Balance of payments surplus

The difference between the country's total foreign economic income and its total expenditure

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synonym surplus (Surplus) generally refers to the balance of payments surplus

Balance of payments The surplus is also called "balance of payments surplus". During a certain period (usually one year), foreign economic exchanges between countries Total revenue The difference greater than the total expenditure is the surplus. It is generally marked with "+".

Chinese name: Balance of payments surplus
Foreign name: International Payment Surplus
Applicable fields: international , Country accounting , Economy

Discipline: political science 、 accounting 、 economics
Alias: Balance of payments surplus
Abbreviation: surplus
Symmetry: Balance of payments deficit

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significance

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Promote economic growth

first, current account Surplus stimulus economic growth 。

First, current account surplus stimulates domestic Aggregate demand And promote economic growth. The current account surplus mainly comes from Net exports The increase of is the result of the rapid increase of China's foreign trade, especially exports. The increase in net exports has expanded the domestic aggregate demand, which has promoted the growth of the national economy.

Second, net export multiplier effect It has expanded the scale of economic growth. The current account surplus is mainly the result of the increase in net exports.

The increase in net exports has Foreign trade multiplier Effect: under the effect of foreign trade multiplier, the scale of economic growth is several times larger than Net exports , greater than the favorable balance of current account. secondly, capital account The surplus directly promotes economic growth.

First, the capital account surplus directly increases the total demand and promotes economic growth. The capital account surplus is due to the increase of net capital inflows, most of which are from foreign investors direct investment Increased results. Net capital inflow increased Investment demand The increase of investment demand directly promotes the growth of national economy.

Balance of payments surplus

Second foreign direct investment Of multiplier effect It has expanded the scale of economic growth. Direct foreign investment Investment multiplier The scale of economic growth is several times Foreign direct investment , greater than the capital account surplus.

Increase foreign exchange reserves

2. The balance of payments surplus has increased foreign exchange reserves comprehensive national strength , which is conducive to maintaining international reputation and improving external relations Financing capacity And the ability to introduce foreign capital.

Since 1994, except for 1998 Asian financial crisis Impact capital account yes Deficit In addition, China has always maintained a favorable balance of international payments. With the increase of the balance of payments surplus, foreign exchange reserve It is also growing rapidly, with foreign exchange reserves exceeding 401 billion US dollars by the end of 2003.

Favorable aspects of the increase of foreign exchange reserves:

First, it has improved the comprehensive national strength and made our country economic globalization China is in a more favorable position.

Second, it shows that China has a good international Solvency When financing in the international market, it is easier to obtain various loans at a lower cost.

The third is to carry out direct investment Foreign businessmen who remit their profits back to their home countries sense of security These foreign businessmen are willing to inject more capital, which is conducive to China's introduction of foreign capital.

benefit balance between aggregate demand and supply

3. The balance of payments surplus is conducive to the balance of economic aggregate.

stay open economy Under conditions, Economic aggregate Balance is not only related to savings and investment, but also to foreign trade. When finance has deficit When savings are fully converted into investment, it needs to be compensated by increasing imports financial deficits To maintain the economic aggregate balance between supply and demand In that way, it is easy to have financial deficits and Foreign trade deficit Coexisting Double deficit Phenomenon. When there is a deficit in finance, it is necessary to reduce imports or increase exports (i.e. increase Net exports ）To make up for the fiscal deficit and ensure the balance between supply and demand of the total economic output. The reality of our country is that savings have not been completely transformed into investment. Since 1998, positive measures have been taken every year fiscal policy The fiscal deficit is increasing year by year, so the increase in the balance of payments surplus, especially the increase in net exports, partially offset the fiscal deficit. Make up with balance of payments surplus financial deficits , which not only helps to balance the total amount of the national economy, but also avoids Double deficit Phenomenon.

Helping the country economic security

4. The balance of payments surplus has strengthened China's resistance economic globalization The ability to take risks helps National economic security 。

The successive years of international balance of payments surplus has increased China's foreign exchange reserves, making China an international Creditor country 。 Therefore, China not only has enough foreign exchange to meet Foreign economic relations and trade And has increased China's foreign trade Solvency Ensuring external payment is also conducive to coping International financial risks , increased the resistance of the country to various economic risks Ability.

