Financial risk refers to the risk related to finance, such as financemarket risk 、Financial product risk, risks of financial institutions, etc.The consequences of a financial institution's risk often outweigh its own impact.Financial institutions in specificfinancial transactions The risks in the activities may pose a threat to the survival of the financial institution;A specific financial institution has a crisis due to poor management, which may affect the wholefinancial system The stable operation of is a threat;Once it happenssystem risk ，financial system Failure in operation will inevitably lead to chaos in the economic order of the whole society, and even lead to serious political crisis.
On March 2, 2021, the 2021 People's Daily Online National Two Sessions SurveyHot wordsFinancial risk ranked sixth in the list.
The so-called systemic financial risk and global financial risk are relative to individual financial risk or local financial risk.
From the lessons of some countries in the world, no matter what causes the financial crisis, it will ultimately be manifested as a payment crisis, that is, either the failure to pay off the matured foreign debts, or the banking system has failed to meet the general deposit requirements of domestic depositors, which will further lead toSqueeze liftEvenBankruptcy。It is precisely from this emphasis on the importance of liquidity that many foreign monetary and financial theoretical works willsystem risk It is defined as a dangerous phenomenon caused by the destruction or interruption of the payment chain.
When talking about and using the concept of systemic financial risk, we have consciously or unconsciously equated it with "overall financial risk".In the history of cultural development, it is common for a word or a concept to change its meaning slightly with the change of historical conditions.I think one important reason why systemic financial risk can be used for global financial risk is thatfinancial system The development and progress ofInteractionBecome an indisputable fact.For example,stock marketThe credit market and the credit market are two markets with different functions in the financial field, but the sharp rise and fall of the stock market may cause a large number of bank bankruptcies;Conversely, mergers and acquisitions or bankruptcies among some influential big banks may also lead to sharp changes in the stock market.
stayModern market economyIn China, the financial field is the field with the most intense competition and thus the highest degree of risk. There is no financial activity without risk. Therefore, it is impossible to avoid financial risks. For the decision-making authorities, there areDecision referenceThe significance is to focus on systemic financial risks or global financial risks.The term "defusing financial risks" commonly used in our newspapers is actually a muddle. Systematic financial risks or global financial risks exist all the time. Individual financial risks or local financial risks are emerging every day. How can we defuse them?If we say "resolve", we should only resolve the crisis, but when the crisis has not yet occurred, we should do the work - and only reduce systemic or global financial risks.
Prevention of disclosure
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financial risk
Finance is the core of modern economy,financial marketIt is the artery of the whole market economy system.But finance itselfhigh-riskSexual and financial crisisdominoes effect, makingfinancial system The safe, efficient, and stable operation of is crucial to the overall stability and development of the economy.China has crowded out a large number of people by virtue of the macro regulation under the RMB capital account that has not been opened up and started in 1993Economic bubbleOfDual protection, onAsian financial crisisChina survived the disaster.However, we should be soberly aware that there are also many deep level problems in China's financial sector.
China officially joined in 2001WTODeeper opening-up will attract funds and bring advanced technology and management experience to China's financial industry. However, China's financial industry will also face enormous challenges.The competition between financial institutions and the entry of foreign finance in the reality of small scale, weak innovation ability and heavy historical burden is no different from "dancing with wolves in shackles".Therefore, in theeconomic globalizationandFinancial opennessOn the premise of, we should emphasize preventing and resolving financial risks to ensureFinancial securityAnd become a basic requirement for financial operation.
On March 5, 2018, Premier Li Keqiang was workingGovernment Work ReportShi said that at present, China's economic and financial risks are generally controllable, and we should address both symptoms and root causes to effectively eliminate potential risks.attack severelyIllegal fund-raising、financial fraud And other illegal activities.Accelerate marketization and legalizationDebt to equity swapandMerger and reorganization of enterprises。Strengthening financial institutionsRisk internal control。Strengthen the overall coordination of financial supervision and improve theShadow Bank、online finance、Financial holding companyAnd further improve financial supervision.Prevention and resolutionLocal government debt risk。All kinds of illegal borrowing and guarantee are strictly prohibited.The provincial government takes the overall responsibility for the debts in its jurisdiction, and the local governments below the provincial level take their own responsibilities to actively and steadily dispose of the outstanding debts.Sound normativeLocal government borrowingFinancing mechanism。[2]
features
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basic feature
The basic characteristics of financial risks are as follows:
(1) Uncertainty: It is difficult to fully grasp the factors affecting financial risks in advance.
