Random exponent, yesfuturesandsharesCommonly used in the markettechnical analysisTools.The random index integrates the momentum concept, strength index andMoving AverageSome advantages ofClosing priceBy calculating the highest price of the current day or recent days,minimum priceAnd closing priceTrue amplitude, reflecting the strength, weakness andOverbought and oversoldPhenomenon.Stochastic index also fully considers the randomness of price fluctuations in the designamplitude of the earthquake waveAnd the measurement of medium and short-term fluctuations, so that its short-term market measurement function ratioMoving AverageMore accurate and effective, short-term in the marketOverbought and oversoldIn terms of prediction, it is more sensitive than the strength index.Therefore, as a medium - and short-term technical market measurement tool for the stock market, random index is quite practical and effective.
The random index (KD) was invented by George Ryan many years agosharesStill infuturesThe market has been widely used, and it can also be borrowed in the foreign exchange market.
When prices rise,Closing priceTends to approach the upper end of the price range of the day;In the downward trend, the closing price tends to be close to the lower end of the price range of the day.As for the% K line and% D line,% D is more important. It is mainly used to provide buying and selling signals.
In the foreign exchange market, most of the market will close at a high price every day before the market trend rises and turnsClosing priceWill often deviate fromLow orderStochastic index fully considers the randomness of price fluctuationamplitude of the earthquake waveAnd the measurement of medium and short-term fluctuations, so that its short-term market measurement function ratioMoving AverageMore accurate and effective, in the short-term marketOverbought and oversoldMore thanRelative strength indexsensitive.
Therefore, this index plays a huge role in the stock market, futures market, foreign exchange market, including the national debt market.
Application rules
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(a) % K value above 80,% D value above 70OverboughtGeneral standard of;%K value below 20,% D value below 30 isOversoldGeneral criteria for.
(b) Pay attention to this phenomenon: when the trend of exchange rate is higher and higher, while the random index is lower and lower;Or when the trend of exchange rate is lower and lower, and the index is higher and higher, these phenomena are called "deviation phenomenon".When occursDeviation phenomenon Generally, it is a turning signal, which may reach the top (or bottom) in the medium and short term trend. It is the time to buy (or sell).
(c) When the% K value is greater than the% D value (especially after a long period of decline), it is a buy signal when the% K value breaks through the% D value from bottom to top;When the% D value is greater than the% K value (especially after a long-term rise), the% K value isSell signal。
(d) % K value and% D value cross more than 80 - it not only reflectsOverboughtThe degree, or the signal of selling, is relatively accurate;%The crossing of K value and% D value is below 20 - it not only reflectsOversoldThe degree of purchase reflects the signal of purchase, and is relatively accurate;However, when this kind of crossover occurs at around 50, and the trend falls into consolidation, the trading can be regarded as invalid.
(e) The% K value and% D value will work better with the% J value index in use. The formula:% J=3K-2D, which is to find the maximum value of% K at% DDeviation degree, when% J is greater than 100Overbought, when% J is less than 10Oversold, so it is often referred to as KDJ value, which is of great significance in practice.
(f) When the% K value falls to 0, it will often rebound to 20-25. In the short term, it will fall back to near 0, and the market will start to rebound;%When the K value rises to 100, it will often rebound to 70-80. In the short term, it will fall back to nearly 100, and the market will also start to rebound.
(g) Onforeign exchangeThe% K and% D values of 30 minutes, 15 minutes and 5 minutes in thetransactionAs an important reference coefficient, short-term Huiyou can make profits in short-term trading by using the above rules.
The calculated interval is 0-100, and the current day can be simply calculatedClosing priceThe relative position within all price ranges in the past five days, if more than 70, indicates that the closing price of the day is close to the upper end of the price range;If it is lower than 30, it means that the closing price of the day is close to the lower end of the price range.
Original calculation method
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The random index can choose any number of days as the calculation basis, for example, the formula of KD line of five days is:
H5 is the highest price in the last five days;H3 is the sum of the last three (C-L5) numbers
L3 is the sum of the last three (H5-L5) numbers.
The calculated number is 0-100, and the obtained number is plotted on the graph. Generally, the K line is represented by a solid line, while the D line is represented by a dotted line.
The above is the original calculation method, and there are also improved formulas.Cancel the old K line and change the D line to K line;The three-day average replaces the D line.
Fundamentals
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The random index integrates the momentum concept, strength index andMoving AverageSome advantages ofClosing priceThat is, by calculating the true fluctuation amplitude of price fluctuations such as the highest price, lowest price and closing price on the current day or in recent days, it reflects the strength and weakness of the price trend and the phenomenon of overbought and oversold.
