After risk identification, the single risk of the project is determined through full, systematic and orderly consideration of all uncertainties and risk elements of the project
The project risk assessment is to determine the single risk of the project through the full, systematic and orderly consideration of all uncertainties and risk elements of the project after the risk identification.Then, the project risk is comprehensively evaluated.It is based on the planning, identification and estimation of project risks, through the establishment of a risk system model, to find the key risks of the project, determine the overall risk level of the project, and provide a scientific basis for how to deal with these risks to ensure the smooth progress of the project.
The basis of risk assessment is to first estimate the following contents: the possibility of risk events;Possible result range and hazard degree;Expected time of occurrence;The frequency of risk events generated by a risk factor.Common methods and tools include: risk possibility and hazard analysis level matrix, project assumptions testing, and data precision ranking.[1]
(1) Risk possibility and hazard analysis level matrix.The size of risk is determined by two aspects, one is the possibility of risk occurrence, the other is the degree of harm caused to the project objectives after the risk occurs. For these two aspects, some qualitative descriptors can be used to describe them respectively, such as "very high", "high", "moderate", "low" and "very low".
(2) Project assumption test.The project assumption test in risk assessment is a simulation technology, which tests a series of assumptions and their inferences respectively, and then discovers some qualitative information of risk.
(3) Data precision classification.Risk estimation requires accurate and unbiased data that is beneficial to management. Data precision grading is a technology applied in this field, which can estimate the degree of usefulness of risk related data for risk management.It includes the following aspects: the scope of risk understanding;Data on risks;Data quality;The credibility and authenticity of the data.
The essence of project management is planning, forecasting, budgeting and estimation, which shows that there are few definite factors in the project.Therefore, all aspects of the project need to be considered to determine the uncertainty of the project.However, this is very impractical, because the cost and time required for assessment are limited, so it is generally necessary to ensure that the objects of risk assessment must be those that are subject to the most serious constraints and uncertainties in the project.In addition, it needs to be emphasized that the assessment process is actually iterative, and the risk assessment can be completed only when the evaluator and the project manager think that all the risks not found are insignificant.The assessment process allows stakeholders to define risk types.It can be based on probability and influence, or safety measures and risks.Impact refers to the severity of the impact on budget, project completion schedule, work quality or project safety.Whether the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact are high or low is the concern of risk assessors and project managers.
Basic steps
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It is difficult to get rid of subjectivity in everything, but practice and experience can improve the ability of project managers to predict the probability and impact of risks.The usual risk assessment process consists of the following six basic steps.[1]
(1) Evaluate all methods.All different methods should be considered, and all factors affecting risk must be considered.BrainstormingOr other risk identification methods should be used thoroughly, and all factors that may affect the occurrence of risks should be taken into account.
(2) Consider risk attitude.The risk attitude of decision makers needs to be taken into account.Different people will use different attitudes to estimate risks, and use the same data to make different decisions.Some decision-makers, compared with other decision-makers, are more or less risk averse and will make different subjective assessments of the occurrence and impact of risks according to the given data.
(3) Consider the characteristics of risk.Whether risks have been identified, whether they are controllable, and what their impact will be, all these need to be considered.It is possible to control risks that have been identified (e.g., internally controllable) rather than other risks (e.g., externally uncontrollable).All possible risk characteristics need to be identified.
(4) Establish the measurement system.The risk needs to be measured and evaluated by quantitative or qualitative (or comprehensive) methods.Some methods are to use established models, which input the characteristics of risks and the situation faced by risks, so that predictions can be made based on historical experience.
(5) Explain the results.The data produced in the measurement needs to be explained.This interpretation can also be qualitative or quantitative.The results of the measurement process provide a hint of prediction and possible results, but these still need to be explained.Two different interpreters may use the same data and results, but their evaluations are different.Explanations may use extrapolation to predict future results based on observed data.
(6) Make decisions.The final stage of the whole process needs to decide which risks will be retained and which risks will be transferred out.Whether the risk is retained depends on the actual situation of the organization and the attitude of decision makers.
basis
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（1） Identified risks[2]
The identified risks of science and technology planning projects are the basis of project risk assessment.
（2） Project progress
At different stages of the project, the degree of risk faced is different.Generally speaking, with the progress of the project, the risk and uncertainty of the project will gradually reduce.
（3） Nature and scale of the project
Due to the different nature of each science and technology plan project, the impact of risks on it is also different.Generally speaking, the risk level of smaller science and technology planning projects is lower, while the risk level of large, complex projects or high-tech projects is higher.
（4） Accuracy and reliability of data
The accuracy and reliability of data will affect the results of project risk assessment, so it is necessary to assess the accuracy and reliability of data.
method
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There are generally qualitative and quantitative methods for project risk assessment.In the practice of project management, combining the estimation of experts and project management personnel with limited data has become a more widely used method in project risk assessment.In project risk assessment, the method to be adopted depends on the source of project risk, the probability of occurrence, the impact of risk and the attitude of managers to risk.[2]
（1） Qualitative risk assessment
1. Historical data method
Under the condition that the project conditions are basically the same, the probability of each possible event can be estimated by observing the number of times that each potential risk has occurred in a long period of time. This estimation is based on the frequency that each event has occurred in the past.
2. Theoretical probability distribution method
When the project manager does not have enough historical information and data to determine the probability of project risk events, it can be supplemented or modified according to some probability distributions in theory, so as to establish the probability distribution map of risks.
The commonly used risk probability distribution is normal distribution, which can describe the probability distribution of many risks, such as traffic accidents, property losses, processing and manufacturing deviations, etc.In addition, the theoretical probability distribution commonly used in risk assessment includes discrete distribution, equal probability distribution, stepped distribution, triangular distribution and lognormal distribution.
3. Subjective probability
Due to the one-time and unique nature of the project, the risks of different projects are often different.Therefore, in many cases, project managers should measure the probability or probability distribution of project risk events according to their own experience, and the project risk probability thus obtained is called subjective probability.The size of subjective probability is often estimated based on people's long-term accumulated experience and understanding of project activities and related risk events.
4. Estimation of consequences of risk events
The loss caused by risk accident should be measured from three aspects: the nature of risk loss, the size of risk loss range and the time distribution of risk loss.
（2） Quantitative risk assessment
Quantitative risk assessment includes interview method, break even analysis, sensitivity analysis, decision tree analysis and non positive decision analysis.
Evaluation results
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The most important result of project risk assessment is the quantified project risk list.This list comprehensively considers factors such as the probability of project risk occurrence, the degree of impact of risk consequences, etc., so the project undertaking unit can rank the project risks according to this, so as to determine what risk response measures should be taken and to what extent the control measures should be implemented.[2]
The project risk list can generally include the following contents:
① The probability of project risk occurrence.
② Scope of possible impact of project risks.
③ Estimation of the expected occurrence time of project risks.
④ Possible consequences of project risks.
⑤ Determination of project risk level.
Project risks can be divided into four levels:
a. Disaster level - This level of risk must be eliminated immediately.
b. Severity - This kind of risk will cause the project to deviate from the target, and control measures need to be taken immediately.
C. Slight level - it will not cause harm to the project for the time being, but countermeasures should also be considered.
d. Ignore level - this kind of risk can be ignored without taking control measures.
