The last blog post said: "Technically speaking, the SSE will fluctuate from 1960 to 2260 for several months, perhaps longer. The main purpose of this movement is to let the real economy keep up with the pace of the financial economy. After all, the SSE has lost one third of the points from 3400 to 2200. If the real economy does not keep up with the pace, the SSE may still rise. This is the only hope of long-term shareholders. If the real economy catches up with the sharp decline of the financial economy, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will have a devastating fall in a few months, from more than 2200 points to 1664 or lower. This may be after summer.

Since my blog in January, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has basically fluctuated between 2200 and 2500 points. The prediction of technical analysis is obviously conservative, and it also shows that the real economy has not kept up with the sharp decline of the financial economy at the end of last year, and the Shanghai Stock Index has been able to take a breather and hover at a slightly higher price than the technical analysis. Half a year has passed. How is the situation now? As I said, months Is the subsequent devastating slump ongoing? See the figure below.

Where will China's stock market go at the beginning of the new year? This is a concern of many friends. The performance of domestic stock indexes in global stock indexes is commendable from a negative perspective. With the fluctuation of the stock index around 2200 points, can investors expect a big rebound this year, so that long-term holders can see a glimmer of hope and speculators can catch up? The answer is yes, but only in terms of catching one.

Here is a weekly chart of bank asset repurchase rate. The so-called asset repurchase rate, in non jargon, means that you have some assets, and if you want to exchange some cash out of urgent need, go to the bank. The bank said it would be OK to give you some money to collect your interest, but you must take your assets as collateral and ask you to repay money regularly to "buy" the assets back. This interest is called repo rate. Of course, the "you" here are usually companies, not individuals. The higher the interest, the tighter the company's capital chain, and the less money the assets can offset. What is shown here is the repo rate between banks to fill positions for cash. I have no data on other repo rates for the time being.

It was reported on Thursday that the euro rescue plan was approved, and the global market rose explosively. Most investors will be dizzy by this craze, thinking that this is the beginning of a bull market. wait a moment!

Let's start with the rescue plan. According to the information currently available, all private (corporate individuals, etc.) Greek government bonds will be reduced by 50% European banks need to raise US $147 billion in eight months, and the European Financial Stability Fund will expand to US $1.4 trillion.

Fifty percent!

If you hold Greek debt, you can't get 50%. What is this? What is not debt bankruptcy? Europeans and Americans like to use euphemism to buffer the description of certain things. But frankly, this is bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the 50% deduction for private debt holders only reduced Greece's total debt level by about 22%. Secondly, even after these deductions, the national debt of Greece still accounts for more than 130% of GDP. The country also boldly predicted that it would reduce its debt to 120% by 2020.

Of course, these figures cannot include the money that the International Monetary Fund gives Greece. The International Monetary Fund will lend Greece $137 billion. Find a primary school student to calculate, but after obtaining new funds of 137 billion dollars (almost equal to the deduction amount), Greece is still expected to be completely bankrupt in 2020. This simple arithmetic has refuted the official statement completely. As for Greece's failure to pay off the first round of relief funds, we should forget all about it.

In my humble opinion, the reduction of Greek debt is too small, at least 80% is meaningful, otherwise

On September 11, 2011, my daughter downloaded this photo from the Internet, which reminded me of some memories. Who is the person in the picture? Did he survive? According to the photo, this person was photographed before the first plane (from Boston) crashed into the World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan. The Empire State Building in Manhattan is in the background.

For those who have experienced 911 in the past ten years, this day has become a permanent memory. I want to write some scattered words in addition to my stock comments to commemorate those who Countless innocent people lost their lives in terrorist attacks.

Ten years ago, 8:46 a.m. EDT was an important time to change history, and I was also a witness to that time. I work in a bank in Lower Manhattan and come in and out of the World Trade Center in New York every day. I remember that that day was Tuesday. Before 8 o'clock, I took the New Jersey subway in New York to go through the Hudson River Tunnel to the World Trade Center. I boarded the long escalator from the subway platform to the street, passed through the luxury stores on the inner floor of the World Trade Center, and came out from the southeast exit of the World Trade Center. from

In the world, the dollar index is falling, quietly at 73 A historic bottom point was made nearby. This does not rule out that the dollar index will again test the bottom point near 72:8 or even hit a new low due to the random behavior of the market. However, as a wind vane, the stability of the dollar near 73 marks the end of the historic asset inflation in the past two years. More evidence? When gold reached a record high when the British royal family held another wedding that attracted global attention 30 years later, silver quietly killed 47.3% This is an important support point. When gold reached 1579 on Monday, silver turned around and lost $5 (Monday morning data).

Admittedly, it is impossible to accurately predict the global asset inflection point. I made a deflationary forecast of the world's financial trend when gold was just over $1000, but gold continued to hit a new record. In the field of prediction, it is normal to make mistakes, especially in time judgment. Since it was wrong in the past, it may still be judged wrong this time. Here is a warning for the readers of this article.

As the saying goes, if you can avoid the first day, you can't avoid the 15th day. Many economic evidences show that the inflection point has already occurred. From the domestic demand trend of China's real estate development to the consumption growth and employment distribution of Australian consumers, from the profit trend of high-tech stocks to the rapid decline of various trading volumes on Wall Street, from the bullish sentiment of major indexes to the collapse of precious metals, from the decline of the U.S. consumer confidence index to the transitional confidence of the Federal Reserve in the economy, from the European sovereign debt crisis, To downgrade to high-quality US treasury bonds

Is gold going to sink? If you ask your friends, they will never think so. Because popular views are so popular that anyone who holds opposite views has to doubt whether they are wrong. The prevailing view is that when central banks start printing money, how can gold not rise? Gold goes up, prices go up, and real estate goes up. As long as the central bank is working hard, you only need to understand one word: buy. With the help of speculators in the international investment community (such as Rogers), gold can only rise to $2000, $4000, how bold people are and how productive gold is.

Can popular views be wrong? of course. In terms of investment, popular views are always wrong. There is a saying on Wall Street that when it is objective, it is obviously wrong， What is inevitable is not inevitable, that is to say, the trend that everyone has seen clearly is often wrong. Let's not go too far. When the Shanghai stock market hit 5000 points, even monks and nuns began to speculate in the stock market; Think of the time when people queued up all night to buy gold bullion when inflation occurred in the United States and even in the West in 1979; Think about various bubbles, technology stocks, real estate, etc. in recent years, and this has a deeper meaning.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the trend chart of gold price. Here is the golden daily chart of recent months.

8：56 Gold broke 1365 on Friday, and the euro fell over 1.29, short-term oversold. Oil prices rebounded. The market rose 2880 on Friday without success, and took profits at the end of the day. It is estimated that the market will climb again today.

9: 56 The CSI 300 index opened higher as scheduled, but sales increased and the technical graph began to deteriorate. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to be in the green zone. The time sharing chart of January futures shows that today is likely to be over

10: 04 Go out of the warehouse. No love war. If 2720 cannot be held, see 2560 or 2430. The time sharing chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange begins to deteriorate, and may fall sharply today and tomorrow

10: 08 The gold price should return above 1380 to prepare for the next round of decline

10: 45 short-term support, 2810, 2760

11: Indonesia Jakarta Index plummeted and Southeast Asia faced risks