risk

[fēng xiǎn]

Chinese words

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Risk refers to the production purpose and Labor achievements Between Uncertainty , roughly has two meanings: one definition emphasizes that risk is represented by uncertainty of return; The other definition emphasizes that risk is expressed as uncertainty of cost or cost. If risk is expressed as uncertainty of income or cost, it indicates that the result of risk may bring loss , gain or no loss and no gain, which belongs to broad risk, and the owner's exercise of ownership activities should be considered as Managing risk ， financial risk Belongs to this class. However, risk is shown as the uncertainty of loss, which means that risk can only show loss, and there is no possibility of profit from risk. It belongs to narrow sense Risk. Risk is proportional to return, so generally aggressive investors prefer high-risk In order to obtain higher profits, the prudent investors focus on safety considerations.

Chinese name: risk
Foreign name: risk

Pinyin: fēng xiǎn
Phonetic transcription: ㄈㄥㄒㄧㄢˇ
Citation explanation: Refers to the possible danger

catalog

four classification
▪ By nature
▪ According to the subject
▪ According to behavior
▪ According to the production environment
▪ According to the cause
five nature

Chinese vocabulary

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Basic explanation

[ risk ; hazard ]Danger; Loss suffered hurt , disadvantage or possibility of destruction.

run a risk 。^[1]

Generally speaking, risk is the occurrence of unfortunate events probability 。 In other words, risk refers to the possibility of an event producing undesirable consequences. The combination of possibility and consequence of a specific hazardous situation.

In a broad sense, as long as there are two or more possibilities for the occurrence of an event, it is considered that the event has risks. In insurance theory and practice, risk only refers to the uncertainty of loss. This kind of uncertainty includes the uncertainty of occurrence, occurrence time and result.

interpretation

1. It refers to the possible danger. 2. It also refers to danger in general.

example sentence

1. It refers to the possible danger.

Mao Dun "Midnight" 2: "You see if there is any risk in this matter."

Du Pengcheng Chapter II of Safeguarding Yan'an: "We Northern Shaanxi The people dare to do anything risky to wipe out the enemy for their own forces. "

2. It also refers to danger in general.^[2]

Wei Wei Zhuangxing Collection - Blessing People Going to Life: "Sometimes there are flowering valleys, sometimes there are singing Stream water But it is not without cliffs, cliffs, beasts and risks. "^[3]

Guo Moruo "Li Bai and Du Fu · Du Fu's Class Consciousness": "After the shopkeeper avoided the risk, he fled back."

Ma Feng 、 Xirong The eleventh chapter of The Heroes of Lvliang:, whip stay Wang Xiangzi The body and head sounded like mud. This is the first time for Wang to encounter such risks. "^[1]

Gao Yunlan Chapter 8 of Spring and Autumn in a Small Town: "The tone of Xiu Wei is full of young enthusiasm And ignorance of risk. "^[4]

Basic meaning

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The enterprise is in the process of achieving its goals operating activities , we will encounter various uncertain events probability It is impossible to predict the impact of these events on business activities in advance Enterprise objectives The degree of realization. Under certain circumstances and within a certain period of time objective existence All kinds of uncertain events that affect the realization of enterprise goals are risks. In short, the so-called risk refers to a certain environment condition The degree of difference between the expected goal and the actual result.

Risk origin

The origin of the word "risk" is the most common saying that in ancient times, fishermen who lived by fishing had to pray every time before going to sea to pray for the gods to bless their safe return. The main prayer content is to let the gods bless their peaceful and full return when going to sea; In their long-term fishing practice, they deeply realized the unpredictable and uncertain risks brought to them by "wind". They realized that in the life of fishing at sea, "wind" means "danger", so the word "risk" came into being.

The other is the "origin theory" of the word "risk", which is said to have been demonstrated by many scholars. The word "RISK" is Imported goods , some people think that Arabic Some people think that it comes from Spanish or Latin , but the more authoritative statement comes from Italian "RISQUE". In the early application, it is also understood as an objective danger, which is reflected in natural phenomena Or sailing against rocks, storms and other events. In the 19th century, the word "risk" was often spelled in French in English, mainly used in matters related to insurance.

The word "risk" in the modern sense has gone far beyond the narrow sense of "encounter danger", but "encounter opportunities or dangers of destruction or loss". It can be said that after more than 200 years of history, the word "risk" has become more and more conceptualized, and human activity And has been endowed with a broader and deeper meaning in philosophy, economics, sociology, statistics, and even culture and art policy decision With the increasingly close connection with the consequences of behavior, the word risk has become a word with high frequency in people's life.

