trade deficit

The phenomenon that the import amount of a country or region is greater than the export amount

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synonym trade deficit Trade deficit

The trade deficit is also called "trade surplus". Within a certain period of time Import volume greater than Exports Phenomenon. It generally indicates that a country's foreign trade is in a relatively unfavorable position.^[1]

The trade deficit reflects the merchandise trade Status is also judgment Macroeconomy An important indicator of health. In the first quarter of 2011, it was the first time in six years in China Quarterly trade deficit , alleviated to a certain extent RMB appreciation Pressure. Net exports When the value is positive, it is called trade black word balance of trade surplus 、 Trade surplus Or exceed. Net exports are negative It is called trade deficit, trade deficit or surplus.

Chinese name: trade deficit
Foreign name: Trade Deficits
Alias: "Exceeding the quota" 、 "Trade deficit"

Meaning: The total value of export trade is less than the total value of import trade
Related concepts: balance of trade surplus
Impact: Important indicators for judging macroeconomic operation
Field: Macroeconomics

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Basic Introduction

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When a country has trade Deficit Means the country foreign exchange reserve Reduction of International competitiveness Weakened, the country's foreign trade At a disadvantage. A large trade deficit will aggravate the outflow of domestic resources and increase foreign debt, affecting the normal and effective operation of the national economy. Therefore, the government should try to avoid a long-term trade deficit.

The trade deficit is published in the middle and late of each month Beijing Time 20:30。

Deep analysis

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If a country often runs a trade deficit, it must be sold in the market in order to pay its import debt Home Currency Pay the debts of the exporting country by purchasing the currency of other countries, so that, national income Will go abroad National economy Performance weakened. If the government wants to improve this situation, it must devalue the country's currency because Monetary Value Descending, that is, changing into a handle Export commodity price Reduce, which can improve the competitive power 。 Therefore, when the country's foreign trade deficit When it expands, it will weaken the currency of the country and make it fall; On the contrary, when there is foreign trade surplus, it is good for the currency. Therefore, the international trade situation is an impact Foreign exchange rate Very important factor. Japanese American trade friction This is fully explained. The United States has run a trade deficit with Japan for several years, resulting in Balance of trade The deterioration of. In order to restrict Japan's trade with the United States surplus ， U.S. government Put pressure on Japan Japanese yen Appreciation. However, the Japanese government did everything possible to prevent the yen from appreciating too fast in order to maintain a more favorable trade situation. Similarly, about RMB appreciation There are also factors of struggle in this regard.

The trade deficit depends on a country's net foreign investment, which depends on a country Loanable capital market Our savings and investment have nothing to do with the exchange rate.

Related concepts

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Study a country foreign trade The development mainly depends on the foreign trade regularly announced by the government Balance sheet 。

Generally speaking, the balance sheet systematically contains statistics indicating exports and imports, which can generally reflect a country's foreign trade and even national economic development in a specific period.

The foreign trade of a country consists of:

Sino US trade deficit

balance of trade surplus (Favorable Balance of Trade/trade surplus) Positive number express. Export>import; It is also called going beyond.

Unfavorable Balance of Trade/trade deficit/adverse trade balance, expressed as a negative number, exports<imports; It is also called surplus and trade deficit

trade balance (Balance of Trade), outlet=inlet

National data

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Japan

April 20, 2022, Japan Ministry of Finance The preliminary statistical results released show that due to the high energy prices and the obvious depreciation of the yen and other factors Import volume The trade deficit in goods of Japan in fiscal year 2021 (April 2021 to March 2022) reached 5.37 trillion yen (about 128.6 yen per dollar).^[4]

On October 20, 2022, the preliminary statistical results released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan showed that Japan's trade deficit in September was 2094 billion yen, a deficit for 14 consecutive months.^[7]

On February 16, 2023 local time, according to the preliminary statistical results released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Japan's trade deficit in January was 3496.6 billion yen, representing a deficit for 18 consecutive months.^[11]

U.S.A

On May 4, 2022, U.S. Department of Commerce Data shows that the US trade deficit in goods and services in March was due to strong demand for consumer goods, oil and industrial materials Increase month on month 22.3%, reaching US $109.8 billion, a record high.^[5]

