Financial stability refers to a state, that is, the whole of a countryfinancial system There is no big fluctuation,financeThe function of the financial industry as a medium of funds can be effectively exerted, and the financial industry itself can maintain stable, orderly and coordinated development, but this does not mean that any financial institution will not fail.There is no strict definition of the term "financial stability" in China's theoretical and practical circles.Scholars in western countries do not have a unified and accurate understanding and summary of this, and they mostly analyze financial stability and its importance from the aspects of "financial instability", "financial fragility", etc.
Exchange rate transmission mechanism of financial stability
The research of the World Bank shows that since the 1970s, there have been 117 systemic banking crises in 93 countries, and 51 local banking crises in 45 countries.Promoting financial stability has increasingly become the core function of central banks in various countries.And China is joiningWorld Trade Organizationin the future,financial system Faced with enormous challenges and new risks, maintaining financial stability has become a key factor in promoting economic growth and a guarantee for the healthy and stable development of the national economy and long-term social stability.
connotation
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brief introduction
European Central BankThe definition of financial stability is representative. It is stated that financial stability refers to a state in which financial institutions, financial markets and market infrastructure operate well and resist various shocks without reducing the efficiency of savings to investment conversion.American economistFrederick·S. Mishkin believes that financial stability stems from a financial system that is built on a solid foundation and can effectively provide the opportunity to transform savings into investment without causing major turbulence.
(1) The key financial institutions in the financial system remain stable, because the public has full confidence that these institutions can perform their contractual obligations without intervention or external support;
(2) Key markets remain stable becauseEconomic entityCan trade at a price that reflects the basic factors of the market, and the price isFundamental planeIt will not fluctuate significantly in the short term when there is no change.
Financial stability is a dynamic concept with rich connotation, which reflects a state of financial operation, reflects the requirements of continuous optimization of resource allocation, and serves the fundamental goal of financial development.Specifically, financial stability has the following connotations:
Financial stability is global
The Impact of Exchange Rate System Reform on Financial Stability
As a financial institution“Lender of last resort”And the provider and maintainer of the payment and clearing system, the central bank should be based on maintaining the overall macrofinancial system We should pay close attention to the operational situation of the banking industry, take into account the dynamics and risks in securities, insurance and other fields, pay attention to the operating conditions of key financial institutions and markets, pay attention to monitoring and preventing the transmission of financial risks across markets, institutions and even countries, and take timely and effective measures to deal with the risks that may lead to overall situationSystematic riskAnd maintainFinancial systemThe overall stability of.
Financial stability is dynamic
Financial stability is a dynamic and developing concept. Its standard and connotation change with the development of economy and finance. It is not a fixed financial operation state.A healthy financial institution, a stable financial market, an adequate regulatory framework and an efficient payment and clearing system will adjust their strategies, structures and mechanisms within and among themselves and play an interactive game, forming an overall liquidity institutional framework for regulating and controlling systemic financial risks to adapt to the constantly changing financial situation.
Financial stability is beneficial
Financial stability is not a static state of operation lacking welfare improvement, but a stability under the condition of improving efficiency.One countryfinancial system We should focus on improving the efficiency of transforming savings into investment, and improve and perfect the optimal allocation of resources in the whole society.Based on the continuous improvement of efficiencyOptimized allocation of resourcesFinancial stability based on the enhanced ability to withstand risks will help build a financial system with sustainability, strong competitiveness and good economic benefits.
Financial stability is comprehensive
As a state of financial operation, financial stability requires different policy measures and methods (includingmonetary policyandfinancial regulationThe financial institutions, markets andReal economySo as to objectively require a comprehensive overall consideration of the means or policy tools for financial stability implementation.
Important judgment
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Price stability is an important condition for financial stability
Related book China Financial Stability Report
Relatively low and stableInflation rateCan givemarket subjectKeep stable expectationsReal economyAnd create good conditions for sustained economic growth.In the economic environment lacking price stability, market players face increased uncertainty,financial transactions As the cost of financial system operation rises, the mechanism of savings transforming into investment is vulnerable to "obstruction", thus increasingfinancial system It is difficult to maintain financial stability.
of course,price steadinessIt is not a sufficient condition for financial stability.Financial imbalances or instability sometimes accumulate and occur in a stable price environment.For example, in the late 1980s, the Japanese economyprice levelQuite stable, but soon after that, the asset market collapsed and financial institutions accumulated huge amountsNon performing assetsIt even went bankrupt, entering a recession period of up to 10 years.