(2) Relevance: The particularity of the commodity currency operated by financial institutions determines that financial institutions are closely related to the economy and society.
（4）infectivity: Financial institutions are responsible foragencyThe function of the original lending and borrowing was separated.The risks of any party in this intermediary network may have an impact on other aspects, even industrial and regional financial risks, leading tofinancial crisis。
performance
What is financial risk?Financial risk is a certain amountfinancial assetsIn the futureExpected revenuePossibility of loss.For financial operation, risk is a kind ofobjective existenceWhat we need to do is to learn how to control risks and regulate financial risks.
Financial risks can be divided intomarket risk , institutional risk, institutional risk, etc., but the biggest risk in China comes from the impact of traditional systems and regulatory failures resulting in violations.Due to the institutional and institutional factors accumulated for a long time, including the traditionalplanned economyDue to the influence of the system, state-owned enterprises rely too much on construction fundsbank loans，Bank credit fundsFinancialization;In addition, the internal management of financial institutions is poor, resulting in hugeBad creditor's rights, leading to financialAsset qualityNot high.China's securitiesfutures marketIrregular operation has disturbed the normal order, and there have been a lot of violations of laws and regulationsSecurities institutionsAnd enterprises (including listed companies) collude with a few banking institutions,Make exorbitant profits, the stock market'sSpeculative riskIntroducing the banking system;Some enterprises and financial institutions evade national supervision and conduct overseas futures trading in violation of regulations, causing huge losses to the country;Listed companies are not standardized, and even become a means of helping the poor and circulating money.
information disclosureIt can also be called“Information disclosure”, in the capital marketPrinciple of publicityThe following refers to the financial institutions and listed companies that will be related to their operations in accordance with the provisions of the lawSignificant informationOne that is made publiclegal system。Information disclosure systemIt has attracted the attention of financial legislation in various countries and has become an important system of financial supervision in various countries.From the perspective of economics, in the information age, effective information disclosure can help managers andpurchaserProvide sufficient information for correctinvestment decision Is conducive to improving the efficiency of the capital market and optimizingAllocation of financial resources, makeLaw of valueGive full play to its role in a larger scope.From the legal point of view, the information disclosure system can effectively preventInformation Asymmetry , errors, etc. to prevent information monopoly andInformation advantagesResulting in unfairness.
2. Internal and external risk control mechanism of financial institutionsOrganic combinationspot
As mentioned earlier, the biggest financial risk is institutional risk, so financial institutions should "practice their internal skills" and improve under the premise of effective national supervisionInternal control mechanism。In China, legislation and law enforcement have always attached great importance to national supervision, andIndustry self-disciplineAnd the improvement of internal control mechanism.This kind of internal and external controlout-off-balanceIt weakens the effect of external control and supervision and is not conducive to the overall security of finance.The establishment and improvement of the information disclosure system, coupled with the regulatory constraints on information disclosure, will help the countryfinancial regulationThe external control mechanism of financial institutions is transformed into the internal control power of financial institutions.National supervision onAuthenticity of information disclosure、Integrity、timeliness As a result, it is bound to bring pressure on the operation of financial institutions and make them more transparent. The operation of financial institutions is in the public's view. Poor operation will lead to the loss of public confidence in them. They will strive to improve the internal control mechanism, avoid illegal operations, and maintain a good operating state.
Defect overcoming
The clearest provisions of Chinese laws on information disclosure system are as follows:《Securities Law》YesInformation disclosure of listed companiesIn terms of requirements, that is to say, the law clearly stipulates that information disclosure is mainly for listed companies, which are capital aggregators, but not for financial institutions as important subjects and intermediaries in the capital market.As for listed financial institutions, information disclosure is only required according to the Securities Law and because they are "listed companies", not because they are financial institutions.Even on this point, it seems that what we have done is not enough. Information disclosure is often untrue, incomplete and untimely, and national supervision has not achieved the expected effect;In addition, the information disclosure of listed financial institutionsaccounting standard They didn't do a good job either.
frominformation disclosureIn practice, the structure of information disclosure in a broad sense should be comprehensive (the information disclosure stipulated in the Securities Law of China is in a narrow sense).Information disclosure can be divided into public disclosure, industry disclosure and supervisor and competent department disclosure. The reality in China is that the operation of financial institutions is full disclosure of information to supervisors or competent departments, while there is little or no disclosure to the public and industry disclosure.This has led to the poor transparency of financial institutions in China, so there is no external credit pressurebusiness riskenlarge.
