The risk early warning system is a system that, according to the characteristics of the research object, collects relevant information, monitors the change trend of risk factors, evaluates the degree of deviation of various risk states from the early warning line, sends early warning signals to the decision-making level and takes pre control measures in advance.Therefore, to build an early warning system, we must first buildEvaluation index system, and analyze and process the indicator categories;Secondly, according to the early warning model, the evaluation index system is comprehensively evaluated;Finally, the early warning interval is set according to the evaluation results, and corresponding countermeasures are taken.
With the accession to WTO,State-owned commercial bank To participate in international competition, we need to be able to meet the requirements of international standards in risk managementBasel AccordThere is still a big gap between the requirements of the Bank and the Bank. How to strengthen risk management and improve the level of risk management has become an important issue faced by domestic commercial banks.Our government has always attached great importance to the reform and development of state-owned banks.In order to better adapt the state-owned banks to the domestic marketmarket economyTo meet the development needs of foreign peers after China's accession to the WTO, based on the guiding ideology of "establishing a risk prevention mechanism and improving competitiveness" in the outline of the "Tenth Five Year Plan", it is proposed to "improve the internal governance structure of financial institutions, form a business mechanism that combines strict constraints and effective incentives, improve the sound accounting system and improve the quality of financial assets"Strategic deployment.It can be seen that preventing financial risks has become the top priority of the reform of state-owned banks.
Affected by the economic system transformation, the low quality of assets has long plagued the state-owned banks, becoming the mainfinancial risk , directly threatening the survival and development of state-owned banks.In order to improve the quality of assets, the Chinese government set up asset management companies for the four major state-owned commercial banks in 1999 and 2000, respectivelyNon performing assets1.3 trillion yuanNon-performing LoanThe ratio dropped by 10 percentage points on average.However, proceedDivestitureIt can only alleviate the impact of existing non-performing loans. The ratio of non-performing loans after stripping (25%) is still higher than the supervision level of the People's Bank of China (15%), and new non-performing assets are still emerging. It is temporary and limited to rely on external forces to improve asset quality after all.As a commercial bank facing the international market, state-owned banks should rely on their own efforts to solve the problem of non-performing assets.Establishing and improving the risk management system and improving the level of risk management are important foundations for the sustainable development of commercial banks.
In the risk management system, it generally needs to include risk management plan, risk identification, risk qualitative analysis, risk quantitative analysis, risk response and risk monitoring.On the other hand, the essence of risk management is the management of uncertainty, so this uncertainty will not only bring threats to banks, but also may mean opportunities. Therefore, strengthening risk management can also help banks find new opportunities.Risk management runs through the whole business process of the bank's various businesses, including before, during and after the event. However, the earlier risks are found and measures are taken, the lower the cost of risk management will be, and the greater the benefits to the enterprise will be.According to the 1:10:100 theory, if the cost of risk control in the first stage is 1, then if measures are taken in the second stage, the cost will be 10, and the cost in the third stage will be 100.Therefore, the planning and predictability of risk management are generally emphasized in the field of risk management.The risk early warning system can be used for risk identificationrisk analysis Risk monitoring provides powerful means and plays an extremely important role in the whole risk management system.
Risk prediction requires comprehensive analysis of a large amount of information. Backward manual management means can no longer adapt. Only relying on high-tech means, combined with manual management, and improving the automation level and processing ability of analysis can gradually improve the accuracy and timeliness of risk prediction.Therefore, the establishment of a highly automated and intelligent risk early warning system, in close cooperation with other systems of the bank, will play an active role in the bank's risk management system.[1]
System connotation
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As a comprehensive social activity integrating economy, technology, management, organization and other aspects, enterprise activities are uncertain in all aspects.The enterprise risk early warning system is an effective means to establish a risk assessment system, carry out risk pre control, defuse the occurrence of risks, and minimize the losses caused by risks.Enterprise activitiesrisk analysis It has become one of the important measures to ensure the business activities of enterprises and create the maximum benefits by managing, preventing and resolving the occurrence of risks, and controlling the losses caused by risks to the minimum.