On February 7, 2023, the US Department of Commerce released data showing that the US trade deficit in 2022 increased to 948.1 billion US dollars, a record high.^[10]

britain

On April 13, 2023, the statistics released by the British National Bureau of Statistics on April 13 showed that Britain's trade deficit had expanded to 23.5 billion pounds in the three months up to the end of February.^[12]

Germany

On July 4, 2022, the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany released data showing that the trade deficit in May reached about $1 billion, the first monthly trade deficit in Germany in 30 years.^[6]

France

On February 7, 2023 local time, the data released by the French customs showed that Energy price Rise euro yes Depreciation of the dollar Under the influence of other factors, France's trade deficit in goods in 2022 will reach a record 163.6 billion euros, compared with 2021 Annual increase 78.1 billion euros^[9] 。

the republic of korea

As of November 2022 On the 20th, South Korea's accumulated trade deficit was US $39.968 billion, the highest ever.^[8]

Cause analysis

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Unequal trade theory

The causes of the US trade deficit are various, US Congress trade deficit Commission of Inquiry In November 2000, he published a report on the causes of trade deficit investigation report 。 In their view, The main reason lies in the unequal trade relations between the United States and other countries , such as: other countries Non-tariff barrier ； Foreign goods Dumping against the United States; Foreign governments Domestic companies Subsidies; developing country Lower Wage level and Production conditions And the United States itself Enterprise core competitiveness The disappearance of. However, the report focuses more on external factors.

Twin deficit hypothesis

US trade deficit

U.S.A national economy Feldstein, chairman of the Research Bureau, emphasized that financial deficits The famous "twin" is proposed for the decisive role of the US trade deficit deficit Hypothesis: Against the background of huge fiscal deficits, Monetary authority In order to prevent inflation, we will not finance the fiscal deficit, so the fiscal deficit will lead to higher interest rates, foreign capital inflows dollar Appreciation, resulting in a trade deficit. This view was very persuasive in the 1980s, George W. Bush Since taking office, the United States financial deficits It also expanded year by year like the trade deficit, reaching 375 billion US dollars in fiscal year 2003, soaring to 415 billion US dollars in 2004, and is expected to reach the highest record of 521 billion US dollars in 2005.

However, it is difficult to fully explain the huge amount of money in the United States Deficit Because the fiscal deficit was greatly expanded from 1989 to 1992, but the trade deficit was narrowed; The fiscal deficit shrank year by year from 1993 to 2000. In 1998, it began to turn deficits into surpluses. In 2000, there was a high surplus of 237 billion dollars, but the trade deficit was expanding year by year. Even considering“ time lag ”Factors cannot fully explain the huge deficit since the 1990s.

Social demand hypothesis

Some scholars also emphasized that Chinese factors It plays a role in the current huge trade deficit of the United States Total social demand To analyze the causes of the huge trade deficit of the United States. This view has also been recognized by famous economists paul krugman Yes.

stay Macroeconomy In the system, one country Aggregate demand exceed Aggregate supply When, Balance of payments When the total demand is less than the total supply, the balance of payments is surplus 。 Therefore, the huge trade deficit of the United States since the 1990s is due to American economy The overall demand is too strong. Or the crux of the US trade deficit problem is Total expenditure Growth rate More than national income The growth rate of.

Currently, the United States Total consumption About gross domestic product 82%, and the total savings rate is very low, economic system There is a strong import demand in China. From the United States import In terms of categories, the growth of US imports is also mainly reflected in the rapid growth of consumer goods imports. The import of consumer goods in 2002 increased by 107.3% over 1994. from empirical research See, American scholars Stefan and Komuyi analyzed the relationship between the trade deficit and economic growth in 1996-1999, and believed that economic prosperity could explain at least 32% of the trade deficit.

Economic growth collateral

The above views all explain the causes of the US trade deficit from different perspectives. In our view, the root cause of the huge trade deficit of the United States lies in the continuous prosperity and exuberance of the American economy Total social demand Thus, a huge trade deficit appears with economic growth.

Advantages and disadvantages analysis

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Change of concept: from surplus to balance

Must change the pursuit balance of trade surplus Of traditional ideas We should strive for balance in foreign trade.