In view of the above shortcomings or fundamental inadequacies of information disclosure of financial institutions in China, many scholars advocate improving the information disclosure system of financial institutions from the perspective of legislation.The operation of financial institutions shall disclose their information to the public to guide reasonable and rationalFinancial consumption；Strengthening financial institutionsinformation disclosureAnd establish information disclosureResponsibility system, accounting and lawyers who play an important role in information disclosureIntermediary organizationsIt is also necessary to strengthen supervision and emphasize its responsibility to improve the quality of its assessment documents and ensure the authenticity of information.
make a concrete analysis
1. Banking needs limited information disclosure system
financial risk
Information disclosure of commercial banks iscentral bankAn important auxiliary means of effective supervision is also the basic requirement of the principle of market openness.At present, China's banking industryInternal control systemThe construction emphasizes more, but it is illegal. There is no transparency requirement for internal control construction, that is, information disclosure is not enough.exceptListed banksIn addition, almost all bank operations areGrey boxOperation in.This is alsoplanned economyThe sequela of the times.
Taking into account the realistic institutional factors, scholars advocate that the information disclosure system of the banking industry should be implemented step by step. It is urgent to study a limited information disclosure system.This limited information disclosure system should be able to achieve the purpose of forcing commercial banks to strengthen management and enhance their ability to withstand huge losses, and can exert pressure on commercial banks.Its main bodies are the central bank and commercial banks.The procedure consists of five levels.The first level is the internal disclosure of banks, mainly the key information held by internal regulators and investors;The second layer is the information disclosed by banks to the central bank, and the key information that should be mastered by the central bank;The third layer is disclosure among banks, which should be mastered by banksMarket information；The fourth layer is the information disclosed by the central bank on behalf of each bank, which should be relatively complete;The fifth floor is for banksThe publicThe information disclosed, the complete choice of the market, isinformation disclosureThe highest form of.
As for the contents disclosedBasel AccordThere are six categories: firstbanking businessStatus;Second, banksFinancial position；Third, the strategy and principle of risk management;Fourth, risk conditions, includingcredit risks、market risk 、Liquidity risk、Operational risk, legal and other risks;Fifth, accounting standards;Sixth, basic business management principles.By insisting on accurate, comprehensive and timely disclosure of information, the central bank will have much better supervision. At the same time, for commercial banks, itsbinding forceIt has also increased.
2. Insurance company credit is reflected in its information disclosure
The applicant purchases insurance for the purpose ofPurchase riskIts essence is to buy the reality and future of insurance companies, that is, the ability of insurance companies to provide risk protection at this time and in the future.Therefore, the basis for the policyholder to buy insurance is the credit of the insurance company.The insurance company, due to its creditContinuityAnd guarantee the characteristics of the flow, so that its risk hasLong termAnd concealment, but once exposed, it may be difficult to clean up.Due to the lack of policyholdersExpertiseIt is impossible to fully understand the operating conditions and risks of the insurance company. Even with expertise, the cost of information collection is too high, and others maythumb a liftAnd give up.Therefore, it should form amarket mechanism, requiring insurance companies to disclose theirBusiness informationProfessionals will evaluate the business status, financial quality, risk management and development prospects, and make the evaluation public.
Similarly, emphasizeInsuranceInformation disclosure, forCIRCOur supervision is also an extremely powerful tool, which will encourage insurance companies to continuously improve their business quality and create more products that satisfy the insured.
3、information disclosureIt is the requirement of complete and transparent capital market
Listed companies have a perfect information disclosure system, and the operation of listed companies is transparent, which is extremely conducive to safeguarding the interests of shareholders and creditors.However, only the information disclosure of listed companies is not enoughstock marketNo securities companies andSecurities intermediaryThe participation of is incomplete.
