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 David Ding
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Is the V-shaped bounce adjusted in place?

(2020-08-12 15:38:00)
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David Ding

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[Message side]
Sino US relations are still facing continuous disturbances, including the possibility that the United States will include more Chinese enterprises in the list of entities. This Saturday, the two sides will hold a video conference to evaluate the first phase of the trade agreement.

[Pre order prediction]
Overnight gold futures in foreign markets fell 4.58%, the biggest one-day decline since March. Like our A-share market yesterday, the US stock market also experienced a last hour plunge. Today, I expected the A-share market to pull back first and then fall. Now it seems that it needs to be corrected. Today, it is estimated that the A-share market will fall first and then rise.

Today, there is a high probability that there will be a downward gap. This gap is very important. The market started at 2646 this year only has an upward gap, and there is no downward gap. We need to observe whether this gap can be filled today. To fill this gap, we need to return to yesterday's closing point of 3340 again, even if the intraday market returns to this point, The closing is still below the closing point of yesterday. It doesn't matter if there is a negative line again. The important thing is not to fill this gap, then it will become the starting gap of the downward market

Today's trend
On August 12 (Wednesday), the market of the two cities bottomed out and recovered, and the neckline was closed As of closing, The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.63% to 3319 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.17% to 13308 points; The index fell 1.98% to 2635 1083.7 billion yuan was transacted in the two markets throughout the day, compared with that of the previous trading day eleven thousand three hundred and forty-six RMB 100 million decrease 50.9 billion yuan, which can be used for 3 consecutive days On the basis of shrinking, it has shrunk by 4.5% again today

Today, the three major indexes rose and fell at the opening. After the opening, they went down unilaterally. The Shanghai Index lost 3300 points and hit 2600 points. Individual stocks in the two cities fell generally, high-ranking stocks fell sharply, and the military industry sector was significantly adjusted. There is a strong fear of heights in the market, short-term popularity is low, and most funds are in a wait-and-see situation. In the afternoon, the overall market rose slightly, and the decline of the index narrowed, but the overall market atmosphere was still poor. Market funds were mainly wait-and-see, and trading volume was significantly shrinking.

[Market hotspot]
From the panel, The airport shipping, automobile disassembly concept and MINILED sectors were relatively active, and the domestic military industry, gold and medical equipment service sectors were among the top decliners in the sector.

Today's hot spots: The concept of Ningde era, in which Cangzhou Pearl rose, while Mindong Power, Keheng Shares, Tianyuan Group, Tianhua Chaojing, etc. followed. On the news side, Ningde Times announced yesterday evening that it plans to invest in high-quality listed enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the domestic and overseas industrial chain by way of securities investment, with the total investment not exceeding 19.067 billion yuan, of which the total overseas investment does not exceed 2.5 billion dollars.

Technical Analysis
From the perspective of the moving average system, today's 20 day line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is dead cross 30 day line, which once fell below these two lines in the session, and the closing position also fell below the 5 day line and 10 day line; Growth Enterprise Market continued its weakness, falling below 3 0 day line, technically double ended. MACD continues green column operation In terms of capacity, The turnover of the two markets exceeded trillion yuan for the 11th consecutive trading day (last time, it remained above trillion yuan for 17 consecutive days).

[Future view]
The trend of the market today is a little like that of last Friday. It first bottoms out (3263 points) and then rebounds, and draws the hanging neck line with the shadow line. If so, then tomorrow should be low open and high close.

The V-shaped rebound in today's session( 3300 points lost and recovered )Is it properly adjusted? I think that because the daily MACD goes out“ Inverted duckbill ”Trend, so the adjustment space is not in place yet, but there may be a rebound tomorrow.

The reason for the rebound tomorrow is that there is a long shadow line today, but The GEM's leading indicators are not good, nor are individual stocks. The market popularity is poor, and the market loss effect increases.

The tone of the big trend bull market has not changed. In the short term, it is to adjust the trend. This short-term adjustment Maybe it will fall, maybe it will take one step back two steps, Point 3174 is the support position. That is, time for space. The decline is not large, but with the extension of time, the 100 point decline can fall for a long time.

[Operation
Today, the position was reduced as planned, and now it is less than 30% of the position, waiting for the next opportunity.

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