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Credit scale

The indicators set by the Central Bank in advance to control bank loans in order to achieve the monetary policy objectives of the period

synonym Loan plan (Loan index) generally refers to the credit scale

Credit Scale“ volume of credit ”, Yes central bank To achieve a certain period of time Monetary policy objectives And the predetermined control Indicators of bank loans. It has two meanings: ① refers to certain point of time Total loans on balance , that is, the total stock; ② It refers to the increment of loans in a certain period. The loan scale here mainly refers to the latter meaning. It refers to the new loan issued to achieve the monetary policy objectives in a certain period of time Ceiling , also known as the total loan limit.

Chinese name: Credit scale
Foreign name: Credit Scale

Alias: Loan scale "
Status: It was China's monetary policy intermediary target

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Basic definitions

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Credit scale growth

Credit scale used to be China's monetary policy intermediary Goal is one of the important means to implement monetary policy. Due to different national conditions, political and economic systems Intermediary target There are also differences in terms of means and time, even in the same country. In many countries central bank It has been stipulated for quite a long time in the past commercial bank The limit of the loan. Some European countries used to control the loan scale as Monetary policy tools 。 many developing country Even more so. In contemporary western countries, macro-control is mainly to control the money supply. China once chose credit scale as monetary policy Of Intermediary target Because the commodity economy is still underdeveloped, the economic benefit mechanism and Regulation means It needs to be improved, Economic entity Not enough Hard budget constraints ， Deposit reserve ratio . Inhibition of interest rate changes Credit demand It has not yet played a significant role, so it is still necessary to expand or shrink the credit scale through planned regulation Money supply The purpose of.

Since 1984, People's Bank of China Clearly take the credit scale as the intermediary target of monetary policy. In the preparation and implementation of the national bank credit plan, first determine the total scale of credit, and Specialized bank The Head Office releases the information level by level. In general, except fixed assets Implementation of loan scale Mandatory control In addition, the total loan scale is implemented Guiding plan control Indicators. Multi absorption by banks deposit More loans, less Deposit taking Less loans should be issued. The total scale of credit was restored in 1985, 1988 and 1991 Mandatory plan 。

Credit scale indicators

Since 1989, the People's Bank of China has volume of credit It was renamed as the maximum loan control limit and implemented“ Limit Management The method of "deposit fixed loan" is adopted. The main contents are as follows: ① The maximum control limit of loans is the total "cage" of loans Loan limit Internally, it mainly relies on its own organization to absorb deposits to realize loans Ceiling 。② The loan ceiling shall be subject to "annual bottoming, quarterly monitoring, monthly assessment and timely adjustment". People's Bank of China The quarterly loan ceiling approved by the Head Office is the monitoring indicator, which is respectively determined by Specialized bank Head Office and People's Bank of China province , autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government Cities with separate plans Branches monitor by system and region. Each specialized bank head office and branch may adjust the quarterly maximum loan limit according to the change of the situation during the implementation process. If a branch of a specialized bank exceeds the approved quarterly maximum loan limit, it shall report to the head office of the specialized bank for approval; If the head office of a specialized bank wants to exceed the quarterly loan ceiling, it shall report to the head office of the People's Bank of China for approval. The implementation of "limit management" and "quarterly monitoring" is not only conducive to controlling the growth of loans in terms of total amount, but also conducive to further breaking the credit fund management Of“ Big pot rice ”, Resolve central bank package Professional bank credit funds To promote Specialized bank Raise funds from the society. Turn the relatively rigid means of controlling credit scale into flexible and selective policy tools People's Bank of China Be able to track and adjust the change and development of credit and make feedback adjustment.^[1]

Monitoring indicators

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The regulation target of new loans is inconsistent with the actual effect

The monitoring indicators of credit scale are as follows: 1 capital adequacy ratio Indicator: Total capital Average balance at the end of the month/ Risk weighted assets Average balance at the end of the month ≥ 8%

two Proportion of deposits and loans Indicator: ending balance of each loan/each deposit Ending balance ≤ 75%

three Proportion of borrowed funds Indicator: Borrowing funds Ending balance/ending balance of all deposits ≤ 4%/ Lending funds Ending balance/deposit ending balance ≤ 8%