Although China's securities market has made great progress after ten years of development, it is still far from perfectSecurities issuance approval systemUnder conditions,Securities firmsIt is conditional for listed companies to carry out illegal packaging. Moreover, securities firmsInsider informationIt has natural advantages, so the CSRC also needs to strengthen the supervision of securities and other intermediariesBusiness behaviorDo not abuse its advantages and do not violate the "three fairness" principle of the Securities Law.useinformation disclosureTo restrict securities companies and other intermediary institutions, it will also have a chain effect on listed companies, playing the role of "killing two birds with one stone".To expand the business and scale of securities companies and other intermediaries, they need sufficient funds, good talents and standardized management.Similarly, information disclosure is an effective catalyst to achieve these goals.
Trust and Investment CompanyAccepting the trust of the trustor, with the best interests of the beneficiary as the purposeDealing with trustsTransaction, andPrudent managementtrust property。According to the latest《Trust law》AndPeople's Bank of China《Administrative Measures for Trust and Investment Companies》The trust and investment company must set up its own account and the customer's account respectively, that isTheSelf owned property and trust property are managed separately. In reality, under the premise of insufficient information disclosure requirements and supervision, trust and investment companies are very easy to misappropriate trust property for non trust purposes, use trust property for their own operations or provide guarantees for their own operations, and conduct mutual transactions between trust properties in different trust accounts.
To eliminate the aboveTrust and Investment CompanyAnd establish and complete good trust and investment company businessmanagement systemandinternal control system On the premise of strengthening supervision, it is necessary to emphasize the information disclosure obligations of trust and investment companies, and make their operations within the broad vision of regulatory agencies, industry organizations, as well as clients and beneficiaries, which can curb the momentum of their illegal operations, promote their internal management, and improveBusiness performance。
Nine risks
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The consequences of a financial institution's risk often outweigh its own impact.Financial institutions in specificfinancial transactions The risks in the activities may pose a threat to the survival of the financial institution;A specific financial institution has a crisis due to poor management, which may affect the wholefinancial system The stable operation of is a threat;Once it happenssystem risk The failure of the financial system will inevitably lead to chaos in the economic order of the whole society, and even lead to serious political crisis.
In the process of gradual reform, the risk isolation mechanism between finance and finance has not been established.On the one hand, financial risks are transferred to finance.Due to the lack of institutional norms, the central bankApplication of fundsThere is an obvious tendency of financialization, and it is difficult to recover the huge amount of re loans.on the other hand,financial risk Into financial risks.Since 1998,Debt dependencyandgovernment debt-service ratio On the high side.financial powerMismatch with authority,Central and western regionscountyTownship financeCommon difficulties, there are a lot ofImplicit debt。
Huge informal finance becomes a hidden danger
Over the years, SMEsFormal financeIt is very difficult to raise development funds through channels, so we are forced to seek informal financial channels.The scale of China's informal finance is estimated to be close to 1/3 of that of formal finance.
Prominent risks in mechanism transformation
First, banking risks are concentrated, and asset quality is generally worrying.China's banking industry lacks competition,corporate governance Weak, businessinnovation abilityPoor,financial risk ubiquitous.secondly,securities businessHuge financial risks are implied.The income structure of securities companies is unreasonable, the asset quality is not high, the liquidity is obviously insufficient, and the cumulative risk is serious. A number of securities companies have been in a serious insolvency situation;"Privatization" of illegal benefits is widespread?,Illegal costInstitutional dislocation incentive of "socialization", overallmoral risk Serious.Third, insurance company riskNot to be ignored。insurance industry Overall integrity awareness andService awarenessWeak;Operation managementLow level, lack of effective supervision and restriction on the operation of branches.Seize at no costmarket share，Vicious competitionSerious.