Regardless of the origin of the definition of risk, its basic core meaning is "uncertainty or loss of future results", and some people further define it as "the possibility of individuals and groups encountering harm in the future, as well as the judgment and cognition of this possibility". If appropriate measures are taken to make probability It will not happen, or it can be said that intelligent cognition, rational judgment, and then taking timely and effective preventive measures, then risks may bring opportunities, which further extends the meaning, not only to avoid risks, but also may bring proportional benefits. Sometimes the greater the risk, the higher the return, the greater the opportunities.

Nature of risk

Risk has objectivity 、 universality 、 Inevitability , identifiability Controllability , loss, uncertainty and Social 。

Risk cost

Due to the existence of risks and Risk accident What people have to do after it happens expenditure Cost increases and expectations economic interest The reduction of risk is also called the cost of risk.

include Risk loss Of actual cost , risk loss Intangible cost And the cost of preventing and controlling risk losses.

Risk unit

Occurs once Risk accident May cause Subject matter maximal loss Range. yes insurance company Determine the maximum insurance they can afford responsibility Calculation basis of.

《 Insurance Law of the People's Republic of China 》Article 103 clearly stipulates that the insurance company shall Dangerous unit , i.e. once Insured accident The liability for the maximum possible loss shall not exceed the actual Capital fund plus accumulation fund 10% of the total; The excess part shall be handled reinsurance 。

Related concepts

I risk factor : refers to the ability to generate or increase probability of ruin and Degree of loss The condition or factor of. It is the potential cause of risk and the internal or Indirect causes 。

II Risk event : refers to those causing losses Incidents 。 It is the external or direct cause of the loss. Such as fire, lightning, earthquake and other events. Here, attention should be paid to distinguishing risk events from risk factors. For example, the brake failure of a car causes casualties in an accident. Here, the brake failure is a risk factor and the accident is a risk event.

3、 Loss: refers to unintentional, unplanned and unexpected economic value Reduction of, usually with Monetary unit To measure.

IV risk management Risk management is to identify, determine and measure risks, and develop, select and implement them Risk treatment The process of the scheme.

5、 Risk management process: including Risk identification 、 risk evaluation Risk countermeasures, decision-making, implementation decision-making and inspection.

6、 The goal of risk management: before the occurrence of a risk event, its primary goal is to minimize the potential loss, followed by reducing the value of worries and corresponding worries, and after the occurrence of a risk event, its primary goal is to make Actual loss Reduce to a minimum.

Components

(I) risk factor

Risk factors are factors that promote a specific Risk accident The reason or condition that causes or increases the possibility of its occurrence or the extent of its loss. It is the potential cause of risk accidents and the internal or Indirect causes 。 For example, for buildings, risk factors refer to the quality of building materials used building structure Stability, etc; For people, it refers to health status, age, etc.

Risk factors can be divided into tangible risk factors and Intangible risk factors Two types.

1. Physical risk factors. Tangible risk factors, also known as material risk factors, refer to the factors that are sufficient to cause risk accidents or increase loss opportunities or increase the degree of loss of an object. Such as a person's physical condition; The location of a building geographical position The nature of the building materials used and other abnormal changes in the crust, harsh climate, disease infection are all substantial risk factors. Some of these risk factors can be controlled to a certain extent, while others are still powerless for a certain period of time. stay Insurance Practice The loss risk caused by material risk factors is mostly Insurance coverage 。

2. Intangible risk factors. Intangible risk Factors are risk factors related to people's psychology or behavior, usually including Moral hazard factors and Psychological risk factors 。

Among them, moral hazard factors refer to intangible factors related to people's moral cultivation, that is, because people are dishonest, dishonest or have improper attempts to deliberately promote the occurrence of risk accidents, resulting in property loss and Personal injury factor. For example, fraud and arson of the applicant or the insured are moral hazard factors. stay insurance In the insurance policy, the insurer's response to the economic risks caused by the moral hazard factors of the applicant or the insured loss , shall not be liable for compensation or payment. Psychological risk factors are related to people mentality Relevant intangible factors, that is, due to people's negligence or negligence and subjectively Inattention . Those who do not care and are lucky enough to increase the chance of risk accidents and increase losses seriousness Factors. For example, enterprise or individual insurance property insurance After that, there was relaxation on finance security management The mentality or behavior, such as the disorderly stacking of goods and the random discarding of cigarette butts after smoking, are all psychological risk factors. Because moral risk factors and psychological risk factors are closely related to people, the combination of these two types of risk factors is called human risk factors.