Application principle
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summary
The random index is used to analyze and judge the price trend with the graphical relationship composed of two curves,% K and% D. This graphical relationship mainly reflects the market'sOverbought and oversoldPhenomenon, trend divergence phenomenon and the phenomenon of% K and% D crossing and breaking each other, which indicates the process of reaching the top and bottom of the medium and short-term trend
The specific application rules are as follows
（1）Overbought and oversoldJudgment of region - the general standard of overbought is that the% K value is above 80, and the% D value is above 70.%K value less than 20 and% D value less than 30 are considered asOversoldGeneral criteria for.
(2) Discrepancy judgment - when the stock price trend is higher from peak to peak, the curve of the random index is lower from peak to peak, or the stock price trend is lower from bottom to bottom, the random index curve is higher from bottom to bottom. This phenomenon is called backsliding. When the random index and the stock price trend diverge, it is generally a signal of turning, indicating that the medium-term or short-term trend has reached the top or bottom,At this time, you should choose the right time to buy and sell.
(3) Cross breakthrough judgment of% K line and% D line - when the% K value is greater than the% D value, it indicates that the current trend is upward. Therefore, when the% K line breaks through the% D line from bottom to top, it is a buying signal. Conversely, when the% D value is greater than the% K value, it indicates that the current trend is downward. Therefore, when the% K line breaks through the% D line from top to bottom, it is a selling signal.
%The crossing breakthrough of K line and% D line is more accurate when it is above 80 or below 20. The difference between KD line and strength index is that it can not only reflect the market'sOverboughtOr the degree of oversold can also achieve the function of returning the trading signal through cross breakthrough. However, when this cross breakthrough occurs around 50 and the trend falls into the market, the trading signal should be regarded as invalid.
(4) K line shape judgment - when the% K line gradient tends to be flat, it is a warning signal of short-term trend reversal. This situation occurs in largePopular stocksAnd higher accuracy in the index;The accuracy is lower in the cold or small stocks.
(5) In addition, the random index also has some theoretical turning signals: the speed of K line and D line rising or falling is weakened, and there is buckling, which usually means that the trend will turn in the short term;After a period of rise or fall, the K line suddenly crosses the D line, indicating that the market trend will turn in the short term: when the K line falls to zero, it usually rebounds to between 20 and 25, and should fall back to near zero in the short term.At this time, the market should begin to rebound.If the K line rises to 100, the situation is just the opposite.
Application examples
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(1) Stochastic index is a short-term, sensitive index, with comprehensive analysis, but more complex than strength index.
(2) The typical backscattering accuracy of random index is quite high. Look at the typical backscattering area and pay attention to the D line, while the K line is only used to send trading signals.[2]
(3) In use, there are often J linesindexThat is, 3 times the value of K minus 2 times the value of D (3K-2D=J). The purpose is to find the maximum value of K and DBe obedient and leaveTo find the bottom and head with the leading KD value.%When J is greater than 100Overbought, less than 10Oversold。
Stochastics (STC, also known as KD line), a random index, can also be used to judge the RSI introduced last weeksharesgenusOverboughtorOversoldHowever, STC has one more function than RSI, which is to find out what to buySelling price。
STC reflectssharesThe highest andminimum priceBit, same dayClosing price20 and 10 in the weekly reader's question indicate that% K is calculated based on the highest and lowest price of the 20th day, and% D is calculated based on the average of% K of the 10th day. These two days can be adjusted at will. Common combinations include 14 days/3 days, 18 days/5 days (days used in the attached figure), and 9 days/3 days.The calculation method takes 20 days/10 days as an example:
「C」 Is the current dayClosing price"L20" is the lowest price within 20 days, and "H20" is the highest price within 20 days.
The above is the "Fast stochastics" that Zhou readers want to know.But because the fast random exponential pairprice of stockIt is sensitive and easy to send wrong information, so the investment community has improved it to "Slow stochastics".% K of the slow random index is equal to% D of the fast random index, and% D of the slow random index is the 10 day average of% K.Since% K (hereinafter referred to as% SK) of the slow random index is the average of% K of the fast random index, and% D (hereinafter referred to as% SD) is the average of% SK, the trend of% SK and% SD is smoother than that of% K and% D (see figure).
50 is the boundary between good and bad
Because that dayClosing priceC must be equal to or lower than the highest price H20, but not lower than zero. From the formula just mentioned, the value of STC must range from 0 to 100.Take the middle number 50 as the dividing line between good and bad, which is lower than 20% SK and 30% SDprice of stockVery close to the 20thLow order, set asOversold；If it is higher than 80% SK and 70% SD, it means that the stock price is very close to the 20 day highOverbought。
To buy or sell at a certain pricesharesIt depends on the buying or selling signal sent by STC.When% SK fromLow orderWhen it rises above% SD, it means that% K of the new day is higher than the average of the last 10 days, which is a buying signal;Conversely, when the high level of% SK falls below% SD, it is a sell signal.
If the buy signal is sent onOversoldZone, or the sell signal is sent atoverbought , you can pay more attention and decide whether to buy or sell, but if% SK hovers around 50, it meansprice of stockCowhide, then, even if there is a signal to buy or sell, it should not be actively considered.