Beneficial to macro-control

5. The favorable balance of payments RMB rate Stable and loosely implemented Macro control policies 。

First, the balance of payments surplus enables the country to have sufficient foreign exchange Intervention in the foreign exchange market And keep the RMB exchange rate stable.

Second, the country has sufficient foreign exchange Adjust balance of payments And implement proactive foreign economic and trade policies.

Third, the balance of payments surplus has increased Active fiscal policy The effect of. Since local governments at all levels in China have made great efforts to attract investment Capital liquidity In fact, it is relatively large. In the case of relatively high capital liquidity, the balance of payments surplus has strengthened the effect of positive fiscal policies to stimulate total demand, and promoted the rapid development of the national economy. Fourth, the balance of payments surplus is conducive to the country's implementation of easing monetary policy 。

Encyclopedia x ignorance: illustration of balance of payments surplus

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Increase international trade friction

1. The balance of payments surplus makes RMB appreciation The pressure on international trade has increased.

The balance of payments surplus makes the supply of foreign currency in the domestic foreign exchange market greater than the demand for foreign currency, which inevitably leads to the expectation of foreign currency depreciation and RMB appreciation. Therefore, the balance of payments surplus generates the pressure of RMB appreciation: the larger the balance of payments surplus, the greater the pressure of RMB appreciation; The expectation of RMB appreciation has increased the inflow of foreign capital and the expansion of the balance of payments surplus, further increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation.

The balance of payments surplus has aggravated international trade friction. our country balance of trade surplus Increase means that the countries that trade with China are Deficit The deficit country will use the rules of WTO to restrict the import of our products and protect its own industry. After joining WTO, China and the United States trade deficit It is relatively large. The United States is the largest user of anti-dumping, and China is the most anti-dumping country, ranking first among WTO members, and China has been anti-dumping case The number of is increasing year by year.

reduce social resources Utilization

Balance of payments surplus

2. The balance of payments surplus has weakened Monetary policy effect , reducing the utilization efficiency of social resources.

Foreign exchange inflows increased with the increase of the balance of payments surplus fixed rate and Foreign exchange settlement and sales Under the system, the central bank should purchase foreign exchange with RMB, and the money supply will increase with the increase of foreign exchange inflows. With a large amount of RMB passively invested in Circulation field , Central Bank Base currency The account is more subject to the inflow of foreign exchange, which not only weakens the central bank monetary policy The effect of price level rise.

The combination of the balance of payments surplus and domestic residents' savings leads to inefficient utilization of social resources. A large amount of surplus in international payments foreign exchange reserve At the same time, the savings of domestic residents reached 11 trillion yuan, which adds up to more than 14 trillion yuan. The 14 trillion yuan has not been formed Effective investment Is the idle funds in the economic society, which corresponds to Means of production And idle human resources, and inefficient use of social resources. Therefore, the coexistence of economic growth and unemployment has emerged in China.

increase Capital outflow

3. The balance of payments surplus has increased foreign exchange reserve Cost increases capital outflow.

stay international financial market There are always risks in foreign exchange operations on the exchange-rate risks 。 Our country implements pegging dollar Of fixed rate (China's exchange rate system On July 21, 2005, it was changed to "based on market supply and demand Adjust with reference to a basket of currencies 、 Managed floating exchange rate system ”）, whenever Depreciation of the dollar And in the United States inflation China's foreign exchange reserves have depreciated, resulting in the loss of foreign exchange reserves. The larger the balance of payments surplus, the more foreign exchange needed to operate in the international financial market, and the higher the cost of national foreign exchange reserves.

The balance of payments surplus has increased Capital outflow 。 stay Foreign exchange settlement and sales system Next, since the inflow of foreign funds must be converted into foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves mainly consist of US dollars euro Bonds. The more the balance of payments surplus, the more foreign exchange reserves, Foreign bonds The more, the more capital flows out. These two aspects form an internal contradiction: the balance of payments surplus guides the inflow of foreign capital, the more exports, and foreign direct investment The more, the more capital flows; Balance of payments surplus foreign exchange reserve The more foreign exchange reserves, the more capital outflows.

Difficulty in adjusting export structure

4. Balance of payments surplus leads to heterogeneous economy External dependence It is too high, the development space of national economy is narrow, and the export structure is difficult to adjust.