Scatter Chart of New Loans and Deposits

four Proportion of medium and long-term loans Indicator: the remaining period is more than one year (including one year) Medium and long-term loans Ending balance/deposit with a remaining period of more than one year (including one year) Ending balance ≤ 120% 5 Proportion of single loan Indicator: total loans to the same borrowing customer bank capital The ratio of the total amount shall not exceed 10%, that is, for the same borrowing customer Loan balance /Items Total capital ≤ 10%, the total amount of loans granted to the top ten customers shall not exceed 50% of the bank's total capital, that is, the total amount of loans granted to the top ten customers/the total amount of various capital ≤ 50%

monetary policy

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The predicted growth rate of currency is inconsistent with the actual growth rate

Monetary theory generally believes that Intermediate target of monetary policy Three criteria must be considered: (1) testability, that is central bank Not only can we timely and accurately obtain relevant information Intermediary target And the connotation of the definition of intermediary target and extension It is relatively clear and stable, the central bank can make analysis based on it, and other social personnel can make predictions and judgments based on it; (2) Controllability means that the central bank operates its Monetary policy tools , which can accurately control the changes of intermediary target parameters; (3) Relevance, that is, the intermediary target selected by the monetary authority must be consistent with The ultimate goal of monetary policy It is closely related. In addition, the intermediary target must also be related to the specific economy financial environment Adaptation. Under specific conditions, due to different economic and financial environments, the central bank has different economic system backgrounds Monetary policy objectives The monetary policy adopted is different. Taking China as an example, China has taken the credit scale as the intermediary target of monetary policy since 1984. After years of practice, it has been proved that there is greater uncertainty commercial bank Of Shareholding reform They have become the main body of independent operation, and the central bank should not directly interfere with the Credit behavior 。 In addition, with the development and maturity of China's capital market Financing mode More and more diversified, credit is no longer the only form of enterprise financing. Therefore, credit scale control is no longer suitable for monetary policy Intermediary target 。

Take credit scale control as monetary policy At present, there are mainly the following problems with the intermediary target of:

New loans The control goal is inconsistent with the actual effect

1. The number of new loan regulation targets and Actual number The difference between them is large. By comparing the expected target and actual amount of annual new loans formulated by the Central Bank from 1998 to 2005 (excluding 2000), it is found that the difference between the two is large, and the average error value is 350 billion yuan.

2. Main factors affecting loan increment: deposit increment

It is generally believed that deposits come before loans. Of course, this is a controversial point of view, but from the perspective of increment, loan increment depends on deposit increment. This is at least Banking supervision The basis can be found on, that is commercial bank Of Deposit loan ratio Not more than 75%. The model study takes this as a prerequisite.

First, the monthly New loans And new deposits Scatter plot Draw, it can be judged that there is a relationship between the new loan and the new deposit linear relationship , according to the calculation of correlation coefficient Is 0. Using the 42 month data of new loans and new deposits from January 2003 to June 2006 for regression analysis, we can see that each month deposit About 55.4% of them are used for loans, which is basically consistent with the actual situation: first, our banking regulatory department stipulates that the deposit loan ratio of commercial banks should not exceed 75%, and second, in recent years, China's commercial banks Deposit balance With continuous expansion, a large amount of bank deposits can only be invested in national debt 、 Central Bank Bill Equilow income bond Or hold Excess reserve 。

Regression analysis also shows that the increase in deposits is the main reason for the increase in loans. From January to June 2006, Chinese financial institutions Foreign currency New loans It reached 2226.474 billion yuan, compared with The same period last year The increase in new loans was 53.3%, which was due to the fact that the new deposits absorbed by financial institutions in the same period were 3112.184 billion yuan, an increase of 434.486 billion yuan over the same period last year. New loans grew faster than new deposits.