Enterprise riskThe early warning system mainly includes three subsystems, namely, risk identification subsystem, risk evaluation subsystem and risk early warning subsystem.The key of the risk identification subsystem is to establish a systematic view of risk identification and analysis.The commonly used methods are checklistWBS、Cause and effect analysis diagram, flow chart.The risk assessment subsystem is to identifyrisk factor Quantification and importance evaluation are carried out, and then the early warning subsystem is used to judge whether the alarm should be sent and the level of the alarm.[1]
System construction
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In the risk early warning subsystem, according to the actual situation of the research object and the experience of the risk manager, reasonably divide the risk early warning interval and judgeRiskIn normal, alert or dangerous state.
（1） Delineation of early warning zone
The division of early warning zones includes the division of police districts and the determination of alarm limits.Risk early warning can be divided into five zones, namely Zone I (low risk zone), Zone II (low risk zone), Zone III (medium risk zone), Zone IV (high risk zone) and Zone V (high risk zone).The risk evaluation grade generally adopts the 5-point system, namely: "very good", "good", "average", "poor", "very poor", and the evaluation score is 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.So the evaluation vector C=[5, 4, 3, 2, 1] T.Therefore, if 4<C ≤ 5, the project risk is in the low risk area;If 3<C ≤ 4, it is in a lower risk zone;If 2<C ≤ 3, it is in the medium risk area and needs attention;If 1<C ≤ 2, it is in a higher risk area and needs to be monitored;If 0<C ≤ 1, it is in a high-risk area, and relevant measures should be taken.
（2） Design the light signal display system
The early warning system can adopt the light signal display method similar to the traffic control signal light.Since the system has five warning zones, a five light display system can be designed, namely "blue light", "green light", "yellow light", "orange light" and "red light" for single warning.For different warning zones, the warning information displayed on the light display will be different (see Table 1).
in summary,Enterprise riskThe early warning system is a very complex system project, involving many factors and many methods.This paper discusses the basic framework of early warning system, hoping to provide reference for enterprises to build risk early warning system.For enterprises that adopt or consider this risk management methodOrganizational change, system implementation mode, etc. need to be further studied.[1]
Railway early warning system
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Current situation of railway safety
In recent years, with the development of China's railways, the originalSafety production responsibility systemThe traditional safety management mode at the core can no longer fully meet the needs of modern railway safety.It is imperative to accelerate the promotion of advanced and scientific safety risk management mode, strengthen the organic integration of safety risk pre control management and existing safety management, and minimize safety risks.The railway industry has achieved initial results in implementing safety risk management.In 2012, the former Ministry of Railways issued the Guiding Opinions on Deepening Railway Safety Risk Management, and from 2013, the work idea of taking safety risk management as the main line should be implemented.All professional departments and railway bureaus of China Railway Corporation (hereinafter referred to as the "Corporation") have successively issued relevant safety risk management measures;Some railway bureaus have established a safety risk database to further clarify the control measures for various risks by identifying the main safety risks;Some railway bureaus have formulated guidance manuals, safety risk control tables and post risk control cards for professional system safety risks, which have played a positive role in moving forward safety management.However, in view of the short implementation time of safety risk management in the railway industry, there are still some problems in safety risk management and control, mainly in the following aspects.
(1) Lack of unified security risk management platform.At present, each railway bureau has built its own safety risk management system;Even in a railway bureau, all disciplines build their own safety risk management and control system.From the head office level, the lack of a unified security risk management platform has led to the emergence of "information islands" and different processing methods, which is not conducive to standardization construction.
(2) Incomplete safety risk management information.A large amount of safety inspection information and safety risk management and control information are stored in each railway bureau or station. The safety supervision and management department of the head office cannot obtain the management and control of various safety risks in real time, nor can it provide decision support for management based on historical data, leading to increased management costs.
(3) The safety risk control method is not perfect.Identification of main safety risksSafety evaluationThe formulation of safety risk control measures lacks unified standards;For typical security risk governance cases, no effective security risk dictionary has been established.
system design
In order to solve the above safety risk management problems in the railway industry and improve the level of safety risk management, it is necessary to establish a two-level unified railway safety risk early warning system (hereinafter referred to as "risk early warning system") between the head office and the railway bureau.