Both export and foreign investment have costs:

First, exports make domestic resources used abroad, and exports international market dependence Strong, the quantity and structure of exports change with the demand of the international market;

Second, foreign investment Indirect financing still Direct financing There is a price. Indirect financing, such as foreign loans that need to be repaid with foreign exchange when they are due, requires more domestic export products in exchange for foreign exchange. Direct financing, such as multinational companies in China direct investment To set up production and sales enterprises is to directly use all kinds of resources in our country. Not only will its profits be remitted back to the location of the parent company, but also its products have occupied the market in our country.

Third, the domestic economy is constrained by the international market. Once exports are frustrated and the domestic economy is depressed, foreign capital will take advantage of the weakness to control our market and Economic lifeline The economic development of China's industries is restricted by foreign capital, which leads to the lack of autonomy in economic development.

The balance of payments surplus has squeezed the market space for national economic development. First, on domestic market On the other hand, a large number of foreign-funded enterprises set up factories in China to produce their products. Their products can quickly enter the Chinese market, or they can bypass Import tariff and Non-tariff barrier , and make use of our country Cheap labor Benefits. foreign direct investment Not only High tech industry , and more and more Traditional industries , directly compete with Chinese enterprises for the domestic market.^[4]

Secondly, the increase of foreign direct investment has squeezed the market of export products of ethnic enterprises. The balance of payments surplus has increased, especially capital account There are too many surpluses. In fact, foreign capital domestic investment Increase. With the increase of capital account surplus, the share of foreign capital in China's export market increases accordingly, and foreign-funded enterprises dominate in exports. In 2003, more than 50% of foreign-funded enterprises' products were exported. Therefore, the balance of payments surplus reduces the space of national enterprises in the domestic market and export market, objectively hinders the improvement of the international market competitiveness of national enterprises, and affects the development of national economy.

Thirdly, foreign-funded enterprises play a leading role in exports, and the government exports Structural adjustment policy It is difficult to play an effective role, which not only makes it difficult to adjust the domestic export structure, but also further affects the domestic economic structure Adjustment of.

Affect the marketization process

5. The balance of payments surplus has affected the domestic financial industry Interest rate marketization Process.

Under the condition of interest rate marketization, the balance of payments surplus means domestic money supply Increased demand for money in the market Growth rate When less than the growth rate of money supply, money Market supply The interest rate in the financial market fell when it exceeded demand. When the international market interest rate is relatively low, the interest rate in a country's financial market will decline Interest margin Will shrink, and the reduction of this interest margin will slow down international capital The inflow of is conducive to reducing the balance of payments surplus. However, lower interest rates will lead to RMB depreciation , generated inflation 。 Since the second half of 2003, China's economy has been facing the pressure of inflation. In order to prevent the negative impact of inflation on the economy, the central bank has to maintain the current deposit control interest rate and loan floating interest rate, thus delaying the process of interest rate marketization.

Main impacts

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The balance of payments surplus affects both the domestic economy and the foreign economy. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust economic policies, coordinate domestic and foreign economic development, and turn the disadvantages of the balance of payments surplus into advantages.

Balance of payments surplus is China's long-term implementation of export-oriented economy development strategy Results. stay open economy In order to solve the problem of balance of payments surplus, we need to shift the thinking of economic development from export-oriented development strategy to export and domestic market demand Equal emphasis on economic development strategy; The new orientation of economic policy is: from balance of payments surplus to maintenance current account Moderate surplus capital account Gradually reach balance.

An appropriate current account surplus is conducive to maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate and promoting economic development. International trade occurs when RMB is not an international currency deficit We cannot offset the international trade deficit by printing more RMB. Therefore, in the Balance of payments yes Deficit 、 foreign exchange reserve When it is insufficient, China Association The lack of sufficient foreign exchange to purchase imported products and pay foreign debts that are due affects the country's reputation and economic development. Therefore, the current account has a surplus, which is beneficial to China's foreign exchange market and RMB rate Stabilizing and strengthening the international Ability to pay And promote economic development. The capital account is gradually balanced, which is conducive to expanding domestic demand and appropriately reducing national economy External dependence 。

Adverse performance

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The balance of payments surplus generated by trade items reflects a country's international reserve Or the enhancement of external payment capability; The balance of payments surplus generated by the capital account reflects a large inflow of capital.