Bank stability is the core of financial stability
Commercial banks operate in currencyFinancial enterprisesBanking is an industry based on money and credit.The important financial media function of the banking industry, its scale and weight in the financial industry, andPayment and clearing systemThe "natural connection" and its role in preventing financial risks determine that banking plays an important role in a country's financial system.The analysis of modern game theory and information economics shows that compared withsecurities businessInsurance and bankingInformation Asymmetry 、risk sharing And the correction and error correction mechanism has higher risk and vulnerability, and the probability of its unstable situation endangering the financial system is also much higher than that of the securities and insurance industries.
Financial stability is the foundation of financial security
Financial security is the core of a country's economic security, and financial stability is an important basis for ensuring a country's financial security.Under the circumstances of financial instability, such as substantial turbulence in a country's financial market, obstruction in the operation of the payment and clearing system, and bankruptcy of many financial institutions, there can be no financial security to speak of.Of course, financial stability does not necessarily bring absolute financial security.Financial stability under the condition of stable operation, good efficiency and reasonable structure can lay a strong foundation for financial security;The stability under the conditions of over regulation, low efficiency and structural imbalance will damage the intermediary function of the financial system, increase its vulnerability and incubate financial risks.
Based on the above analysis, we can try to determine the goal of financial stability: to maintain the basic stability of banking and other financial institutions and financial markets, and to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks.
Frame analysis
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EU New Financial Stability Framework
Whether the central bank can successfully implement and give full play to its responsibility for financial stability depends to a large extent on the establishment and good implementation of a relatively complete set of institutional frameworks.According to the view of Western economists such as Chenard, a country's financial system should play a better roleMacroeconomic environmentEffective supervision and management system and sound financial market infrastructure are indispensable.The above three factors have been regarded as the "three main pillars" of financial stability by western academia.
Under the economic and financial structure in the process of China's transition, in addition to the above three factors should be included in the institutional framework of financial stability, it is also of great significance to improve and perfect the institutional framework of the suitability of market subjects, the stability of market transactions and order.
Specifically, the basic institutional framework for financial stability can mainly include the following five aspects:market subjectAspects, market structure and orderFinancial regulationAnd supervision, market support and security, and financial risk disposal.
In terms of market players
China has made it clear that it is necessary to establish a modern society with sufficient capital, strict internal control, safe operation, good services and benefitsFinancial enterprises。Seen from the situation, there are still some problems in China's financial institutions, such as false ownership subjects, lack of corporate governanceNon performing assetsThe problems of high and low operating efficiency have become the "chronic diseases" that hinder the rapid development of the financial industry.In this respect, well constructedcapital structure Perfect corporate governance and other institutional frameworks are crucial. The key is to establish multiple equity constraint mechanisms, form effective incentive and supervision mechanisms, and solve the problem of power and responsibility symmetry.
In terms of market structure and order
There areDirect financingandIndirect financing, bond market and stock market, inter-bank market and exchange marketTradable sharesandNon tradable sharesAnd other structural imbalances andfinancial orderIrregular conditions imply internal instability in the financial industry, which can easily lead to large financial fluctuations, and then expand to the whole market through the correlation and interaction between marketsfinancial system , eventually leading to a financial crisis.In this regard, we should pay attention to relaxationFinancial regulationEfforts should be made to promote the reform and innovation of the financial market and ensure the stability of the financial order.We should gradually establish a benign interaction mechanism between the capital market and the money market, strengthen the in-depth cooperation between banks and the insurance industry, and buildDirect FinanceandIndirect FinanceThe institutional "platform" for coordinated development.
Specifically, it is necessary to relax the restrictions on commercial banks' access to the securities market, fund industry, trust industry, etc., and build an institutional framework to reasonably address the financing needs of securities companies;promoteAsset securitization、Money Market FundStandardized development and guidance of emerging financial instruments such asFinancial derivativesInnovation mechanism;Establishing and improving the bond and foreign exchange marketsmarket maker , ReformCompulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales systemImprove the relevant system of the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market;Cracking down on and punishing sabotage in accordance with the lawfinancial orderViolations of laws and regulations.
In terms of financial regulation and supervision
We should establish institutional arrangements at different levels to coordinatemonetary policyandfinancial regulationTo promote the achievement of financial stability goals.(1) The signing of the memorandum stipulates that the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and the regulatory authorities are maintainingfinancial system The responsibilities and legal status in the process of stability. It is clear that the central bank is responsible for the overall stability of the national financial system, and the Ministry of Finance and regulatory authorities also bear certain responsibilities;(2) Construct and coordinate macro financial stability and micro financial stabilityprudential supervision To strengthen the central bank's ability of forward-looking macro analysis and improve the regulatory level of the regulatory authorities;(3) Strengthen consultation and communication, establish and improve the prevention of cross market and cross system among departmentsfinancial risk And other aspects of information sharing, coordination and cooperation;(4) Use appropriateMonetary policy toolsTo stabilize the financial system, includingShort term interest rate、Open market operation、Window guidanceEtc;(5) Gradually establish a functional regulatory framework, and apply appropriatefinancial regulationMeans to maintain the stability of the financial system, such as prudentMarket access supervisionTimely supervision and corrective measures;(6) Accelerate the design and evaluation of financial stability indicators, build an early warning mechanism for financial risks, and strengthen cross cuttingmarket risk andSystematic riskMonitoring and analysis.