Capital account controlSerious weakening of effectiveness leads to large-scale abnormalitycapital flows 。First,Fake foreign capitalThe rent-seeking inflow of.Since 2001, net capital inflows have increased rapidly.According to the actual utilization of foreign capital in China, a considerable part of the inflow of foreign capital has an obvious tendency of "domestic capital capitalization", with an obvious feature of "policy rent-seeking". There are also a large number of illegal capital disguised as cross-border flow of current account receipts and payments. Second,capital flightSeriously, the escape channels are diversified.Large scale abnormal capital flow increasedRMBOfexchange-rate risks, affecting our economyFinancial security。
RMB rateLoss of mechanism
The defects of the RMB exchange rate mechanism have led to the unsustainable development dilemma of China's traditional opening mode and policy, and further triggered many outstanding problems: First, the distortion of the exchange rate formation mechanism has led to incentive foreign investment policies, which have intensified domesticDevelopment modeThe contradiction of.Second, lowExchange rateBoost extensive typeForeign trade growth mode, frequently causing internationalEconomic friction。Third, distorted exchange rate formation mechanism leads to lowValue chainValue added model, endangering China's resourcesEnergy security。Fourth,Exchange rate mechanismThe long-term distortion ofExternal dependence, increase the countryMacroeconomyOperational risk.Fifth, it is increasingly large and exceedsReasonable needsOfforeign exchange reserve, causing hugenational welfareLosses.
Marketization of interest ratedouble-edged sword，Interest rate riskIn fact, they are two sides of the same problem in the process of gradual marketization of interest rates.First, because our countryInterest rate marketizationThe process is slow, the regulation is still strict, and the commercial banks cannot adjust the interest rate independently, facing a large systemic interest rate risk.Second, with the continuous advancement of China's interest rate marketization process,Interest rate fluctuationIt will continue to intensify, and financial institutions will also face greater risks due to their insufficient ability to manage interest rate risk.
Real estate risks cannot be ignored
As of 2004, China's banking industry accounted for 17 trillion yuanCredit assetsAbout half of them are based onReal estate loansOr directly related to real estate.The hidden risks in the real estate industry should not be underestimated, mainly as follows:Real estate developersThe ratio of bank funds obtained through various channels to its assets is more than 70%, and high debt operation impliesfinancial risk Prominence;False mortgagestayPersonal housing loanSerious problems;The operation risk of real estate loans issued by grass-roots banks is obvious;Land development loanThere is greater credit risk;newlaws and regulationsMay restrict loansCollateralExecution of,Legal riskenlarge;wait.especiallyReal estate marketThe existence of bubbles is almost equal to financial risks, which may affect the stability and development of China's financial market.
The so-called "Latin Americanization" of finance mainly means that domestic financial activities are increasingly dependent oninternational capital , home countryfinancial marketGradually dominated by foreign capital, domestic assetsPricing power、Securities service industry、income from investmentSuch a phenomenon is mostly controlled or dominated by international investors and foreign financial service institutions.All kinds of signs indicate that China's finance is indeed in danger of "Latin Americanization", which is directly reflected in China'sfinancial assetsLoss of pricing power;The stock market is not really in line with the international standards, not onlyOptimize resource allocationEven the financing function has shrunk sharply;A large number of domesticHigh quality enterprisebe forcedOverseas listing, domestic investors sigh with admiration;Under the premise that China does not have the right to price assets, domestic commercial banks compete to transfer equity to foreign capital on a large scale, resulting inNational wealthLoss;We are paying high pricesIntroduce foreign capitalAt the same timedeveloped countryProvide funds."Latin Americanization" may be the biggest risk in our opening up.
stock investment
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Financial risk is related to the way the company raises funds.We usually observe a company'scapital structure To measure the financial risk of the company's stock.Companies with a small proportion of loans and bonds in their capital structure have low financial risks in their stocks;The financial risk of stocks of companies with significant loan and bond ratios is high.The joint-stock company can pay dividends to shareholders only after paying all debt interest and due principal.The remaining part of the company's total income from sales of products and services minus all operating expenses such as wages, depreciation and materials is the company'sbusiness income。Tax and necessary financial expenses, such as interest paid to banks or other creditors, are deducted from operating income, and the remaining part is the income that can be used for dividend payment.As this income is used for dividend paymentStock priceThe judgment ofYieldThe aspect is very important.If a company raises all its capital by issuing shares, it does notInterest expense。As for any company that raises part of its capital by borrowing money, the change in its operating income will cause shareholders to pay interestnet incomeMore changes.
