[Pre market prediction verification] With the continuous decline of trading volume, it is estimated that there will still be volatility and correction in the next few days of this week, Still need to make up The lower gap (3129-3130). If the hot spots of individual stocks tend to be dominated by hot money when adjusting, this is also a rotation.
[Trend today] On January 10 (Tuesday), the trend of the two markets was divided throughout the day. The Shanghai Index closed down slightly, ending six consecutive positive days. The GEM Index rose in the afternoon. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.21%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 0.49%, and the GEM Index had risen 1.38%. The turnover of the two markets was 747.2 billion yuan, 60 billion yuan less than the 807.2 billion yuan of the previous trading day. On the basis of shrinking for two consecutive days, Liangneng shrank again by 7.4% today.
In terms of sectors, the concept of semiconductors rose strongly, the auto industry chain stocks became active again, and the concepts of health care, media, and consumer electronics rose; Insurance, logistics, military industry, real estate, electric power, oil, steel, brewing, securities and other sectors weakened. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and 3132 stocks were green.
【 Funds 】 The volume of the two cities can shrink for three consecutive days. It is normal for the main force to take a holiday in advance when the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. I repeatedly pointed out earlier that the turnover of the two cities before the Spring Festival is difficult to reach "trillion".
Wind data shows that the northward capital has shrunk along with the overall market, with a turnover of 87.279 billion yuan throughout the day; Net purchases of 5.801 billion yuan were made again within the day, and the accumulated positions added for 5 consecutive days exceeded 34 billion yuan.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 12.15 billion yuan, of which 6.02 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market and 6.13 billion yuan is the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market. The outflow of large orders more than doubled yesterday.
[Future view] The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has the best performance in this market. Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is the first one to take a break. The GEM is following the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. Today, the GEM continues to rise with inertia, and the closing position has stood on the line for half a year. But looking at the GEM time-sharing chart, the white line and the yellow line diverge greatly. The white line is high above the GEM, indicating that the weight stocks in the GEM are still rising. Ningde Times (300750) today rose 3.7%, becoming the biggest contributor to the growth of the GEM.
The adjustment occurred as scheduled, but the adjustment was very modest. It did not fall below the 5-day line. There were only 16 individual stocks with a decline of more than 5%, which was not very destructive, and there would be no sharp decline in the next few days. The main problem now is that the trading volume has shrunk for three consecutive days, including the GEM, which has also shrunk and risen, and the volume and price are inconsistent. There are eight trading days before the New Year, will it shrink to the level of more than 500 billion yuan last December? I don't think it is possible. It is almost enough to maintain the level of 600 to 700 billion yuan. Otherwise, the land volume and price will be redefined.
The GEM continued to rebound, but there was a gap (2527-2537 points) in September last year. This is a pressure level that is difficult to overcome before the festival. The growth of GEM today is due to the rise of more than 3% in Ningde Times. Similarly, the fall of Shanghai Stock Index today is also due to the fall of more than 3% in China Ping An, a heavyweight of Shanghai Stock Index. China Ping An also rose too much in the previous period, and its position was relatively high. In the Ningde era, its position was relatively low, so it rose today.
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunities are concentrated in the automotive industry chain, mainly due to the soaring of the whole vehicle sector, the strong semiconductor sector throughout the day, and the collective activity of medical, consumer electronics, games and other sectors. However, the education sector, shipping concept stocks, big finance, real estate and other cyclical sectors are collectively weak. The index is rotating, and the plates and hot spots are also rotating, so it is important to master the rhythm.