In terms of market support
China needs to raise the security of payment and clearing system to the level of maintaining financial stability.A better market security system is a powerful "buffer" to maintain financial stability.We should establish and improve the compensation mechanism for financial risks and establishdeposit insurance system 、Securities investorsCompensation system and life insurance policyholder compensation system, and pay attention to preventionmoral risk , give full play toMarket constraintsThe power of.
In terms of financial risk disposal
In accordance with the principles of compliance with the law, moderate limitation, and symmetry of rights and responsibilities, we should build a complete set of relatively perfect institutional framework to effectively handle financial risks, so as to minimize losses.A long-term emergency mechanism and system for handling financial risks should be established, its organizational structure, decision-making deployment and implementation should be clarified, and multiple risk plans should be prepared;Strictly grasp the standards and earnestly implement themLender of last resortAnd clearly define the "boundary" of the rules for providing liquidity support to effectively preventmoral risk ；perfectMarket withdrawal of financial institutionsTo explore and establish a sound framework for the bankruptcy system of financial institutions and improve the existing means and measures for risk relief of problematic financial institutions;In conjunction with the regulatory authorities, we will try to classify the risk categories of financial institutions and gradually establish an institutional framework for classified guidance, effective supervision and timely disposal.
Policy tools
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Internationally, there are four main types of policy tools for financial stability: first, relatively independent policy tools, including monitoring payment and settlement systems, macro prudential analysis, emergency liquidity assistance, and crisis coordination and management;Second, with the help ofMonetary policy toolsTo stabilizefinancial system , including monetary and credit policiesShort term interest rate、Open market operationAnd information exchange andWindow guidance；Third, usefinancial regulationMeans to maintain the stability of the financial system, including prudential regulation andprudential supervision ；Fourth, usecompensation for risk-takingTo maintain the stability of the financial system.
From the current situation of China's financial stability system constructionQuasi financeStability policy tools need to be established, improved and coordinated.
Challenges faced by independent financial stability policy instruments
First, ensure that the central bankPayment and clearing systemThe security and efficiency of financial stability is the primary issue.Because the payment and clearing system isFinancial infrastructureThe core of.The central banks of all countries strive to make the monitoring and management of payment and clearing systems cover all areas related to large capital transactions.But in China,People's Bank of ChinaIt is only responsible for the construction of the payment and clearing system and the formulation of relevant standards, while the supervision of the bank card business and the corresponding capital transactions areCBRCbe responsible for.This part is still away from the People's Bank of ChinaPayment systemRisk supervision outside the supervision has a certain adverse impact on the stability of the payment system.
Secondly, microprudential supervision It should be coordinated with macro prudential analysis. There is a domestic view that,financial regulationAnd financial stability. If every financial institution is good, then thisfinancial system Just fine;When one institution collapses, causing the collapse of other financial institutions,Financial systemThe crisis is coming.However, if the focus is only on the micro prudential supervision of a single financial institution, other more important risks at the macro level may be ignored.Research at home and abroad shows that the largestcredit risk Always occurs ineconomic cycle When the traditional indicator analysis of micro prudential supervision is applied, the risk seems to be minimal.
Thirdly, emergency liquidity assistance andmoral risk The problem cannot be ignored.Emergency liquidity assistance, also known as“Lender of last resort”Function is the most traditional tool used by the central bank to deal with financial instability.Because of the possibility of moral hazard, economists proposed various solutions, including imposing punitive interest rates on problematic financial institutions;Adopt the strategy of "constructive ambiguity" when providing emergency loans;Ask the financial institutions with problems to provideCollateralAnd organize the private sector to participate in the rescue of problematic institutions.However, China's institutional arrangements for emergency liquidity assistance are only in accordance with the Regulations on the Management of Special Loans from the Central Government by Local Governments issued by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, and the focus is also limited to the working procedures that emphasize the division of responsibilities and coordination of interests between the central and local governments, and the handling of individual cases.This reflects the principle of "constructive ambiguity" to a certain extent, but other measures to prevent moral hazard are still being explored.