3. Theoretically, the indicator of credit increase is highly uncertain

Theoretically, it is difficult for the central bank to control the credit scale as the control target. The central bank acts as monetary issue Organization, taking into account the Regulation means ( Legal reserve ratio 、 Rediscount 、 Open market operation Etc.), which can affect the Money supply , while credit belongs to money demand , not money supply 。

There is a certain correspondence between money supply and credit supply

money supply There is a certain corresponding relationship with credit extension. In terms of increment, there is the following relationship between them: △ M2=△ DK+△ QT, where: △ DK means new RMB loans; △ QT means others money demand , for example government bonds 、 Corporate bonds 、 Financial debt And other investment tools.

so New loans Affected by △ M2 and △ QT simultaneously. When △ M2 is determined, if the amount of △ QT is very small, then △ DK will become larger, and there is a relationship between them. From the main items included in △ QT, such as National debt issuance The central bank is unable to control and decide the timing and issuance, so it is very difficult for the central bank to control the scale of new loans.

If the central bank Money supply Listed together with the credit scale monetary policy Of Intermediary target , which may lead to the following situations:

A The goal and work focus are disordered. While focusing on the money supply, while focusing on the credit scale, both want to exert their efforts and control, which will inevitably lead to neglecting one thing and losing another, so that any goal can not be achieved well;

B Power offside, direct interference commercial bank And require the latter to increase or reduce credit. As discussed above, the credit extension of commercial banks depends first on the absorption of deposit If deposits increase, it will try to lend out to obtain deposits and loans Interest margin And investment income. The deposits absorbed by commercial banks are generally divided into three parts: first, one part will be set aside as a reserve for deposit customers to withdraw at any time, and its proportion depends on Legal reserve ratio And general reserve requirements of banks; Deposits after deducting reserves (i.e. "disposable funds") will be used for loans and investments. Commercial banks may use all the disposable funds for loans or investments（ national debt , financial debt Central Bank Bill And may also allocate funds in loans and investments.

Back to the theoretical analysis of money supply and demand money supply The Shanghai Central Bank can directly regulate, but money demand Especially for the allocation of monetary capital commercial bank Functions and responsibilities of. Commercial banks will determine the allocation of disposable funds between loans and investments according to their own preferences and objectives. In short, there are four State-owned commercial bank Gradually complete Shareholding reform In the case of increasingly becoming a commercial entity with the goal of maximizing profits, central bank If you continue New loans As the control goal, scale will not only interfere with the independent operation of commercial banks, but also for itself, it is tantamount to putting an invisible shackle on itself, which will be more and more difficult to achieve.

4. In actual operation, the scale of credit supply is increasingly restricted by other financing means

Figure 1 Financing of non-financial sectors

From the actual Financing structure Look, Credit financing Just various Economic entity One of a variety of financing means, Credit financing It is complementary to other financing means. If other financing means provide more financing, the scale of credit financing will be reduced accordingly. Since the establishment of China's capital market in the early 1990s, the financing forms of China's social investment have become increasingly diversified bond etc. Direct financing It has become an important financing method available to enterprises, and is not limited to issuing shares in China, especially in recent years Overseas listing The amount of financing exceeds that in China. Due to the volatility and periodicity of the capital market, the financing amount of stocks and bonds is often unstable. When the capital market is active, enterprises Direct financing The amount will be more, on the contrary, when the capital market is depressed, the difficulty of direct financing will increase, and the funds obtained will be less; Correspondingly, credit financing will also change accordingly. As can be seen from Figure 1, bank credit in China Non financial institutions The proportion of sector financing is very unstable, with some years high and some years low. In this case Enterprise financing In the case of increasingly diversified ways, bank credit supply will not be stable, but also difficult to accurately predict and control.

Utility evaluation

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In terms of measurability, under the planned economy, volume of credit As Intermediate target of monetary policy The required data statistics are basically complete. In terms of controllability, although governments at all levels intervene in loans, enterprises and local governments' demand for over planned loans will form“ Backward forcing mechanism ”However, as long as the central government deems it necessary, it should take measures to control the loan scale.

Credit scale evaluation

In terms of correlation, under the planned economy, there is a high correlation between the loan scale and economic growth and price rise. Enterprise funds are mainly supplied by banks, loans increase, enterprise production scale expands, economic growth accelerates, and enterprises Production scale The expansion means the increase of labor input and cash expenditure such as wages, which leads to consumption Price rise 。 In addition, the loan scale directly affects Total social demand 。 Under the planned economy, loans are increasing Money supply The only channel for, volume of credit It has a very high correlation with the money supply. The amount of money supply is crucial to the total demand.