(II) Risk accident

Risk accident (also known as risk event) refers to an accidental event that causes personal injury or property loss, is the direct or external cause of loss, and is the medium of loss, that is, risk can only lead to loss through the occurrence of risk accident.

For an event, if it is the direct cause of loss, it is a risk accident; Under other conditions, if it causes losses Indirect causes , it becomes risk factor 。

For example: 1. Hail is a risk factor when a car accident occurs due to road skidding, causing casualties. 2. Hail directly injures pedestrians, which is a risk accident.

(III) loss

In risk management, loss refers to the unintentional, unexpected and unplanned reduction of economic value.

Generally, we divide losses into two forms, namely Direct loss and indirect losses 。 Direct loss refers to Risk accident The resulting property loss and personal injury are also called Material loss ； Indirect losses refer to other losses caused by direct losses, including additional costs Loss, loss of income and loss of liability. In risk management, losses are generally divided into four categories: material loss, additional expense loss, income loss and liability loss.

Relationship between elements

Risk is caused by risk factor 、 Risk accident And loss, and their relationship is:

Risk factors refer to the chance or expansion of causing or increasing risk accidents Loss range Is the potential cause of risk accidents;

Risk accident is an accidental event that causes loss of life and property, a direct or external cause of loss, and a medium of loss;

Loss refers to unintentional, unexpected and unplanned reduction of economic value.

The above three relationships are: risk is a unity of risk factors, risk accidents and losses, and risk factors cause or increase risk accidents; Risk accidents may cause losses.

Frequency and degree

Risk frequency: also called Loss frequency Refers to the number of accidents that occur in a certain number of objects within a certain time.

Risk degree: also called Degree of loss Refers to the damage of the subject matter caused by every accident, that is, the damaged value accounts for the total value of the damaged subject matter percentage 。

◇ The relationship between the two in real life is: generally inverse ratio

The risk frequency is high, but the risk degree is not high;

The risk frequency is not high, but the risk degree is very high.

definition

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There is no unified definition of the connotation of risk in academia. Due to different understanding and understanding of risk, or different perspectives on risk research, different scholars have different interpretations of the concept of risk, but can be summarized as follows Representativeness Views.

I Risk is the uncertainty of the possible future outcome of an event

A. H. Mowbray (1995) called risk uncertainty; C. A. Williams (1985) defined risk as the change of future results under given conditions and in a specific period; March&Shapira believes that risk is the uncertainty of the possible outcome of things, which can be measured by the variance of income distribution; Brnmiley believes that risk is the uncertainty of the company's income stream; Markowitz and Sharp define the risk of securities investment as the security assets The possibilities of Yield The variance of return rate is used to measure the risk of securities investment. The concept of quantifying risk has changed the investors' understanding of risk. Because of the convenience of variance calculation, this definition of risk has been widely used in practice.

II Risk is the uncertainty of loss

J. S. Rosenb "(1972) defined risk as the uncertainty of loss. F. G. Crane (1984) believed that risk is more likely to mean the uncertainty of future loss, and Biokett, Charnes, Cooper&probability described it (Wang Mingtao, 2003). Ruefli et al defined risk as an opportunity for adverse events or event sets to occur. In this view, it can be divided into subjective theory and objective theory. The subjective theory believes that uncertainty is a subjective, personal and psychological concept, which is the individual's objective things The scope of uncertainty includes the uncertainty of occurrence or not, the uncertainty of occurrence time, the uncertainty of occurrence status and the uncertainty of the severity of occurrence results. The objective theory is based on risk objective existence On the premise that Risk accident Based on observation and defined from mathematical and statistical perspectives, it is believed that risk can be measured by objective measures. For example, Pefel defines risk as measurable Objective probability Size of; F. H. Knight believes that risk is measurable uncertainty.

III Risk refers to Possible The degree of damage lost

Duan Kailing It is believed that risk can be defined as Expected loss The negative deviation here refers to the negative deviation insurance company Or the insured enterprise. For example, if the actual Loss rate Is greater than the expected loss rate, then this Positive deviation For insurance companies, it is an adverse deviation, that is, the risks faced by insurance companies (Hu Yida et al., 2001). Markowitz ruled out the possibility on the basis of others' doubts Yield higher than Expected rate of return The concept of downside risk is proposed, that is, the realized yield is lower than Expected rate of return And use the semi variance to measure the lower risk (Zhou Gang et al. 1999).

