2015 is destined to be an extraordinary year. The market's "frequent huge shocks, sharp rises and falls, big ups and downs" seems to be the label of the beginning of A-share market and the new normal in the new bull market. Although the short-term ups and downs are very violent, investors' confidence in taking a long position has not been hurt, and the Shanghai Index still hit a new high in this round. Last week, the market first held back and then rose. Bulls gained and lost 3400 points for three consecutive weeks, indicating that the pressure on this position is still high. The biggest feature of the week is that the news affects the market's ups and downs. The main force used the news to suppress and pull up the stock index, which was vividly interpreted. The Shanghai index quickly recovered its lost ground after a sharp fall. However, no matter how the three attacks of 3400 points failed, it must be thought-provoking and cautious. This week is the closing week of January. Whether the red market can be closed in January will be the key to 2015. This week, whether to continue to attack or build a triple top, and pay close attention to whether blue chips can rise in turn, which is the key to whether 3400 points can be effectively broken through, is still under David's observation. As the saying goes, if the sun is collected in a month, the sun will be collected throughout the year; If it is negative in January, it will be negative all year round. The "January effect" will determine the way of A share bull market.
Although the Shanghai Stock Index fell sharply last Monday, the trend after that was gradually upward, and set a new high on Friday. The goal of the upward movement was to reach 3478 points in front of the Jianzhi. If the 3400 points of the three rallies failed, it was because of the impact of the news and the difficulty of the big financial rally. After three ups and three downs, the high point of 3478 in 2009 is getting closer and closer with the continuous efforts of many parties. From the perspective of technical analysis, only when the future market completely effectively breaks through 3478 points, which is the neck line of 1664-1849 points, can the effective breakthrough be confirmed morphologically, and the new upward cycle can start, so as to get a real bull market.
It may take some time for the Shanghai Index to break through 3478. David said earlier that 1991, as the bottom of the current round of starting market, may see a high point at 3478-3698. In fact, this is mainly an expected target, and further research and judgment should be made according to the market situation. There is no obvious sign of style switching in the market, and the overall enthusiasm for hype has not subsided. People can still focus on undervalued blue chips. As the banking stocks in the financial stock troika, as well as the petrochemical and other heavyweight stocks, have not increased significantly compared with the securities companies and insurance companies, once they have soared, you should not be surprised to win 4000 points.
The formation of the periodic top can only be confirmed by the following conditions: first, the Shanghai Index is no longer at a new high on the weekly line, that is, it cannot break through 3406 points; Second, it effectively fell below the 5 week line and the 20 day line; Third, it effectively broke the line from the low of 2437 on November 12 to 3095 on January 19; Fourth, it effectively broke the previous peak at 3223 points on December 29. After the formation of the periodic head, the Shanghai Index will consolidate the next step, and the 30 day line, the lifeline of the bull market, will become the key to the reversal of the market. Of course, when the rising trend has not been completely reversed, we can still hold rolling shares, but we must treat individual stocks differently.
The GEM index has basically confirmed the periodic bottom since it was supported to stop falling at 1429 on the 250 day annual line on January 5. After the previous continuous upward attack broke through 1700 points, and hit a new historical high of 1744 with Liulianyang's forced upward attack, there was a downward trend. It is a reasonable choice to reach a high of 1674 before stepping back. In the medium term, it will continue to be bullish. It is not ruled out that a new high is expected in the future. According to the current formation of [1435-1429] small double bottoms, once the 1674 points of the neck line are stepped back, the breakthrough is confirmed to be effective. According to the theoretical rise of the double bottoms, the target is directed to 1916 area. Namely: 1674 - [1435+1429/2]+1674, or will advance to a higher position.
In the face of such a market, with the continuous rise of the market, there are many varieties that have been fully adjusted in the early stage. You should fully select the individual stocks that have just formed a bottom and formed an upward trend, and you should pay attention. If you have already held stocks, you must hold them. Once you encounter the opportunity of adjustment, you must buy them decisively, because they are often the strongest bull stocks in the market. The selection of varieties should not be framed by such thick lines as blue chips or small and medium-sized stocks, because the valuation of large blue chips has been repaired, the high growth is the main target of the future market, and the dance of February and August is more important, so it is consistent with the long-term development of the bull market. Since it is determined that the future market will be bullish in the medium and long term, many stocks will have the opportunity to rise, and the future earning effect will gradually appear, so it is not difficult to earn both index and money.