Loan scale as Intermediate target of monetary policy There are limitations. When there is a fairly stable relationship between the loan scale and the money supply, the loan scale will be economic activity There is stable correlation. Without a strict planning system, this relevance has also been lost. The controllability of loan scale is based on the planned economy Credit funds The distribution system has become single storage control with the change of the system volume of credit Difficult and unreasonable.

The above research can draw a basic conclusion, that is, the credit scale (annual New loans ）Inappropriate for monetary policy Of Intermediary target The central bank should not and should not control the scale of credit. Newly revised Law of the People's Bank of China Article 5 stipulates that "the People's Bank of China shall Money supply , interest rate exchange rate And other important matters stipulated by the State Council shall be implemented after being submitted to the State Council for approval. "It can be seen that the law has not clearly endowed the People's Bank of China with the function of controlling the credit scale, nor has it explicitly New credit Quantity is the intermediate target of monetary policy.

In fact, financial liberalization and economic globalization Under the basic trend of economic activity The links between the two are becoming increasingly loose, and the monetary authorities are also increasingly difficult to control the money supply (i.e., the controllability is declining). In this context, the credit scale continues to serve as Intermediate target of monetary policy Has become impractical. In fact, the policy practice of various countries shows that the flexibility, transparency and credibility of the target system have become the key factors in the choice of intermediate targets of monetary policy.

Of course, the indicator of credit scale is useful for observing the operation of macro-economy. We cannot ignore it because it is not suitable for being an intermediary target of monetary policy. To a certain extent, it is one of the ways to observe China's macroeconomic operation barometer 。

New measures

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1、 To maximize New loans The scale is really used to support the development of small enterprises. various banking Financial institutions should conscientiously implement the policy of "holding while holding" and "treating differently", enhance their consciousness and initiative, increase the adjustment of credit structure, improve the allocation structure of asset maturity, and adhere to the combination of gross fine tuning and structural optimization to ensure that New credit The total amount is used to improve the credit structure and really increase the credit input to small enterprises. First, separate regulations^[1] The module shall be assessed separately. The growth rate of small enterprise credit should not be lower than all Loan growth On the principle that the increment is not less than that of the previous year, the newly increased credit scale of small enterprises shall be arranged separately and assessed separately. We should strengthen the structural adjustment of asset stock. After the loan is recovered, we should increase efforts to invest in key areas and weak links in the economy, and optimize the stock Credit structure 。 The second is to list customers separately, manage and count them separately. It is necessary to grasp the focus, rhythm and strength of macro-control. According to the national industrial policy and environmental protection policy, small enterprises conforming to the industrial policy, environmental protection policy, as well as small enterprises with market, technology and development prospects should be taken as key support objects, and a separate list of small enterprise customers supported by branches at all levels should be listed, so that customer managers can accurately grasp the marketing and credit approval. The third is to price separately and float reasonably. We should support the sustainable development of small enterprises while preventing risks, fulfill social responsibilities while improving our own benefits lending rate stay Risk pricing On the basis of reasonable floating. It is not allowed to take the opportunity of issuing loans to sell insurance, funds and other products, attach unreasonable loan conditions, and charge unreasonable fees in disguised form.

2、 We should further enhance the financial service function of small enterprises. various banking Financial institutions should select appropriate business models and organizational structures based on their own reality“ Six mechanisms ”Implement and realize small enterprises Credit Commercial sustainable development. All large and medium-sized banks should enhance their service awareness according to Small business financing The organizational structure and Process reengineering Promote credit extension for small enterprises Division system Pay attention to long-term mechanism construction. To establish specialized small enterprises credit management Departments and professional teams shall establish systems and methods for classified management, separate account accounting and separate assessment, and establish credit approval, risk management, incentive mechanism, talent training and internal control system 。 All local banking institutions should give full play to their functional advantages in serving small enterprises, devote themselves to county and community financial services according to their own characteristics, and make full use of the increased credit resources to increase credit support for local small enterprises on the premise of meeting the requirements of prudential supervision and ensuring sound operation. various banking Financial institutions are relatively active in the private economy private capital In regions with strong financial demand, institutional outlets can be appropriately added; Appropriate expansion in accordance with the principle of "low threshold and strict supervision" Village Bank And other new financial institutions to accelerate the approval process. At the same time, we should further standardize and guide private lending Activities.

