With the total global debt exceeding 100 trilliondollar(including personal debtCorporate debt, institutions andGovernment debt, half of which are from the United States and the United Kingdom), and the world (about 6.7 billion people) per capitaNet debtUp to $15000.This is amazing, but the other two figures are frightening: nearly 50% of people in the world live on less than 2.5 yuan per daydollarOne in every two children is struggling in poverty.
Previously,Quantitative easing And "debtMonetization”It is one of the main countermeasures for most developed countries to deal with the current situation.This means that these countries only usecashFloodingmarketTo pay its debts.
basisGAAPBy calculation, the total federal debt of the United States is up to 65.5 trilliondollar。This deficit not only exceeds that of the United Statesgross domestic productFour times, even more than the world's annual gross domestic product.In the past seven years, the average annual deficit of the United States has exceeded 4 trillion yuan. We believe that it is impossible for any tax method to raise so manycapitalTo make up for this deficit.
In the past few months, foreign buyers have continued to buy trillions ofdollarDebt.At presentfinancial crisisThe financial situation of the United States has deteriorated rapidly,SolvencyUnder the situation of significant recession, this move is increasingly questionable.
International Monetary FundA study just released shows that the United Statesloanandnegotiable securitiesThe loss is estimated to be as high as 2.7 trillion yuandollarThis estimate is twice that of six months ago, and the final loss estimate is likely to be raised. The situation is not optimistic.Given that more than half of the losses are from the United StatesbankandBroker, this estimate is slightly different from the conclusion obtained by the regulator after the stress test.
After two weeks of intense discussions, the US government announced itsbankDepartment's stress test results.The results show that the United StatesFinancial sectorStill in the "intensive care unit".in other words,Capital injection。According to federally published data,Bank of America（Bank of America）OfLack of fundsEstimated at 33.9 billiondollar, more than $50 billion lower than the original estimate.Wells Fargo Bank（Wells Fargo）13.7 billion yuandollar, lower than the original estimate of $17.3 billion.
Although the relative assessment results of stress tests will be more accurate after adopting a consistent valuation methodbankThe attitude of the absolute health status is too optimistic, and the test conclusion is still controversial.
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Countries around the world have several ideas when formulating response policies: first, launch several fiscal stimulus programs to expandAggregate demand;Second, introduce housing plan to restrainDefaultPhenomenon;The third is toBank stress testtogether withNon performing assetsThe solutions are implemented together.Through near zeroInterest rate policy, Quantification/creditRelaxation and a series of measures aimed at unfreezing currency andcredit market The unconventional policy ofmonetary policyGet richercreativity。
In recent weeks,marketandinvestorThe improvement of risk sentiment is also related to the globalcurrency、finance、creditandbankThere is a certain relationship between the promotion of solutions.
ChineseReal economyGloballyfinancial crisisChina suffered heavy losses, but domesticdemandIt is no longer as fragile as global demand.China is being pulled in two directions: on the one hand, exports are declining, and on the other handinvestmentBut it is rising. It is increasingly clear that the stimulus plan is achieving the expected effect,growth rateMay exceed expectations.Increase spending to supportconsumptionAnd repressiveconsumer demandAll show that China's recession is not a structural recession.
At present, China is experiencing an L-shaped recession (similar to Japanreal estateandStock market bubblePost crash situation)riskHas been reduced.However, unlike China, the western world is still in a serious and lasting recession.This recession is unlikely to stop in the third quarter of 2009, and we believe it will last until the beginning of 2010.
Even if there are major negative factorsEconomic depressionIt is not surprising that it is slowing down gradually.In a short time, ifEconomicsRapid decline without restraint, we will soon return to the state of a century ago.The United States is not the only country that cannot make ends meet.We are not the only ones trappedReal estate bubbleCountries (as well as Spain, Iceland, the United Kingdom and several Eastern European countries).
goldAs a safe haven, it can only be a transitional tool
Steady recoverygold marketIt shows that the future crisis is not completely unexpected.The highest gold price in history was 850 in January 1980dollar/ounce。On January 3, 2008, 28 years later, the record was broken.On January 24,Gold priceBreakthrough 900dollar/ounceOn March 14, it even climbed to 1000 dollars/ounce.
Initially, gold and othercommoditySame, rightCredit lineReduction and investment sellingcredit crunch Slow reaction.However, with the deepening of the crisis, gold began to surpass other investment varieties and reestablish its position as an "investment haven".The main reason is that,dollarCompared with the decline of other major currencies, this has raised the dollar price of gold and increased the attractiveness of gold to investors using dollars.
More importantly, gold is isolated fromfinancial system In addition, this makes investors seeksharesAndcreditmarketWhen sheltering and preventing turbulence, they (to some extent) re favor the "lost" goldassetsCategory.
The so-called lossassetsWhat exactly does category mean?It is obvious that gold acts asreserve currency It can only be a transitional tool.
