[Pre market pre judgment verification] The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has a gap today, laying a hidden danger for the next rebound. Technically, there are reasons for "making up for every shortage" and a bearish logic. I think there will be callback pressure tomorrow (Wednesday) and Thursday. However, since the "land volume and land price" has been determined, there is little room for callback. After the callback, there is still an opportunity for low absorption. The real reversal of the trend is to stand on the 60 day line of the "entrepreneurship and innovation" index (GEM and science and technology innovation board).
[Today's trend] On December 28 (Wednesday), the market opened low all day and then made a shock adjustment. The GEM index led the decline. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.26%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.86%, and the GEM Index had fallen 0.9%. The turnover of the two markets was 650.8 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan less than the previous trading day's 668.6 billion yuan. On the basis of two consecutive days of amplification, the volume of energy has shrunk by 2.7% today.
In terms of sectors, haematometer, tourism, electricity, banking and other sectors led the increase, while education, automobile, agriculture, integrated die-casting and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 3800 stocks in the two markets fell.
【 Funds 】 Due to "masks" and festivals, it is difficult to recover the trading volume to "trillion", and the shrinking trading volume is not conducive to the rebound.
Wind data shows that northbound funds bought a net 3.918 billion yuan today, four consecutive days of net buying; Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect net purchased 3.432 billion yuan, and Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchased 486 million yuan. The return of northbound funds today, the continuous return of foreign capital expressed the recognition of the current position. [Overseas investors increase their allocation to China's stock market International institutions cast "vote of confidence" to the Chinese market] Recently, many international investment institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have been "bullish" on the Chinese stock market, and many institutions have even taken out "real gold and silver" to buy Chinese assets. (Economic Daily)
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 24.04 billion yuan, of which the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market is 6.74 billion yuan, and the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market is 17.3 billion yuan. The outflow of large orders more than doubled yesterday.
Today, the main funds flowed into the banking, oil, securities and other sectors, and flowed out of the automobile, chemical industry, non-ferrous metals and other sectors, of which the automobile sector had a net outflow of 2.576 billion.
In terms of individual stocks, solar energy rose sharply, with a net purchase of main funds of 505 million yuan, and Capital Securities, Huahai Pharmaceutical, China Merchants Bank and others were among the top players in terms of net flow of main funds; Chang'an Auto was sold more than 600 million yuan, and the net outflow of major funds such as BYD, Zhonggong Education and Yulong Co., Ltd. ranked first.
[Future market view] When looking forward to the market of this week in the article "Ma Qian Pao" last Sunday, I pointed out that the rebound on Monday and Tuesday should not catch up, but it should be down. This week, it rebounded for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index stood on the 60 day line. Yesterday, I continued to think that it would be adjusted on Wednesday and Thursday. Today, the market really adjusted. Although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index held the 60 day line and also held the gap of yesterday, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the "Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation" Index (GEM and Science and Technology Innovation Board) did not stand on the 60 day line, and the signs of turning the trend did not appear.
Although today's adjustment, the decline of individual stocks is also very large, and it may also be adjusted tomorrow, but because last Wednesday's 574.7 billion yuan belongs to the phased "land volume", and last Friday's low 3031 point belongs to the phased "land price", so 3031 point will not fall below for the time being, and it is an opportunity to continue to adjust tomorrow. We are optimistic about the market after the festival. Now large cap stocks such as bank, insurance and real estate are basically stable, and track stocks (wind, light, electricity and energy storage) are also showing signs of stopping falling, so we can go bargain hunting.
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunities are concentrated in epidemic situation concept stocks: the concept stocks of blood oximeter strongly led the gains throughout the day, and the tourism hotel stocks became active again. At the same time, power stocks also rebounded. However, individual stocks in the automotive industry chain have been adjusted collectively. The ebb of theme stocks represented by Guozheng 2000 has not stopped. The bargain hunting layout is not blind buying. Many stocks will not rise if they fall down. The already hyped pharmaceutical stocks and tourism stocks should pay attention to risks.
According to the data, the rare earth price index reported 295.2 on December 26, up 8% month on month, the highest point in nearly four months. Among the specific varieties, Dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide have reached a new high in nearly six months. Relevant stocks: Zhenghai Magnetic Materials (300224), Ningbo Yunsheng (600366), Yujing Shares (002943), China Rare Earth (000831).
China is the country with the richest rare earth resources in the world, with 44 million tons of rare earth reserves in 2021, accounting for more than 35% of the world's total; The output reached 168000 tons, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total. In the first three quarters of this year, the profits of most rare earth permanent magnet enterprises maintained a high growth momentum year on year and month on month. With the continuous support of supply and demand and policies, it is expected that the price center of rare earth will rise steadily from 2022 to 2023, the profits of the industrial chain are expected to continue to release, and attention will be paid to the strategic allocation opportunities of the whole industrial chain of rare earth.
