[Pre market pre judgment verification] The day after tomorrow is the last trading day of the Lunar Year of the Tiger, and the approximate rate is red market closing.
[Trend today] On January 20 (Friday), the three major A-share indexes rose massively, and the Year of the Tiger ended in red. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 0.76%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 0.57%, and the GEM Index had risen 0.56%. The total turnover of the two markets was 749.1 billion yuan, an increase of 62.1 billion yuan over the 687 billion yuan of the previous trading day. The energy is amplified by 9%.
Most of the industry sectors ended higher, with precious metals, energy metals and education sectors leading the way, while the securities sector bucked the market and weakened.
【 Funds 】 On the last day before the festival, the volume of the two markets can be increased by 10%. I repeatedly pointed out earlier that before the Spring Festival, the turnover of the two cities is hard to reach the "trillion" level. A few days ago, when the level of 800 billion yuan, I suggested that it would shrink to the level of 6-700 billion yuan before the festival. However, according to today's capacity, it is estimated that the turnover will return to "trillion" soon after the holiday.
Wind data shows that the northbound capital continued to "boldly" sweep the goods in a big way, and the net purchase in the late auction was nearly 1.5 billion yuan, 9.256 billion yuan in the whole day, 13 consecutive days of net purchase, including 4.211 billion yuan in Shanghai Stock Connect and 5.046 billion yuan in Shenzhen Stock Connect. This week's accumulated warehouse reached 48.5 billion yuan, and the net purchase volume per week hit a record high, just slightly lower than the historical record of 48.8 billion yuan set in December 2021. Since January, foreign capital has accumulated a net purchase of 112.5 billion yuan.
Level-2 data shows that today, the main capital of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has a net inflow of 2.4 billion yuan, including 3.1 billion yuan of the main capital of Shanghai stock market and 700 million yuan of the main capital of Shenzhen stock market. Domestic capital and northern capital rarely flow in the same direction, which adds a festive color to the festival.
[Future view] Today is the last trading day of the Year of the Tiger, and the market closed red as predicted. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.18%, and the GEM rose 3.72%, both of which went out of the week for four consecutive days. This is related to the loose funds. The relevant departments also released some funds for the Spring Festival. The biggest factor affecting the rise and fall of A-share market is the capital.
On January 20, the People's Bank of China carried out a 7-day and 14 day reverse repurchase operation of 381 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding. On that day, 55 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, realizing a net liquidity injection of 326 billion yuan.
This week, the scale of the People's Bank of China's open market operation remained at the level of 100 billion yuan. From January 16 to January 20, the scale of reverse repo was 156 billion yuan, 506 billion yuan, 580 billion yuan, 532 billion yuan and 381 billion yuan, respectively. In addition to the excess of MLF expired on January 16, the net investment this week reached 2045 billion yuan, a record for a single week.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index ran above the annual line yesterday and today, and today still leaves a gap to show strength. My previous view has not changed, and there is still a wave of market after the Spring Festival. But as I said before, the current annual line is downward, and it will not be supported until it turns upward; In addition, today's gap also has the requirement of filling.
Therefore, the stock market was closed for 9 days during the Spring Festival, during which there was great uncertainty in the peripheral fundamentals (including US stocks), so we should be cautious. There is no need to worry about missing out after the festival. This market is growing in size and opportunities will always exist.
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunities are concentrated in resource stocks, mainly small metals and precious metals. The market is active, especially in areas with Chinese characters such as telecom operation, nonferrous metals, construction, oil and coal. Although all the indexes rose today, there were only 101 individual stocks with an increase of more than 5%, which means that today is not a hot money market, mainly because institutions (including foreign capital) are increasing.
The current market is an incremental market, not a stock market. The stock market is a seesaw market. The rise of one plate is at the cost of the fall of another plate, so it should be centralized. In the incremental market, the allocation must be decentralized, and the plates that are not in turn will not fall sharply. For example, although the brokerage sector fell today, it did not fall much, and there will be opportunities after the festival.
Institutions prefer Chinese prefixes, mainly undervalued blue chips. Recently, the market style is biased towards nonferrous metals, energy and other Chinese prefixes, making Chinese prefixes significantly active. At the end of last year, the regulator proposed to explore the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, which also helped to improve the valuation of Chinese initial stocks.
Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.
Tips: A shares will be closed from January 21 (Saturday) to January 29 (Sunday), and will be open as usual from January 30 (Monday). (North capital synchronization)
Hong Kong shares will be closed from January 21 (Saturday) to January 25 (Wednesday), and will be open as usual from January 26 (Thursday) (Friday).
Tomorrow is the Lunar New Year's Eve, and the day after tomorrow is the New Year's Day, ahead of schedule here Wish you a happy Spring Festival! good health! Happy family!