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importance
Since July 1997Asian financial crisisSince its occurrence, financial risk has become one of the most popular topics in China.The global financial crisis is still contagious, and we in China must also be more vigilantSense of hardshipandCrisis awarenessOnly in this way can we have a clear understanding of the real contradictions in China's economic operation and take appropriate countermeasures.
staymarket economyAll activities in the field of competition are accompanied by certain risks.Financial risks are more prominent.According to the most abstract analysis, the economic operation system can be simply divided into two sectors: the real economy sector and the financial sector. Under modern economic conditions, not only the contradictions in the real economy sector should be reflected in the financial sector to form certain financial risks, but also the finance itself will automatically generate risks due to various problems in the operation process.Especially in variousAsset securitization, Primitivityfinancial products With the growing trend of derivativesVirtual commodityMore and more financial risks will arise from the independence movement.In this sense, in a market economy system, there is a very normal and logical phenomenon of financial risk.
When it comes to this, people will not only ask: since the existence of financial risks is a very normal and logical phenomenon, why do we raise the issue of financial risks to such an important position and regard it as a key issue related to economic development and social stability?I think there are at least the following reasons:
First, fromEast AsiaSix countriesRussia、Brazil's financial crisisThe lesson is that none of its financial risks and financial turbulence is not the result of long-term accumulation of financial risks. Once financial risks evolve into financial crises, they will not only lead to economic recession, but also lead to social and even political crises.
Third, the outward dependence of China's economy is constantly increasing. In this context, the impact of dealing with financial risks will be shown in two aspects: first, the ability to withstand external financial shocks;Secondinternational financial marketTrust.We have to take the initiativeStructural adjustmentOnly by effectively resolving and reducing financial risks can we avoid the financial crisis and have a strong attraction for foreign investors.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the financial risks concerned by China are very different from those in the traditional sense.In essence, it seems to refer to those financial hidden dangers that may pose a serious threat to the normal development of the national economy.
meaning
The western financial risk analysis isfinancial marketTheory and securities investment theory.
In the division of assets of the whole society,Actual capitalandfinancial assetsIt is the two most basic components.Normally,Actual assetsForownerOr the dominator provides service flow, while the financial asset provides service flow for its owner or dominatorMonetary incomeFlow.The most direct form of monetary income flow is interest, dividend, bonus, etc.
When people buy financial assets with their own currency at a certain price, the income flow provided by such financial assets is not the current income flow, but the monetary income flow that will be realized in a certain period of time in the future. Therefore, when the monetary income flow to be realized is converted into the actual monetary income flow, it must be consideredtime factor。The real world is full of competition and unexpected factorsfinancial assetsThere is still considerable uncertainty about how much money income flow can be generated in the future.This possibility of loss of expected income is commonly referred to as financial risk.
In many literatures, people equate risk with uncertainty.In fact, risk and uncertainty are two concepts that are strictly different.
For a microscopicEconomic entityFor example, risk is the possibility of loss of its expected income, while uncertainty is the impossibility of predicting or controlling the occurrence of certain unpleasant events.From a statistical point of view, uncertainty is manifested asRandom eventIts appearance is usually accidental and sudden.Risk usually comes with income.For example, investors in financial assetsCapital gainsThe confidence of expectation can be expressed by probability, which can be used to describe any given state of such expectation.assumeInvestment behaviorThere are n possible results, so, thisprobability distributionThere must be two characteristics: first, it hasaverage valueThe central tendency represented by;Second, there must be some deviation, that isOff centre trend。The central inclination of the probability distribution represents the expected income of investors, while the off center trend represents the expected income of investorsRevenue risk。useprobability theoryThe risk of investors is the value of specific monetary returns in the probability distribution and the value representing investors' expectationsmedianThe degree of deviation, which can be usedstandard deviation The formula is as follows:
The above isAsset Selection Theoryandfinancial marketThe definition of risk in theory.The financial risk under this definition has the following characteristics and meanings: ① The risk as the research object refers to micro risk orIndividual risk；②The analysis of individual risks mainly serves the micro level of asset selectionInvestor；③In aFull competitionIn the financial market, rational investors can make estimates or alternative decisions on risks and returns in different asset choices.
Obviously, the above traditional analysis of financial risks is strictly different from the financial risks we will focus on here.
System Global
This is what we are talking about and making it one of the priorities of economic workQuasi financeRisk.
So, what is the measurement standard of systemic financial risk or global financial risk?