1. System requirements
The main service objects of the system are the safety supervision and management personnel of the two-level safety supervision department of the head office and the railway bureau, as well as leaders at all levels and management personnel of safety related business departments.
(1) Head office users: query the risk database data and comprehensive information related to risk monitoring of the whole railway in real time, mainly including accident investigation and processing information such as safety supervision report, accident identification letter, accident investigation report, safety inspection information sheet, safety supervision notice, leaders' addition, on-site realistic report, safety assessment, safety meeting and other safety inspection information,Alarms reported by the safety monitoring system of each transportation related professional system and information on alarm disposal.In addition, the user also needs to query the safety status evaluation information of each railway bureau in real time, and send the safety supervision notice, safety supervision instruction, safety supervision inspection praise, and safety early warning notice to each railway bureau according to the actual situation.
(2) Railway bureau users: query the risk database data and risk monitoring related comprehensive information within the scope of the bureau in real time;Query the safety status evaluation information within the scope of the bureau in real time;Carry out rectification and feedback on the "four books" issued by the head office.
2. System framework
The railway safety risk early warning system is deployed at the head office level and the railway bureau level respectively.The head office level risk early warning system serves the head office users;The railway bureau level system is deployed in 18 railway bureaus respectively, serving railway bureau users.Passing between two systemsWeb ServicesData exchange.The logical structure of the railway safety risk early warning system is the core business layer, application middleware layer, data resource layer and support platform construction layer from top to bottom.
(1) Core business layer.It mainly includes risk database management, risk monitoring, risk early warning, "four books" management, system maintenance and other functions.Risk database management is the basis for data collection, evaluation and calculation of risk monitoring and early warning.The risk monitoring function is to collect risk data based on the risk database, and the collected data will be calculated by the risk early warning subsystem to obtain the evaluation results.The "four books" management function carries out risk management and control according to the evaluation conclusion of the risk early warning function.
(2) Application middleware layer.It mainly includes integration framework, workflow engine, report engine, data transmission based on Web Service, evaluation model, graphical tools and other components. The application of these components provides technical support for the implementation of the core business layer.
(3) Data resource layer.The main object of management is data, including public basic data, safety inspection data, traffic accident data, risk monitoring data, risk assessment data and statistical analysis data.These data must be uniformly planned and stored, and security mechanisms and control specifications must be established.
(4) Support the platform layer.It mainly includes operating system software, database platform, network platform and other hardware facilities.
3. System functions
(1) Risk library management.The risk early warning system database contains risk factor database and risk accident database, which is the basis of safety risk data collection, monitoring, early warning and analysis.Risk factors refer to the conditions that cause or increase the chance of risk accidents or expand the scope of losses, and are the potential causes of risk accidents;Risk accidents are accidental events that cause loss of life and property, direct or external causes of losses, and media of losses.Risk database management is mainly responsible for the maintenance of risk factors and risk accident dictionary, including entry, modification, deletion, archiving, etc.
(2) Risk monitoring.Based on the train operation, personal and off road accidents, equipment failures and daily inspection information that have occurred in the railway, monitor and record the frequency of safety risks, the severity of damage caused, and so on, and then evaluate and statistically analyze the risks, and carry out risk related regulatory analysis.In addition, the cause, unit, nature and level of the accident are also analyzed.
(3) Risk warning.It includes outstanding early warning, year-on-year early warning and month on month early warning for risk factors and risk accidents.Risk accidents are predicted according to time series and other algorithms. When the predicted value exceeds the set threshold, an early warning prompt is given.Based on the number of accidents, the number of equipment failures, the situation of safety inspection problems and the ranking of semi annual evaluation, the safety status of all railway bureaus and specialties along the railway is evaluated.
(4) "Four books" management.Based on the evaluation results of risk early warning, send the "four books" to the forewarned railway bureau, and review, query and count the "four books".