The huge surplus in the balance of payments also has adverse economic effects, mainly as follows:

1. Excessive foreign exchange reserves will cause Idle funds Waste is not conducive to the economic development of the country;

two reserve currency When the exchange rate falls, foreign exchange reserves will suffer losses;

3. A country's foreign exchange reserves increase, Home Currency The issuance is bound to increase accordingly, resulting in potential inflationary pressure;

4. If the default currency is Convertible currency , surplus will make the foreign exchange market Local currency Demand exceeds supply and is vulnerable to panic buying;

5. The domestic currency is forced to appreciate, which puts exports at a disadvantage competitive position 。^[1]

strategy

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Implement export and domestic market demand Coequal Economic development strategy According to the report of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Increase employment 、 stabilize prices , Keep Balance of international payments As the main objective of macro-control Macroeconomic regulation Four major goals of economic policy We will gradually reduce the balance of payments surplus and coordinate the development of the foreign economy and the domestic economy.

Economic growth promotes employment

1. The implementation of the economic development strategy focusing on both export and domestic demand needs to be improved investment policy , widening Investment channels Improve the efficiency of capital utilization and promote employment with economic growth. Due to domestic Fund use efficiency Low, economic growth is difficult to drive employment growth, unemployment rate It is rising year by year. Efforts will be made to expand investment channels and improve the mechanism for converting savings into investment, making full use of more than 14 trillion yuan Resident savings and foreign exchange reserve , then, with the same technical level resource utilization With the same efficiency, even if it does not depend on Introduce foreign capital , China Economic growth rate It can also be greatly improved, and employment opportunities will increase accordingly.

perfect Foreign exchange settlement and sales system

2. Keep current account To moderate the surplus, we must adjust the import and export structure, increase the opening of current account, and improve the system of foreign exchange settlement and sales. To adjust the structure of imports and exports, we should pay attention to exports and at the same time consider increasing imports appropriately. To increase imports, we should pay attention to optimizing the import structure. The government should encourage enterprises to introduce applicable technology and equipment, and increase technological transformation and Industrial upgrading ； Increase oil and mineral resources Strategic materials Import; By expanding infrastructure construction Development education And tourism and consumption growth drive imports.

A large number of surpluses provide a good basis for opening up the current account. Relax the current account for enterprises and individuals exchange control Increase the number of foreign exchange sales, which can not only better meet the needs of enterprises and individuals to use foreign exchange and promote Foreign economic relations and trade , and is conducive to regulation foreign exchange reserve 。 At the same time, due to capital account It has not yet been liberalized. In order to prevent capital account from remitting from current account, the government needs to standardize the management of current account, mainly the authenticity review.

perfect Foreign exchange settlement and sales system , promotion intention Settlement and sales of foreign exchange , increase opening Foreign exchange account And let more enterprises transfer from compulsory foreign exchange settlement to Willing to settle foreign exchange In this way, enterprises will reduce Foreign exchange trading , can save time, cost reduction 。

perfect Exchange rate mechanism

three capital account To gradually achieve balance, we must improve the exchange rate mechanism and promote Interest rate marketization Reform, control the entry of foreign capital and increase foreign investment. implement floating rate , favorable performance:

First, it is conducive to giving full play to foreign exchange market price mechanism effect.

Second, it is beneficial to RMB Become early international currency 。

Third, exchange rate sensitive sectors benefit, which helps enterprises control exports Product cost And prevent prices from rising.

Fourth, promote financial market , especially those related to foreign exchange Financial derivatives Market development.

Five is Enterprise financing Will gradually change from banking to turn to capital market Enterprise financing relies more on the capital market to achieve financing diversification.

Six is beneficial monetary policy Give full play to its role.

In the process of interest rate marketization, domestic economy and foreign economy should be taken into account economic development , establish a market adaptive interest rate - Exchange rate mechanism 。 stay fixed foreign exchange system Lower coordination Interest margin , often subject to developed country The balance of payments surplus is domestic money supply Increase, central bank The interest rate should be lowered, but international financial market High interest rate or inflation Under pressure, the nominal interest margin between domestic interest rate and external interest rate or Effective interest rate The interest margin of is too large, and lowering the interest rate will lead to Capital outflow Therefore, the interest rate cannot be adjusted easily. And in Floating exchange rate system Next, can give full play to Monetary policy effect , strengthening monetary policy Autonomy 。 Therefore, Interest rate marketization Exchange rate required Institutional reform That is, interest rate marketization and floating exchange rate should be carried out simultaneously in order to establish an interest rate exchange rate mechanism that can adapt to changes in the international economy and domestic economy.

realization capital account To gradually achieve balance, it is necessary to control the entry of foreign capital and increase foreign investment.