3、 More efforts should be made to promote financial innovation. First, innovate small enterprises Loan guarantee Mortgage mode, exploring rights and cash flow within the scope permitted by laws and regulations pledge Such as inventory, transferable forest rights and Land contract right etc. mortgage , as well as intellectual property, accounts receivable, etc pledge loans , promote Equity pledge loan Etc. The second is to develop on the premise of strengthening supervision and controlling risks Trust financing Lease financing Bond financing And trust and lease based financial products Expand financing channels for small enterprises. We should gradually promote small enterprises on the basis of standardized management Securitization of credit assets Business. Third, we should develop and innovate trade financing means for small enterprises, especially expand letter of credit To explore trade financing under non letter of credit and encourage the use of general accounts receivable to support small enterprises, including development account receivable financing , provide Financing funds 、 collection from debtors , sales account management Credit sales control as well as full protection against bad debts Equal synthesis financial service ； encourage Warehouse receipt pledge 、 Pledge of cargo right Financing and expansion Supply chain financing 。 Fourth, strengthen interaction with insurance companies. take Bank financing With insurance companies credit insurance Close integration, banks rely on transaction documents Policy And compensation Assignment Agreement And other documents to provide trade financing for enterprises and expand the Small business financing Ability. Five is to Credit products 、 Fund settlement 、 financial products 、 E-banking Such products are effectively combined with trade financing products, bundled marketing, and provide comprehensive financial services for small enterprises. At the same time, we should strengthen the financing of small enterprises Financial Advisor And consulting services to provide financial services for small enterprises, and help small enterprises standardize their operations, effectively avoid all kinds of economic and financial fraud, and ensure the safety of funds.

4、 Scientific assessment and timely disposal of small enterprises Non-performing Loan 。 banking Financial institutions should adhere to the principles of risk coverage and sustainability to reduce financial transactions Possible moral risk 。 According to its own credit management and risk-prevention With advanced technology and accurate methods Small business loans Risk classification, reasonable formulation of non-performing loan control indicators and non-performing loan ratio for small enterprises on the basis of scientific measurement, and separate assessment of non-performing loans for small enterprises. According to the new Financial enterprises NPLs The write off management measures shall be implemented to write off the loan losses of small enterprises in a timely manner according to law.

5、 We should give full play to the promotion role of various supporting policies. Banking financial institutions should make full and reasonable use of the powerful opportunity of fiscal and tax policy adjustment, strengthen credit support for small enterprises, and actively help exit Enterprises do a good job Fund settlement And other services. Comprehensive play Direct financing 、 Indirect financing 、 compensation for risk-taking , financial and tax support, etc financing channel Adapt to different industries, different performance and different profit levels Small business financing Demand to reduce the demand of small enterprises credit market The degree of dependence of. Regulators and banks should actively coordinate with relevant departments to accelerate the construction of credit system, explore financing models supported by credit construction, and improve the financing environment for small enterprises. Accelerate the establishment of credit collection system, rating release system, default information notification mechanism and Disciplinary mechanism for dishonesty , research and develop small enterprises credit system Management measures to provide an effective platform for information sharing and dissemination.

6、 We should earnestly change our work style and strive to do practical things and good things for small enterprises' financing. Each unit, each banking Financial institutions should change the problems of simple working methods and impetuous style. Leaders should take the lead in going deep into small enterprises to do research and research, so as to be close to business, customers and market. We should really work hard to really do practical things for the development of small enterprises, do good things, solve urgent problems, and provide timely help. Starting from the bank's own development strategy and market positioning, we should cultivate a number of excellent small enterprises as loyal ones in the future High quality customers Groups. The heads of units and institutions must go out of the office, out of the conference room, go deep into the grassroots, go deep into the enterprise, carry out research activities in factories and stores, earnestly investigate and understand new situations and problems, listen to the opinions of the grassroots, listen to the voice of the enterprise, facing each other We will discuss ways and research measures to create a good bank image, win social returns, win the trust of the public, and shoulder social responsibilities and make greater contributions to social and economic development with real services, real feelings and real support.

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