[Pre market prediction verification] After the one-day trip of "trillion yuan" last Friday, the volume has shrunk for four consecutive days this week. Today, the total volume of the two cities is less than 800 billion yuan, and the market popularity continues to be depressed.
[Trend today] On December 16 (Friday), the market fluctuated all day, and the GEM index led the decline. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.02%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 0.56%, and the GEM Index had fallen 1.06%. The turnover of the two markets was 761.4 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan less than the 766.2 billion yuan of the previous trading day. On the basis of shrinking for four consecutive days, Liangneng continued to shrink by 0.6% today.
In terms of sectors, Ursodeoxycholic acid, Crown Therapy, hotels, cement and other sectors led the increase, while composite collector, TOPCON battery, POE film, integrated die casting and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks fell more than rose, and more than 3500 stocks in the two markets fell.
【 Funds 】 After the one-day trip of "trillion yuan" last Friday, the volume has shrunk for five consecutive days this week, which is really rare. The popularity of the market is extremely low.
Wind data shows that the northbound capital flowed in sharply at the end of the day, with a net purchase of 4.362 billion yuan for the whole day, three consecutive days; Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect net purchased 4.038 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchased 324 million yuan. With the market adjustment, Beijing Capital has become the most active person in the market. Who is cracking down? The data proves that domestic institutions are not doing anything.
Level-2 data shows that the main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 34.3 billion yuan, of which the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market is 13.5 billion yuan, and the main capital outflow of Shenzhen stock market is 20.8 billion yuan.
Today, the main capital flows into medicine, biology, oil, steel and other sectors, and flows out of non-ferrous metals, big finance, chemical and other sectors, of which the net outflow of non-ferrous metals exceeds 1.8 billion.
In terms of individual stocks, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical rose sharply, with a net purchase of 488 million yuan as the main capital, and Fosun Pharmaceutical, N Yandong, Guangshengtang, etc. were among the first to receive a net flow of main capital; Tianqi Lithium was sold more than 500 million yuan, and the net outflow of major funds such as Guizhou Moutai, Yiling Pharmaceutical and Dagang Shares ranked first.
[Future view] On the news side, Vice Premier Liu He pointed out that we are very confident that China's economy will achieve an overall improvement next year. Real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy. In view of the current downside risks, we have introduced some policies and are considering new measures to improve the industry's balance sheet situation and guide the recovery of market expectations and confidence. In the future, China's urbanization is still in a rapid development stage, and there is enough demand space to provide support for the stable development of the real estate industry.
Why is the stock market still depressed? 5 consecutive days of callback this week? As we have just said, the data proves that Beijing Capital has also bought net for three consecutive days, which means that domestic institutions have not acted. Looking back this week, the market is in four words: shrinking adjustment. At the end of the year, the main agencies are unwilling to launch the market during this period. Although it is a bottoming and recovery today, the trading volume does not match. In this way, the bottoming will continue next week. The SSE index will test the 30 day line, and the GEM index will fill the gap on December 1. Will the bottom rise next week? It also depends on the action of the main funds.
[Market opportunity] Today's market opportunities are concentrated in pharmaceutical stocks, and there is a lack of hot spots in the market except pharmaceutical stocks. The real estate sector rose in the morning, but then fell in shock, with track stocks collectively adjusting and photovoltaic concept stocks leading the decline.
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council recently issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), which pointed out that the layout and construction of national logistics hubs, national backbone cold chain logistics bases, and demonstration logistics parks should be coordinated, the backbone logistics infrastructure network at the national level should be optimized, the cross regional logistics service capacity should be improved, and the construction of "channels+hubs+networks" should be supported Modern logistics operation system. Optimize the commercial logistics facility network supported by comprehensive logistics parks, professional distribution centers and terminal distribution outlets.
Since December, the postal express industry has accelerated its recovery and ushered in a new round of business peak. In particular, since December 7, when the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued the Notice on Further Optimizing and Implementing the Prevention and Control Measures for COVID-19, the daily volume of receipts has remained above 360 million. The agency believes that the industry business volume will recover to 122.7 billion pieces in 2023, corresponding to a growth rate of 10%, or the year when the express industry pattern is stable. The leading enterprises can still rely on products and services to increase their share, and their profits grow steadily; Backward enterprises continue to face pressure and pay attention to potential management improvement, cost reduction and fulfillment, or there are opportunities for repair flexibility.
Relevant individual shares: Nanshan Holdings (002314), Tianshun Shares (002800), Sanyang Ma (001317), Ka Shing International (603535)