(5) System maintenance.It includes the setting of user basic information, user roles and functional permissions, as well as the maintenance of basic data such as stations, lines and organizations.
key technology
1. Workflow technology
In the process of system operation, information needs to be transferred among multiple units;Different kinds of information collection and processing processes will also have certain differences.Taking the "four books" management as an example, its core business process is: the head office user checks the safety management work of the railway bureau, fills in the safety notice/instruction after finding safety problems, and issues them to the railway bureau;The Railway Administration shall carry out the follow-up safety management work according to the processing requirements of the head office, fill in the rectification measures against the notice/instruction and feed back to the head office.The head office checks the feedback and cancels the completed notices/instructions.In order to meet the different requirements of different processes, workflow technology is applied in the system design and development.According to the definition of Workflow Management Coalition (WFMC), workflow is a kind of process that can be fully or partially automatically executed. According to a series of process rules, documents, information or tasks can be transferred and executed between different performers.Workflow technology separates the application logic from the process logic. It can achieve the purpose of changing the system function without modifying the specific function implementation but only modifying the configuration model, so as to realize the effective management of part or all of the business process.Workflow has the characteristics of multi person collaboration, work transmission, multi node composition and state change.The process of realizing the above "four books" management business process based on workflow is as follows.
(1) First, you need to define roles for this business process, such as "head office sender" and "railway bureau receiver".
(2) Define the nodes of the business process. ①Distribution of books; ②Rectification and reply; ③Cancellation.
(3) Define the role of each node and its corresponding functions. ①The issuance of the book is operated by the role of "head office issuer", and the operation content includes entering the number, content, rectification requirements, receiving unit and other information of the "four books"; ②After the operation is completed, the process enters the next node "Rectification and Reply", which is operated by the role of "Railway Administration Receiver", and the operation content includes entering the specific rectification situation, rectification time and other information of the "Four Books"; ③The "Cancellation" node is operated by the "Head Office Sender" role. After receiving the feedback information from the "Railway Bureau Receiver", it enters the cancellation comments, and the process ends.By extending the nodes and roles of the above processes, and defining the node functions and the relationship between nodes and roles, the "four books" business process can be flexibly extended.In addition, in the process of workflow implementation, process tracking and log information need to be recorded to ensure the traceability of the flow and the accuracy of the calculation of status information in the process of information flow.
2. Data transmission based on Web Service
The risk early warning system is deployed according to the two-level deployment of the head office and the railway bureau, so a large amount of business data transmission and synchronization are required between the two-level systems.Web services are based onSimple Object Access Protocol(SOAP), the data exchange format is Extensible Markup Language (XML), which has the advantages of high encapsulation, standardization, loose coupling and high intensity in data transmission, and is suitable for solving the data transmission problem between the head office and the railway bureau.The system designs a data transmission component based on Web Service.The end that needs to initiate data transmission corresponds to the client in the figure. For example, if it needs to transmit data from the head office to the railway bureau, then the head office is the client of data transmission, and the railway bureau corresponds to the server.The client mainly provides function modules such as parameter resolution, circular call, callback notification and log recording. The circular call module calls the Web services on the server in turn according to the time sequence and weight to transmit data according to the set time interval. If the call fails due to bad network conditions or other factors,The client will retain this call information and repeat the call at the next call time until success.The server mainly includes security verification, parameter resolution, Web service and logging modules.
3. Risk assessment
The risk matrix reflects the relationship between the possibility and severity of the risk, and is used to measure whether the safety risk of hazardous events is acceptable.The risk early warning system uses the risk matrix method to quantitatively calculate the risk value of risk factors.With reference to the requirements for risk levels in the national standard Specifications and Examples for Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety of Rail Transit (GB/T 21562-2008), risk levels are defined as three levels: ① high risk, i.e. unacceptable risk, which requires further control of hazards and termination of action in extreme circumstances; ②Medium risk, that is, after further analysis, it is determined whether rectification is needed. The risk level is generally considered tolerable, but the risk should be further reduced; ③Low risk, which can be ignored, but should be monitored continuously.[2]
