressure level after all, not a pressure level in February.
There is a good lyric: if the heart is there, the dream is there, it's a big deal to start again! Now, the situation is that the market popularity is on the verge of a trillion yuan!
Yesterday I pointed out here that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 have all made up the gap of the last trading day before the festival. In other words, these two indexes (CSI 300 Index and SSE 50 Index) have the weakest trend recently. Reason: To fill the gap is weak, and not to fill the gap is strong. From this point of view, the SSE 2000 index is now the strongest in the market, and not a gap has been filled. Today, it continues to hit a new high, which is expected to challenge the high of 8869 last August. Similar indexes include CSI 1000. If these indexes are summed up in two words, they are "small notes", that is, they are small in scale and have good liquidity.
Judging from the actual performance of the market today, this trend continues. That is, the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index are the weakest, falling 0.35% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 2000 Index and the CSI 1000 Index are up 0.25% and 0.24%, respectively. Each rise and fall has its own distinct strength.
[Market opportunity] Today's hot market segments continued to perform in turns: chip stocks rebounded in the morning, consumer stocks strengthened in the afternoon, and food and beverage led the rise. Pharmaceutical stocks rebounded, led by CRO. Recently active ChatGPT concept, ICT and other theme stocks rose and fell. Securities companies and other financial sectors opened higher and moved lower, indicating that the bull market has not yet been seen.
The biggest news today is that the comprehensive registration system will be launched. At present, the "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" index (GEM and science and technology innovation board) is already a registration certificate. The so-called full registration system is the main board. The registration certificate of the main board is very different from that of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation", including that there is no limit on the rise and fall of new shares in the first five trading days before listing, and the temporary trading suspension system in the session is optimized, so that new shares can be included in the subject of margin trading on the first day of listing. However, there are two systems that have not been adjusted. One is that the daily rise and fall limit has remained unchanged at 10% since the sixth trading day of IPO listing; The second is to maintain the current investor appropriateness requirements of the main board unchanged.
The general feeling is that the A-share market will become larger and larger in the future, with more and more stocks, but fewer and fewer active individual stocks, so stock selection must be more and more "refined". Most zombie stocks, or "immortal stocks", will remain motionless and lose their investment and speculative value.
Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.