According to the traditional trade concept, export is to earn foreign exchange, surplus It is a good thing, while a deficit is a bad thing. This concept has long dominated China's trade policy And practice. According to statistics, by the end of February 2010, China has never had an annual trade deficit since 1993, and since April 2004, China has never had an annual trade deficit Monthly trade deficit 。 In fact, a country's foreign trade We should pursue a long-term basic balance of imports and exports, rather than a long-term trade surplus.

Long term excess may not benefit China

China is a big developing country balance of trade surplus Not all the benefits are brought.

First, the trade surplus will bring more and more trade disputes;

Secondly, although the trade surplus has increased foreign exchange reserve , but from resources Utility maximization From the perspective of, resources are not fully utilized;

Third, the continuous high amount surplus cause RMB appreciation The expectation, in turn, leads to the increase of net capital inflows, which further leads to the pressure of RMB appreciation;

Fourth, huge current account The surplus of Inflation rate An important factor in the rise.

Appropriately joining the Super League may not be harmful to China

On the contrary, the result of trade deficit is not all bad.

First, an appropriate deficit is conducive to alleviating short-term trade disputes and contributing to long-term stable growth of trade;

Main products of South Africa's trade deficit with China

Second, the deficit is actually equal to investment in purchasing productive equipment. As long as the investment project is properly selected, it can not only supplement some scarce raw materials in China, but also quickly increase throughput 、 Increase employment And increase Economic aggregate ；

Third, the deficit can be reduced RMB appreciation To slow down the speed of net capital inflow;

Fourth, the short-term trade deficit will help ease the pressure of inflation in China and increase China's monetary policy Of Operating space 。

From the practice of China's economic development, the years of rapid economic growth are all deficit or surplus Smaller year. Therefore, in the foreign trade On the issue, we should completely change our concept and give up Export earning foreign exchange . The traditional concept and practice of pursuing surplus should be established Balance of international payments Policy for the goal.

First sight deficit

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Basic overview

Issued by the General Administration of Customs on April 10, 2010 data display China's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2010 surplus It was 14.49 billion US dollars, a decrease of nearly 80%. The deficit in March was 7.24 billion US dollars.^[2]

The General Administration of Customs released China's foreign trade import and export situation in the first quarter of 2011 on April 10, 2011. Thanks to the rapid growth of domestic economy international market Bulk commodities Due to the sharp rise in prices and the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, China had a trade deficit of 1.02 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2011, compared with a surplus of 13.91 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2010.

data display

China's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2010 Total export value US $617.85 billion, compared with 2009 Growth over the same period 44.1%。 Among them, the export reached USD 316.17 billion, up 28.7%; Imports reached US $301.68 billion, up 64.6%.

Statistics show that in March 2010, China's total import and export value was 231.46 billion US dollars, an increase of 42.8%. Among them, exports reached US $112.11 billion, up 24.3%; Imports reached US $119.35 billion, up 66%.

According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, China foreign trade Restorative growth momentum is good. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, the total import and export value in the first quarter of 2010 increased by 8.2%; Exports grew by 3.4% and imports by 13.8%. The total import and export value in March 2010 increased by 13.1% compared with the same period in 2008; Exports grew by 2.9% and imports by 24.6%. from Ring ratio From the perspective of import and export in March 2010, compared with February Month on month growth 27.6%； Among them, exports grew 18.6% month on month and imports grew 37.3% month on month.

According to customs statistics, in the first three months, General trade The growth rate of import and export was higher than the overall growth rate of the same period, improvement trade Imports grew rapidly. China's general trade import and export reached 309.68 billion US dollars, up 47.9%, 3.8 times higher than the national import and export growth rate in the same period Percentage point 。 Among them, exports reached USD 141.31 billion, up 26.6%; Imports reached US $168.37 billion, up 72.2%. The trade deficit under general trade was US $27.06 billion. Over the same period, China's import and export of processing trade reached US $240.51 billion, up 38.5%. Among them, the export reached USD 151.69 billion, up 29.8%; Imports reached US $88.82 billion, up 56.3%. improvement trade Under balance of trade surplus US $62.87 billion, up 4.7%, equivalent to 4.3 times the overall surplus over the same period.