All parties in the market have basically reached a consensus to go long, which shows their optimistic expectations for the future A-share market. Multiple interests will help the bull market move steadily and further. Since the fundamental logic of supporting this round of blue chip market has not changed, the slow bull market will be the main theme in the future. The management pushed for transformation and reform, and the central bank also frequently released liquidity to promote the economy; The CSRC is also actively promoting the stock market registration system, which has laid the foundation for the long-term strength of A-shares. After experiencing the fast bull market on a weekly and monthly basis, the main force made great efforts to clean up the market by taking advantage of the two financing profits. The purpose is to clean up the floating funds in the early stage. After the rapid recovery of lost land, the next week may usher in a more violent shock, but this kind of shock is more about the transition from fast to slow. Investors are naturally full of confidence in the future stock market. After a strong adjustment, the market is bound to be more exciting.
David firmly believes that the bottoms at 2000 are perfectly constructed. After 16 months and more than a year of construction of the [1949-1849-1974] head and shoulder bottoms, it is basically confirmed that the bear market since 6124 has ended. 1849 is the starting point of the bull market in A-share history equivalent to 325, 998 and 1664 in the past 25 years. 3478 is an important key point to confirm the bull market, where opportunities must outweigh risks. There is no need to obsess over short-term ups and downs in the bull market. Every correction should be a good opportunity to buy in the medium and long term. We must have firm confidence, choose good listed companies and hold shares patiently. At present, the most important thing is to keep up with the pace of market hot spots and main forces, hold shares to be raised in the rising, adjust positions and exchange shares in the callback, and actively select blue chip stocks for operation. Value investment should be put in the first place, and do not repeat the mistake of only earning index but not making money. In response, David suggested that investors who currently hold blue chips with outstanding performance, transformation themes and growth stocks should adopt the band strategy of "central line holding and rolling operation" until the end of this bull market.
Personal analysis is only for reference Be conceited about winning or losing
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In the technical analysis, there is no simpler and more effective application in operation than the EMA system. The analysis method of the moving average indicator: when a long arrangement is formed in the short, medium and long term, the shareholding is to be increased. On the contrary, when a short position is formed, hold the money and wait. When the 5-day line and the 10 day line are golden crosses, the bottom has appeared. When the 5-day line and the 30 day line are golden crosses, we see a rebound; When the 5-day line and the 60 day line are crossed, we look at the intermediate rebound; When the 5th line and the 120th half year line are golden crossing, we are looking at the medium-term market; When the 5-day line and the 250 day line cross, what we see is that the bull market is coming, and there will be a big market. On the contrary, the 5-day line and other short, medium and long term moving averages are dead ends, and there will be corresponding adjustments and bear markets. Investors will know how to operate by comparing the individual stocks you hold with this method. If you are a steady investor, you can set the trading conditions as follows: 5 weeks and 10 weeks' journey gold fork buying, holding shares to rise. On the contrary, the 5-week line and the 10 week line form a dead cross to sell and leave the field to wait and see. Because generally speaking, any 5-week line up (down) 10 week line means at least one month long (short) market. This has been verified in the history of A-share for more than 20 years. You can't believe it. At present, the Shanghai Stock Index stands firmly on the 5-week line. The 5-week line and the 10 week line form a golden cross. The short and medium term moving average lines form a long line. Whether you hold shares in the medium term is up is up to you.
The macro determines the general trend, the policy promotes the hot spots, and the technology judges the import and export. Those who know before make big money, those who know after make small money, and those who do not know can only stand guard. The A-share market has been circulating in this way for more than 20 years. Bull market does not say the top, bear market does not say the bottom. Bull's eyes are full of gold, and bear's heart is full of tops. In David's investment career of more than 20 years, he has carefully studied the principles of the "5-Day Line Operation Method": "The short-term line looks at the daily line, the middle line looks at the weekly line, and the long-term line looks at the monthly line". Stand firm on the short-term approach of the 5-day line, hold shares on the central line of the 5-week line, and hold shares on the long-term line of the 5-month line. On the contrary, if you fall below the threshold, you will leave. In this way, you will not be missed or deeply trapped. You will not get off the bus before the market starts, nor stand guard for others after the market ends. This is the technical level that a mature investor should have. For band operators, when the stock index (individual stock) stands above the 5-day line, they can build positions in a short time, and when they fall below the 5-day line, they need to leave the field for short-term observation. Based on this, they can operate the band according to this method. As long as they are still above 2815 points of the May line before the end of January, they should hold shares in the medium and long term and wait to rise.