It should be said that the reason why people care about systemic financial risks is that when systemic financial risks develop to a certain extent, they will turn into financial crises. If a financial crisis causes a social and political crisis, it will not only pose a threat to the rulers' political power, but also lead to stagnation or serious regression of economic development.In this sense, discussing the measurement standard of financial risk is essentially to solve the early warning problem of financial crisis.
Among the countries that have experienced financial crises since July 1997,Thailand、Malaysia、Indonesia、the PhilippinesFourSoutheast AsiaCountries generally belong to the same type, South Korea, Japan and Russia belong to one type respectively, while Brazil, which had just experienced financial turbulence in January 1999, belongs to another type.The outbreak of financial crisis in Thailand and other countries is sudden. Not only are the governments of these countries unpreparedInternational Monetary FundSuch international financial institutions did not anticipate in advance.stayworld economyIn the academic circles, Krugman, an economist from the United States, was the only one who predicted that these countries would face a financial crisis - as far as I know.Krugman's judgment is based on the fact that although Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries have absorbed a lot of foreign capitalshort-term capital The proportion is too high, and these foreign capitals are not improving theCapital formation rateAnd the transformation of technological achievements, but a large number ofstock marketAnd real estate, soeconomic system It contains crisis factors.The biggest difference between the financial turmoil in Brazil in 1999 and the financial crisis in Thailand and other countries is that the Brazilian government had ideological preparation and emergency arrangements as early as the second half of 1998East Asian financial crisisNot long after it appeared, it was expected by many economists.These economic judgments are based on Brazil's importantEconomic indicatorsIt is very similar to the similar indicators of some countries before the crisis.It can be seen that the financial crisis is by no means like an antelope hanging over a horn.The financial risks hidden in the economic system before its outbreak are always reflected in certain indicators or structural contradictions between financial and economic operations.
risk management
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Overview of financial risk management
Financial risk management isFor-profit organization andnonprofit organizationMeasurement andcontrol risk And returns.The term financial risk management is the core of financial language.along withFinancial integrationandeconomic globalizationWith the development of, financial risks have become increasingly complex and diversified, and the importance of financial risk management has become increasingly prominent.
Financial risk management includes the identification, measurement and control of financial risks.Due to the impact of financial risks on economy, finance and evennational securityIn the world, many large enterprises, financial institutions and organizations, governments andfinancial regulationAll departments are actively seeking the technology and method of financial risk management to effectively identify, accurately measure and strictly control financial risks.With modern economy increasingly relying on the financial industry, financial risk management has becomeIndustrial and commercial enterprisesAnd one of the core competitiveness of financial institutions. At the same time, it has become one of the most important,information scienceBoundary and financetheoretical realmIt is one of the important topics studied and concerned with the practical community.
Theoretical basis of financial risk management
Why financerisk management 。EarlyFinancial TheoryMerton Miller and Modigliani (1958) pointed out that in a perfect market, hedging orHedgingSuch financial operation means cannot affect the value of the company.The perfect market here means that there is no tax andBankruptcy costs, andMarket participantsAll have complete information.Therefore, it is unnecessary for the company's managers to conduct financial risk management.Similar theories also believe that even though there will be small fluctuations in the short term, in the long run,economical operation Will move along a balanced state, so those whoeconomic fluctuationRisk management based on losses will only be a waste of resources.In this view, there is no financial risk in the long run, so short-term financial risk management will only offset the company's profits, thereby reducing the company's value.However, in real economic life, financial risk management has attracted more and more attention from academia and practitioners.Whetherfinancial marketOfregulatorOr financial market participantsmanagement theory The demand for and methods is unprecedented.Those who advocate financial risk management believe that the demand for risk management is mainly based on the following theoretical basis:
The real economy and financial market are not perfect, so the company value can be improved through risk management.The imperfection of the real financial market is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first,Real marketThere are various taxes in.These taxes will affect the value of the company.From this point of view, Miller and Modigliani'sTheoretical hypothesisNot suitable in the real economic situation.Secondly, there aretransaction cost 。Finally, in the real market, it is impossible for financial participants to obtainFull informationOf.Therefore, it is quite possible and necessary to manage financial risks.
