[Pre market Pre judgment Verification] As I said a few days ago, some institutional funds have entered the pre holiday exit mode, and the capital will continue to shrink to the level of 600 billion to 700 billion yuan, but Beijing Capital is still buying in a big way, which seems to be taking advantage of China's pre holiday effect to pick up cheap chips when domestic capital flees. Therefore, the market is not down deeply, and it is dominated by the horizontal market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen below the 5-day line. The lower 10 day line, 30 day line and half year line are glued near 3140, with a certain degree of support. The GEM has not fallen below the 5-day line, which is a little better than the main board.
[Today's trend] On January 13 (Friday), the three major indexes opened high all day, rising more than 1% to nearly 3200 points, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index rose more than 1.5%. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 1.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 1.19%, and the GEM Index had risen 1.41%. The total turnover of the two markets was 702.3 billion yuan, up 20.8 billion yuan from 681.5 billion yuan on the previous trading day. On the basis of shrinking for five consecutive days, the volume of energy increased by 3% today.
Today, the turnover of Shanghai Stock Exchange is 288.1 billion yuan, and that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange is 414.2 billion yuan. The turnover of Ningde Times ranked first, with 9.14 billion yuan. Followed by Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, China Ping An and Dongfang Wealth, the turnover was 5.97 billion yuan, 4.83 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan and 4.55 billion yuan respectively.
In terms of sectors, small household appliances, beverage manufacturing, ophthalmic medicine, insurance and other sectors were among the top gainers, while state-owned cloud, industrial machine, TOPCON battery, ICT and other sectors were among the top losers. Individual stocks rose more than fell, and more than 2600 individual stocks in the two markets rose.
【 Funds 】 After shrinking for five consecutive days, the volume of the two cities has slightly increased today, which is still at the level of 6-700 billion yuan. It is normal for the main force to take early holidays near the Spring Festival holiday. I repeatedly pointed out earlier that before the Spring Festival, the turnover of the two cities is difficult to reach the level of "trillion yuan". When the level of 800 billion yuan was reached a few days ago, I suggested that it would shrink to the level of 6-700 billion yuan before the festival.
Wind data shows that the net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 13.336 billion yuan, a new high since November 2022; Net purchases for 8 consecutive trading days, including 6.305 billion yuan for Shanghai Stock Connect and 7.031 billion yuan for Shenzhen Stock Connect.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 9.5 billion yuan, of which the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market is 4.36 billion yuan, and the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market is 5.14 billion yuan. The outflow of large orders is more than 40% less than yesterday.
[Future view] At the moment when the market was in adjustment and "three consecutive negative periods" appeared, foreign investors built positions in a large scale against the trend and resisted the pressure of market adjustment. This week, Beijing Capital added nearly 44 billion yuan in total, and the net purchase amount in a single week was the third best in history since the launch of the Land Stock Connect. Since January, it has added more than 64 billion yuan in total. This figure has exceeded 70% of that of 2022 (RMB 90.019 billion).
In addition to the recent accelerated appreciation of the RMB, this phenomenon is mainly due to the strong allocation value of A-shares in the global capital market. Compared with other overseas stock indexes, the A-share market is more resilient, and the liquidity tightening outside Shanghai has limited disturbance to China's capital market, so the A-share market has strong attraction.
Foreign capital is buying in a large scale, but will domestic institutions follow? If we follow, we may launch the Spring Festival market in advance next week, but I think the probability is still small. Because the Spring Festival is approaching, some of the main forces have gone home for the Spring Festival. I still maintain my previous view that there will not be a sharp decline year ago, and some funds will follow next week, so the market will rise, but the height is also limited, and the annual line is difficult to cross. If you are on the annual line before the festival, it is not ruled out that you should make a correction after the festival. The reason is that the annual line is downward, and technically it will not be achieved overnight.
So the trend of next week is likely to be like this. At the beginning of the week (Monday), the main board first rose. Because the trading volume could not keep up, it rose and fell near the annual line (Tuesday), then fell slightly (Wednesday and Thursday), and then rose (Friday).
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunities are concentrated in financial stocks, household appliances and medical equipment stocks, but the concept stocks of digital economy have been adjusted, and some of the early high popularity stocks continue to fall sharply. As financial stocks (mainly bancassurance) lead the rise today, the earning effect of individual stocks is not obvious. Now we are mainly preparing for the market after the festival. I think there is an opportunity to attract track stocks at a low price in the last two days before the festival. There may be a trend of pulling down the main board of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation".
From the perspective of investment layout, new energy, brewing, finance and other fund heavy positions have become the focus of foreign capital's recent overweight. Take the northbound capital as an example. In the past week, the three stocks with the most northbound capital positions were Ningde Times, China Ping An and Guizhou Maotai. Among them, Ningde Times and China Ping An received a net purchase of more than 4 billion yuan from the north, and Guizhou Moutai received a net purchase of 3.9 billion yuan from the north. In addition, Wuliangye, Longji Lvneng and Dongfang Wealth received a net purchase of more than 1 billion yuan from the north.
The steady pace of economic recovery and low valuation level are important reasons for the accelerated layout of foreign institutions. From the perspective of MSCI China index, the valuation is at a low level, whether compared with its own point or with MSCI global index. We are optimistic about A-share leisure services, household appliances, food and beverage, new energy battery industry chain, computer and other industries.