First, we should control the speed of foreign capital entry and adjust the structure of foreign capital.

Second, the introduction of foreign capital needs to change from quantitative to qualitative. To introduce foreign capital, we should pay attention to quality, high-tech enterprises, foreign enterprises that are conducive to extending the industrial chain, and promote industrial upgrading and upgrading Ethnic enterprises Design, research and development capabilities.

Third, we should control the fields and speed of foreign capital entry, reduce capital account surplus national economy Set aside for survival and development Market space Through the development of national economy, China can economic globalization It stands on its own in the world's national economy.

Fourth, increase foreign direct investment. To reduce the surplus of capital account, we should not simply restrict the entry of foreign capital, but also Increase capital The outflow of. Increasing foreign direct investment is conducive to reducing capital account The surplus is more conducive for enterprises to surpass the tariff and Non-tariff barrier ， Develop international market And make full use of international resources.

standard Import and export trade

4. Strengthen the construction of micro economic regulation and policy system related to WTO rules, and standardize import and export trade. Applying WTO rules to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages needs to focus on export and domestic market demand Equal emphasis on economic development strategy to realize national products national industry Modernization. To make use of WTO, we should insist on national economy Political and maintenance domestic industry Interest policy Coping strategies Three principles of. At the same time Three requirements First, we should be legal and act in accordance with WTO rules; The second is to use the rules reasonably and scientifically; Third, we should be effective and pay attention to the actual effect of handling affairs according to rules.

Expansionary monetary policy

5. Positive fiscal policy And robust monetary policy And gradually shift to moderately tight fiscal policies and Expansionary monetary policy 。

Moderately tight fiscal policy:

First, unify domestic and foreign enterprises Tax , cancelled for foreign-funded enterprises Super national treatment To create fair competition opportunities for national enterprises and increase through national economic development Tax source 。

Second, expand the scope of tax cuts to stimulate Total social demand 。

Third, timely promotion Tax reform , reduce the actual burden of enterprises and promote Enterprise development And expand employment.

Fourth, increase transfer payment , mainly Social security expenditure , maintain or improve disadvantaged Of living standard And help stabilize society and increase consumption.

Fifth, increase finance Secured loans or Financial discount loan , via Financial guarantee or Discount loan support Export enterprises and labor intensive enterprise And the development of small and medium-sized enterprises to increase supply and alleviate structural unemployment Contradictions, etc.

Expansibility monetary policy ：

First, reduce Legal deposit reserve ratio 。

The second is to cooperate with the fiscal bond policy Open market business On the one hand, the central bank bought government bonds and expanded Money supply 。

Third bank loans We should favor export and labor-intensive enterprises, encourage exports, expand production of export enterprises, and increase employment opportunities.

Fourth, increase consumption credit And promote industries with growth potential to quickly turn potential demand into real demand.

Fifth, moderately tight fiscal policy Combined with the expansionary monetary policy, it is conducive to activating the capital market money market 、 insurance market and Trust market Through the opening of financial markets and the development of investment channels, more savings will be converted into investment to promote economic development.

Related reports

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In 2014, China Current account of balance of payments The surplus was 1314.8 billion yuan, Capital and financial items The deficit is 593.9 billion yuan, International reserve assets An increase of 720.9 billion yuan.

In dollar terms, in 2014, China's current account surplus in the balance of payments was $213.8 billion, including a trade surplus in goods of $471.9 billion, a trade deficit in services of $198.1 billion, and a revenue deficit of $29.8 billion, Frequent transfer The deficit is US $30.2 billion. The deficit in capital and financial items was US $96 billion, of which the net inflow of direct investment was US $19.5 billion. International reserve assets increased by US $117.8 billion, of which foreign exchange reserve assets increased by US $118.8 billion, special drawing rights And on IMF Of Reserve position A decrease of $1.1 billion.^[2]

On February 18, 2024, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the preliminary figures of China's balance of payments for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the whole year. Data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, China's current account surplus will be 398.3 billion yuan, including 1108.8 billion yuan in trade surplus in goods, 440.2 billion yuan in trade deficit in services, 301.9 billion yuan in primary income deficit, and 31.6 billion yuan in secondary income surplus. In capital and financial accounts, reserve assets increased by 87.4 billion yuan.^[3]

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