（1） Objectives of financial risk management.The ultimate goal of financial risk management is to identify and measure risksPossibleTo prevent and reduce losses and guarantee currencyFund raisingandoperating activitiesTo be carried out steadily.
（2） Evaluation of financial risks.Financial risk assessment refers to the evaluation of financial risksRisk identification, financial risk measurement, selection of various risk disposal tools and financial risk management countermeasures.(1) Risk identification.Financial risk identification means thatResearchOn the basis of, use various methods to systematically classify and conduct comprehensive analysis and research on potential and obvious risks.(2)Risk measurement。It refers to the estimation and measurement of the possibility of financial risks or the scope and degree of losses, and the quantitative analysis of the possibility and consequences of losses at different levels.(3) The choice of financial risk management countermeasures.Means in the frontTwo stagesOn the basis of the above, according to the goal of financial risk management, various tools for financial risk management are selected and optimally combined, and suggestions for financial risk management are put forward.This is the most important stage of financial risk assessment.
（3） Control and disposal of financial risks.The control and disposal of financial risk is the countermeasure category of financial risk management and the way and method to solve financial risk.It is generally divided into control method and financial method.(1) Control method.It refers to a method of implementing various control tools to eliminate various hidden dangers, reduce the factors that cause financial risks and minimize the serious consequences of losses before losses occur.The main ways are to avoid risksLoss controlandDiversify risk。(2) Financial law.It refers to the financialRisk eventWhen losses have been caused after the occurrence, financial instruments shall be used to compensate the losses incurred in a timely manner to promote the recovery as soon as possible.
The so-called systemic financial risk refers to the concentrated outbreak of various risks.In general, whether there is a systematic risk should consider both internal and external economiesfinancial environment Financial institutionsOperationDebt level and interest rate of government and private institutionsExchange rate fluctuationsetc.universalityTo some extent“black swan”The impact of quasi sudden factors is most typical in the United States on October 19, 1987“Black Monday”Stock disaster event.It is reminiscent of the remarks made by the responsible person of the central bankWenzhouThe collapse of Liren Group.So,China AssociationIs there a systemic risk?I don't think so.However, although there is no foresight, there are near worries.
In the long run, although there are some structural problemsChina's economyIt is still in a rapid growth periodfinancial stability Provide the most favorable external guarantee;China's economy is gradually moving towardsdomestic market demandStimulating transformation, external influence on China's economyimpact forceIt is also declining.Moreover, for a long time, the supervision of the regulatory authorities over China's financial institutions has been relatively strict, and the leverage, virtualization, integration and derivative problems of financial institutions are not prominentReal economyIt always fits well.In contrast, in Europe and the United States, the excessive leverage and derivatives of financial institutions, as well as the loose supervision of the regulatory authorities, led to thesubprime crisis ；Because domestic economic growth is sluggish and the government has high welfareliabilitiesThe structural problems caused byEuropean debt crisis。China's economy is in trouble, but within a controllable range.The impact of the European debt crisis on China's economy is smaller than that of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States that year.
In the near future, the main line of the central economic work is "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and "stability" is the top priority.But there are many hidden worries in practice:financial system Look, the last three yearsbankingThe loan increment of accounts for more than 50% of the loan stock of each bank, and these loans have not yet been completedeconomic cycle Inspection of.
From the perspective of the real economy, the majority of SMEs, especiallySmall and micro enterprises, cost increaseprofit marginExtremely low.The financial industry is strong if the industry is prosperous, and the banking industry profits grow rapidly while the entityEnterprise profitThe decline is not normal.In addition, small and micro enterprisesfinancing channel Limited, resulting in several yearsprivate lending The increasing scale and interest rate directly triggered a series of private lending events.For four monthsexecutive meeting of the State CouncilThree special studies have been carried out to support small and micro enterprisesPolicy measures, sending a positive signal to the society.To solve these problems, the key lies in regulation and supervision.We should continue to control housing prices, but this will affect the development of the real economy, and then affect the stability of the financial system.This really makes people "draw out their swords and look around blankly".In the face of these difficulties, the core of its governance lies in more sparsity and less blockageGive moreTake less. Only in this way can we effectively prevent systemic financial risks and implement the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability".
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On March 2, 2021, the 2021 People's Daily Online National Two Sessions SurveyHot wordsFinancial risks rank first in the list6th.[3]