Finally, the problem of crisis coordination and management cannot be avoided.The prevention of financial crisis should be based on early analysis and correction.Financial institutions should be established as soon as possibleRisk early warning systemAnd improve risk disposal measures, especially in the financial crisis caused by the risk of individual financial institutions, there should be some mechanisms and measures to detect the risk of financial institutions in a timely manner, so that financial institutions have enough pressure to correct as soon as possible when the risk increases or the asset quality deteriorates, which is called "timely correction measures".At the same time, forinternational financial crisis The unpredictability, infectivity and harmfulness of the financial crisis also require us to establish a long-term crisis emergency response mechanism to minimize losses and reduceRisk Management In the minimum range.We need to establish a financial crisis emergency organization system, formulate and deploy financial emergency response plans and organize their implementation.
Conflict and Coordination of Financial Stability and Price Stability
Basic tools for maintaining price stabilityMonetary policy tools, sometimes it can also be used to promote financial stability.In the long run, price stability and financial stability are mutually reinforcing.However, in the short term, when the central bank providesmobilityAssistance, correspondingly expandedBase currencyLaunch, withinflationThe effect will affect the price stability and the independence of the central bank's monetary policy.From the perspective of China's national conditions, the central bank is exercisingLender of last resortIn terms of functions, the decision-making basis is often not whether the problem institution will cause systemic financial risks, but whether the failure of the problem institution will lead to social instability, that is, when the central bankInsolvencyProvided byRefinancingFor cashing natural persondepositIn order to ensure social stability, the central bank to a certain extent replaced finance to perform the public function of maintaining social stability.The potential conflict with price stability caused by the "dislocation" of the lender of last resort function cannot be ignored.
Coordination mechanism between the Central Bank and various regulatory agencies
It is mainly the problem of information sharing mechanism and financial stability coordination mechanism. In the process of investigation, collection, sorting and analysis of various financial business activities and data, various regulatory agencies in China adopt different standards and focus, pay different attention to risks, and have low data transparency and low data quality.An effective information exchange mechanism has not been established between departments, which makes it difficult to share information efficiently and timely.However, the timeliness and accuracy of financial information are not only important to the central bankmonetary policyIn the process of formulation and implementation, it is more important to deal with the financial crisis.In addition, timely communication and coordination on issues related to financial stability are also very important. Since we have not yet established a coordination mechanism, the outstanding problems in the work include: first, when the central bank and various regulatory agencies have different views and evaluation methods on financial stabilityCentral Bank PolicyThe measures are difficult to implement;The second is the appearance ofLiquidity riskAs for the rescue of financial institutions that have withdrawn from the market, the Central Bank and various regulators may have different views on the risk assessment of financial institutions.
Establishment and improvement of financial risk compensation mechanism
International experience shows that,deposit insurance system The compensation system for securities investors and the compensation system for life insurance policyholders play an irreplaceable role in forming an effective market exit mechanism for financial institutions, reducing the burden of government assistance, curbing the "domino effect" caused by the collapse of individual financial institutions, and reducing systemic financial risks.Financial safety netIt should beprudential supervision Risk compensation mechanism and central bankLender of last resortThe three elements of function constitute.From the perspective of the development trend of China's financial industry, the establishment of market-oriented risk compensation mechanism is conducive to giving full play toMarket constraintsPower, preventionmoral risk , helping to prevent the transmission and spread of the risk of runs on financial institutions, thus establishing a "firewall" between normal financial institutions and problematic financial institutions.
There is still a debate on the establishment of risk compensation mechanism in the world.The experience of some countries shows that improperly designed and operated risk compensation mechanisms may also induce "moral hazard" problems, further exacerbating financial risks and financial crises.In fullmarket economyNext, investors should be responsible for their own investment behavior.Under the implicit government guarantee or full risk compensation mechanism, financial institutions may be involved in excessive risks, and depositors may have little or no incentive to supervise and restrict the excessive speculation of financial institutions, thus causing high moral hazard.In the past, in China, the government, as the "final guarantor" of state-owned banks, actually assumed the obligation to protect the legitimate interests of depositors.The state-owned banks rely on the implicit guarantee of the government, and there is an internal motivation for excessive involvement in high-risk and high-yield fields.Once there is a payment crisis, the risk will be transferred to the government.,From implicit government guarantee to exploring the establishment of a risk compensation mechanism with limited compensation, we will help overcome this problemmoral risk 。In addition, in our economyTransition periodWith heavy financial burden and insufficient public funds, the central bank should "spend money to buy a mechanism" and establish an effective risk compensation mechanism with other departments to reduce systematic financial risks.