IV Risk refers to the size and possibility of loss

Zhu Shuzhen (2002), on the basis of summarizing various risk descriptions, defined risk as: risk refers to the uncertainty of various results under certain conditions and within a certain period of time Actor suffer loss And the loss Likelihood Risk is a binary concept. Risk is measured by the size of loss and the probability of loss. Wang Mingtao (2003) defined risk as: the so-called risk refers to the decision-making process In, due to the role of various uncertainties, the possibility of adverse results and the degree of possible losses of the decision-making scheme within a certain period of time. It includes the probability of loss, the number of possible losses and Variability Among the three aspects, the degree of possible loss is the most important.

V Risk is the result of the interaction of risk components

risk factor 、 Risk event And risk results are the basic elements of risk, and risk factors are formed by risk necessary condition Is the premise of risk generation and existence. Risk event is external environment variable Risk exists in the event of unexpected changes leading to risk results sufficient condition , occupying the core position in the whole risk. Risk event is the bridge connecting risk factors and risk results. It is the transformation of risk from, possibility to realism Media. According to the risk formation mechanism, Guo Xiaoting Pu Yongjian (2002) et al. defined risk as: within a certain period of time, the corresponding risk factors are necessary Risk event As a sufficient condition, the possibility of the relevant actors to bear the corresponding risk results. Ye Qing Yi Danhui (2000) believed that the connotation of risk lies in that it has risk factor 、 Risk accident The possibility presented by progressive connection with risk results.

6、 Definition using standard statistical measurement methods for fluctuations risk

In the Report on the Practice and Principles of Derivative Securities issued by the Group of 30 in 1993 Position Or combined market risk It is defined as: after a certain time interval Maximum possible loss , and named this method Value at Risk, or VaR method for short, and strongly recommended that banks in various countries use this method; 1996 Bank for International Settlements On《 Basel Accord The Amendment has also allowed national banks to use their own internal risk valuation models to establish Capital fund ； P. 1997 Jorion is studying financial risk When using the "normal market environment Given a certain time interval and Confidence Level, the expected maximum loss (or the worst case loss) "is also referred to as VaR method (P. Jorion, 1997).

7、 Utilizing uncertainty Randomness Characteristics risk

The uncertainty of risk includes fuzziness and randomness. The uncertainty of fuzziness mainly depends on the inherent risk vague Attribute, to apply fuzzy mathematics To describe and study; The uncertainty of randomness is mainly due to the inevitable reflection caused by the external multifactorial nature of risk (i.e. the influence of various random factors), which should be characterized and studied by the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics.

According to the randomness of uncertainty Risk unit Relative risk, Hu Yida Shen Houcai And so on Risk degree The concept of objective condition At a specific time, Actual loss Between Mean square error And predicted losses Mathematical expectation Ratio. It means Risk loss Relative of Variation degree (i.e. unpredictability) Dimensionless (or with percentage Represents the quantity of).

classification

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By nature

one Pure risk : Pure risk refers to only losing opportunities without reap profit Possible risks. Such as houses owner The fire risk and collision risk faced by the car owners will suffer the loss of economic benefits when a fire collision accident occurs.

two Speculative risk Speculative risk is relative to pure risk, which refers to the risk of both loss opportunities and profit possibilities. There are generally three consequences of speculative risk: first, no loss; Second, there are loss ； The third is profitability. For example, in stock market When buying and selling stocks, there are three consequences: making money, losing money, and no loss, so it belongs to speculative risk.

According to the subject

one Property risk : Property risk means everything Tangible property Damage, loss or depreciation The risk of financial or monetary loss. Such as factory buildings machinery equipment Finished products and furniture will be exposed to fire, earthquake, explosion and other risks; The ship may suffer from sinking, collision, grounding and other risks during navigation.

Property loss usually includes direct loss and indirect loss of property.

two Personal risk : Personal risk refers to disability, death Incapacity And increase medical expense The risk of expenditure. For example, people may die prematurely, become disabled, lose working ability or become old and helpless due to physiological laws such as birth, aging, disease and death, and natural, political and military reasons.

