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The market target remains unchanged before the Spring Festival

(2023-01-05 15:30:00)
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David Ding

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[Pre market pre judgment verification] The market target after New Year's Day has not been reached, so the 60 day line will be repeatedly hit after the adjustment. In the "Ma Qian Pao" at 8:00 this morning, I pointed out that market opportunities are mainly concentrated in digital economy related sectors and real estate and industrial chain related sectors. Pharmaceutical stocks fell into adjustment. Track stocks such as photovoltaic energy storage weakened in the afternoon. However, these two aspects are still opportunities for bargain hunting.

[Today's trend] On January 5 (Thursday), the market opened high all day, and the GEM index led the day. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 1.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had risen 2.13%, and the GEM Index had risen 2.76%. The turnover of the two markets was 842.8 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1 billion yuan over the previous trading day's 783.7 billion yuan. On the basis of yesterday's contraction of 0.6%, the volume of energy has increased by 7.5% today.

In terms of sectors, beverage manufacturing, integrated die-casting, TOPCON batteries, CRO and other sectors led the increase, while retail, supply and marketing cooperatives, real estate, textiles and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks rose more than fell, and more than 2900 individual stocks in the two markets rose.

【 Funds 】 The volume of the two markets reached a new high after the festival, and the rebound has not ended.

Wind data shows that the one-sided net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 12.753 billion yuan, a new high since November 14, 2022; Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect net purchased 5.659 billion yuan, and Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchased 7.095 billion yuan.

Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 13.57 billion yuan, of which the main capital inflow of Shanghai stock market is 4.85 billion yuan, and the main capital inflow of Shenzhen stock market is 8.72 billion yuan. Today, the inflow of large orders and the inflow of capital from North China complement each other, which is very rare.

Today, the main funds flowed into securities, automobile, big finance and other sectors, and flowed out of real estate, commercial retail, food and beverage and other sectors, of which the net inflow of securities was 2.305 billion.

In terms of individual shares, Goer's shares rose by the ceiling, with the net purchase of main funds of 1.897 billion yuan. Guizhou Moutai, Dongfang Fortune, Wuliangye, etc. were among the first to receive the net flow of main funds; The net sales of cross-border channels exceeded 400 million yuan, and the net outflow of major funds such as Julun Intelligence, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Jiuqi Software ranked first.

[Future view] Today's bulls have made substantial gains, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has basically won the landmark negative line of December 19. The GEM index led the day's gains, hitting the 60 day line index as scheduled. But the sci-tech innovation 50 index, the CSI 2000 index and the CSI 1000 index have not been able to stand on the 60 day line, but they are not far away from the 60 day line. So my goal for the market after New Year's Day remains unchanged, that is, all indexes stand on the 60 day line.

Institutions began to take long positions, and hot money was converted into shares. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index pauses near 3170, and may approach 3200 before the festival. The annual line cannot be crossed temporarily. After the Spring Festival, it will break through the annual line again.

[Market opportunity] When the market is just rising, it is mainly reassuring to hold shares. If there is no rise, it will also be the turn.

Today, the yellow white time line performance was differentiated, and the weighted blue chips performed better. Market opportunities are concentrated in liquor and lithium battery track stocks. Consumer electronics concept stocks also rebounded. The digital economy concept stocks that were prompted yesterday showed differentiation, with Zhizhen Technology, COSCO Haike rising and falling. Consumer stocks are in adjustment, and there is still an opportunity for low absorption after adjustment.

The 2023 National Energy Work Conference held a few days ago stressed once again that we should make every effort to improve the energy production and supply guarantee capacity and accelerate the construction of a unified national power market system. The National Energy Administration issued the Basic Rules for the Spot Power Market (Draft for Comments) and the Measures for the Supervision of the Spot Power Market (Draft for Comments), which are the first regulatory documents for the spot power market issued at the national level. Since December, the time-sharing electricity price policy has been adjusted in many places to expand the difference between peak and valley prices. The above policies involving spot power market, time of use price mechanism and so on will have an important impact on the business model and profitability of multiple energy industry lines, such as coal power, energy storage, virtual power plants and so on. Relevant stocks: Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863), Changyuan Power (000966), Changjiang Power (600900), Longyuan Power (001289), SDIC Power (600886).

Note: The individual stocks cited in this article are only examples for analysis. The information and data are all based on the public media reports designated by the CSRC. I do not hold these stocks, nor do I recommend you to buy or sell them, but only analyze them for your reference. The stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.

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