In my bilateral trade In the first quarter of 2010, the EU continued to maintain China's largest trading partner, Central Europe The total value of bilateral trade was US $101.47 billion, up 35.1%. During the same period, the United States remained China's second largest trading partner, with the total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States reaching US $78.11 billion, up 25.8%. Japan has a slight advantage over ASEAN and has become China's third largest partner again. The total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan in the first quarter was US $63.61 billion, up 38.2%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN reached US $62.91 billion, up 61.3%.

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Among the export commodities, in the first quarter of 2010, the export of mechanical and electrical products of China reached US $189.08 billion, an increase of 31.5%, 2.8 percentage points higher than the overall export growth of China in the same period, accounting for China's total export growth in the same period Total export value 59.8%. Same period, traditional Bulk commodities Exports grew rapidly, including clothing exports of US $24.04 billion, up 9.1%; Textile exports reached US $15.21 billion, up 26.6%; Footwear exports reached 7.26 billion US dollars, up 13.8%.

Among the import commodities, the main bulk Import of goods The volume has increased to varying degrees, and the average import price has generally rebounded significantly. According to customs statistics, Iron ore 160 million tons of imports, up 18%, and the average import price was US $96.3 per ton, up 20.7%; Soybean imports were 11.04 million tons, up 8.7%, and the average import price was $456.9 per ton, up 15.1%. In addition, the import of mechanical and electrical products reached US $137.76 billion, an increase of 49.8%, including the import of 179000 vehicles, an increase of 1.7 times.

Cause analysis

Due to the strong domestic demand, the import quantity and price of oil and other raw materials both rose strongly consumption structure The upgrade led to a sharp increase in the import of automobile products. In March, China's import growth rate was 41.7 percentage points higher than the export growth rate of the same period. In that month, there was a trade deficit of 7.24 billion dollars, which stopped China's 70 consecutive months since May 2004 balance of trade surplus Situation. The deficit in March is mainly from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea countries and regions The scale was 7.9 billion, 6.53 billion and 6.13 billion US dollars respectively.

Expert comments

Zhou Shijian The United States hopes RMB The demand for faster and more appreciation is unreasonable. This will be right China's economy , exports and enterprises have a huge destructive impact. He suggested that, RMB rate We should learn from the value of German currency“ Serpentine floating ”Experience to achieve narrow fluctuations, which has less adverse impact on China's economy and exports.

The customs analysis shows that the rapid growth of the domestic economy, the sharp rise in the prices of bulk commodities in the international market, the Spring Festival holiday and other factors are the important reasons for China's trade deficit in the first quarter.

Zhou Shijian said that the first quarter is the off-season for exports, and China's peak export season is concentrated from July to October, so the trade deficit in the first quarter cannot represent the future Import and export trade Trend, with Seasonality Weakening of factors, balance of trade surplus Will continue, but the growth rate will narrow and gradually tend to balance.

Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council of China economical operation During the investigation, it was emphasized that the focus of work should be on maintaining the balance between import and export foreign trade We should stabilize growth and optimize the structure of imports and exports. We should maintain the basic stability of foreign trade policies, accelerate the transformation of the mode of foreign trade development, and adhere to the principle of invigorating trade through science and technology, winning through quality and Market diversification , actively promote improvement trade Transformation and upgrading to comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade.

"China must increase Industrial structure adjustment " Zhou Shijian He said that while expanding imports, the export policy must remain stable, and there should be no major changes. "Exports cannot decline.".

Zhang Yansheng said, "China needs to complete the transformation of economic development and foreign trade development mode, and realize the transformation from relying on labor, land and environment Element driven Phase, change to scale and Innovation driven Phase. Moderate increase unproductive The import of products and the import of foreign equipment, technology and talents needed to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of trade are the direction for China to optimize its import structure. At the same time, China should strengthen traditional export projects and Emerging industries Export strength and increase Modern service industry Cross-border Service capability 。”^[3]

In the first quarter of 2011, China's general trade import and export reached 417.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 34.8%. The trade deficit under general trade was 45.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 66.5%. Over the same period, China's import and export of processing trade reached US $291.91 billion, up 21.4%. Processing trade balance of trade surplus US $77.11 billion, an increase of 22.8%.

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