There are generally two kinds of losses caused by personal risk: one is loss of income capacity; One is the loss of additional expenses.

three Liability risk : Liability risk refers to the risk caused by the negligence or Negligent act , causing property loss or personal injury or death of others, which should be borne according to law, contract or morality civil legal obligation Risk.

four credit risks Credit risk refers to the risk of economic loss to the other party due to the default or violation of the law between the obligee and the obligor in economic exchanges. as Import and export trade The exporter (or importer) will suffer economic losses due to the importer (or exporter)'s non performance.

According to behavior

one Specific risks : With specific people causal relationship The risk is caused by a specific person, and the loss only involves a specific person. Such as fire, explosion, theft, property loss or personal injury to others legal responsibility All belong to this category.

two Basic risk : The risk of social damage. The causes and effects of basic risks are not related to specific people, at least risks that individuals cannot prevent. Social or political risks, and natural disaster Relevant risks are all basic risks. Such as earthquake, flood, tsunami, economic recession, etc.

According to the production environment

one Static risk : Static risk refers to the risk caused by natural force Of people Negligent act Risk of loss or damage. Such as lightning, earthquake Frost damage , storm and other natural causes; Fire blast 、 Accidental injury accident Loss or damage caused by.

two Dynamic risk : Dynamic risk refers to the risk of loss or damage caused by changes in socio-economic, political, technical and organizational aspects. Such as population growth, capital increase Production technology Improvements, changes in consumer preferences, etc.

According to the cause

one Natural risk : Natural risk refers to the irregular change of natural forces Social production and civil life Risk of being threatened. Such as earthquake Windstorm , fire and various plague Such natural phenomena are frequent and occur in large quantities. Among various risks, Natural risk is the risk that the insurer covers most.

Natural risks are characterized by:

(1) Uncontrollability of natural risk formation

(2) Natural risk Periodicity

(3) The commonality of consequences caused by natural risk accidents means that once a natural risk accident occurs, it often involves a wide range of objects.

two social risk : Social risk refers to the behavior of individuals or groups (including negligent behavior, improper behavior and Intentional act ）Or Inaction Risk of loss to social production and people's life. Such as theft, robbery be forgetful of one's duties And intentional destruction may cause property loss or personal injury to others.

three Political risks （ country risk ）: Political risk refers to political reasons or reasons beyond the control of both parties in the process of foreign investment and trade; send creditor Risk of loss. If the import of goods is suspended due to war or civil unrest in the importing country; Because the importing country implements import or Exchange control wait.

four economic risks : Economic risk refers to the risk caused by various Market supply and demand , Economy Terms of trade The impact of changes in other factors or operator Decision making error , deviation from prospect expectation, etc cause Business failure Risk. For example, the increase and decrease of enterprise production scale, price fluctuation and operation Profit and loss Etc.

five Technical risk : Technology risk refers to the development of science and technology Production mode The risk of threatening people's production and life caused by the change of. as nuclear radiation 、 air pollution And noise, etc.

nature

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1、 objectivity 2、 chance 3. Harmfulness 4. Uncertainty 5 Relativity (or variability) 6 universality 7、 Social

chance

Due to the asymmetry of information, the future Risk event It is difficult to predict whether it will happen or not.

Relativity

The nature of risk will change due to various factors in time and space.

Social

Consequences of risk and human society Of relevance It determines the sociality of risk and has great social impact.

objectivity

Risk is an objective existence independent of human consciousness and not transferred by human will. Because whether it's natural Material movement , or social development The laws of objective law Determined.

Uncertainty

The uncertainty of the time of occurrence. On the whole, some risks are inevitable, but when they occur is uncertain. For example, in life risk, death is inevitable, which is life's Inevitable phenomenon However, when a person dies, it is impossible to determine when he is healthy.

Ways to reduce

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1. Diversified choice

Diversification refers to a risky economic activity Diversified actions can be taken to reduce risks.

two Risk diversification

Investors eliminate risk by investing in many projects or holding shares in many companies. This is held in various forms assets Can be avoided to some extent Single asset In this way, investors' return on investment will be more certain.

three Risk transfer (Insurance)

When consumers face risks, Risk evaders They will be willing to give up part of their income to buy insurance. If the price of insurance is exactly equal to Expected loss ， Risk averse Sufficient insurance will be purchased to make them fully compensated from any possible loss, and it is determined that the effect of income on them is higher than that of undamaged loss high-income The utility brought by the instability of low income when there is loss. In addition, consumers can carry out self insurance assets Diversified portfolio, such as purchasing common Mutual fund ; The second is to deposit funds in certain funds to offset future losses or lower income.

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