Monetary economy is capitalism Developed into global monopoly economic form ； It is for the direct purpose of market exchange, including stock and securities circulation and currency exchange economic form 。 Shares, securities, foreign exchange money market After establishment Fund capital , a fund is formed within the fund capital oligarch And oligopoly funds and their monopoly, so the monetary economy as a new economic form has formed. [2] It can be said that the functional existence of money has swallowed up its material existence. It can be seen that in the exchange, the gold and silver currency that once had substance has been sublimated to the imaginary currency in the concept, as long as Exchange process A lot of payments occurred in, as positive and negative numbers offset each other, there is no need for real money to participate, even paper Value symbol There is no need to participate in it. Currency has become a conceptual accounting unit, that is Virtual currency 。 So what monetary economy emphasizes is that Production field The exchange of goods and currencies other than. [3] （1） Specify monetary materials, that is, determine which commodities can be used as Coin material 。 （2） Specify the monetary unit, that is, specify Monetary unit The name of the and the Value of the currency unit. （3） Provisions Primary currency and Fractional currency Main currency is the basic currency in circulation currency The secondary currency is a small denomination currency below the primary currency unit. （4） Freedom casting Restrictions on casting, that is, provisions on the right to cast money under the circulation of metal money. (V) Limited compensation and legal tender That is, how large the currency is Ability to pay 。 (VI) Preparation system 。 Monetary systems are mainly as follows: silver Single standard system It's silver Reporting currency It is a monetary system with a long history. gold and silver bimetalism It is gold and silver coins that are legally recognized as Base currency Of Monetary system 。 gold standard The system is based on gold Reporting currency A monetary system consisting of Gold standard 、 Bullion standard and Gold exchange standard 。 （1） Gold coin standard system: gold coins can be freely minted; Fractional currency and bank notes can Free convertibility As gold coins, gold can be freely exported into the country. Gold coin standard system: it is a relatively stable monetary system and played a role in the development of capitalism Facilitation 。 However, with the development of capitalism, the stable factors of gold coin standard system were destroyed. (II) Bullion standard and Gold exchange standard It is an incomplete and unstable monetary system. Bretton Woods system Yes dollar Centered capitalism Monetary system 。 Dishonoured credit monetary system It is a kind of metal free Base currency The monetary system of Credit currency by Legal compensation currency 。 Our monetary system is RMB system 。 The RMB system belongs to Dishonoured credit monetary system , by People's Bank of China Manage and regulate according to law Western Currency Total quantity index Reform of: Monetary aggregate index of modern western mainstream countries Statistical mode , starting with Monetarism Of Empirical research 。 Since Friedman's famous book, "The History of American Money - 1867-1960", he has adopted the amount of money accumulated step by step according to the order of liquidity, and divided M1 、 M2 and M3 Since then, economists have followed suit. Later, American Federal Reserve System The same method is also used to prepare Total amount of money The indicators have undergone many important reforms. Established by the US Federal Reserve in 1982 Statistical standards The adjusted data dates back to 1959. Economists from other countries and Monetary authority The monetary aggregate index is basically compiled along the same pattern. Because this simple sum of monetary aggregates has been questioned by theory and practice, western scholars have put forward many reform plans and carried out large-scale experimental work. The reform idea of western scholars is that since different currency components are incomplete succedaneum , you can use its variance indicator to adjust the amount of money. most Scheme selection The difference indicator of Yield Or holding currency opportunity cost 。 Here are nine reform plans (methods). (1950s and 1970s). Since Gurley and Show (1955) proposed liquidity financial assets It is a substitute for currency and may affect monetary policy After the hypothesis of Quasi currency Monetary Vicarious elasticity On research. The general method of this scheme is to establish Narrow money demand function , based on the yield and income of various quasi currencies Explanatory variable , regression calculation money demand The substitution elasticity of. Feige and Pearce (1977) summarized relevant research literature, and 16 independent studies concluded that average value Yes: Time deposit -0.13， Savings deposit -0.31， treasury bill -0.06, income 0.57. At that time, there was no clear suggestion on how to adjust monetary indicators. two utility function Scheme (Chetty, 1969). This is a unique approach in the study of alternative elasticity, based on the utility function. It assumes that the pursuit Utility maximization Monetary assets of holder , allocate the total amount of its monetary assets between currency and quasi currency, the currency yield is zero, the price is 1, and the yield of quasi currency in the period becomes its Discount rate , and determine the Budget line Slope. Since there is actually more than one quasi currency, this method needs to measure the partial substitution elasticity between money and quasi monetary assets, and then calculate the total amount of money weighted by the partial substitution elasticity. Approximate amount of money established by Chetty Empirical formula Yes (based on U.S. data from 1945 to 1966): Where, M’ A is the adjusted monetary aggregate indicator, M yes Narrow money , T is time deposit, MS yes Mutual savings bank Savings deposit, SL is Savings and Loan Association Savings deposits. Chetty's empirical analysis indicate, M’a Income of Speed ratio The unadjusted indicators are much more stable, and the GNP prediction is consistent with the unadjusted indicators, but the adjusted indicators standard deviation enlarge. Bisignano (1974) extended this method to real money, other real financial assets Durable goods And consider tax, depreciation and Capital gain factor. His empirical analysis proves that Chetty and other research reports greatly overestimate the substitution elasticity of quasi currency. Since the 1970s, financial market The turbulence and financial innovation The outbreak of "," made the concept of quasi currency vague, and the calculation of alternative elasticity lost stability and feasibility, thus losing the practical significance of Plan 1 and Plan 2. [4] 3. Weak Separation Approach (1980 -). In the 1880s, some scholars began to study the monetary aggregation necessary condition Problem (Barnett, 1980; Varian, 1982). They believe that economic aggregation must meet the principle of weak differentiation, and the marginal substitution rate of each commodity in the aggregate does not affect other commodities except the aggregate. If this principle is satisfied, the consumer utility function U (m1,..., mn, q1,..., qm) can be rewritten as U [u (m1,..., mn), q1,..., qm]. The partial utility function u (m1,..., mn) can independently seek to maximize under the given conditions of total monetary expenditure. Varian (1983), Swofford and Whitney (1987) found that some monetary assets (cash C Current deposit DD、 other Cheque deposit NOW、 Money market mutual fund MMMF, etc.) durable consumer goods This shows that M1 or M2 is an acceptable monetary aggregate. Belongia and Chalfant (1989) reported that there is weak differentiation between different portfolios of monetary assets. They are C-DD, C-DD-NOW, C-DD-NOW-MMMF。 This result implies that there are a variety of monetary aggregate indicators to choose from. Today, the weak division method has become a supplementary technology for other monetary indicator reform programs. For example, Barnett (1980, 2000), Anderson et al. (1997), Binner et al. (2002), Elger et al. (2004) all used the principle of weak division in compiling their monetary aggregate indicators.
4. "Divesa Index Money" (1976 -). This method also relies on the microscopic utility function theory. Barnett (1978, 1980, 1984, 2000) has made a great impact in this field. He believes that monetary assets are durable goods that provide monetary services. The opportunity cost of holding monetary assets is also called "user cost" cost ）。 The proportion of the expenditure on holding each kind of monetary asset (the total user cost of this kind of monetary asset) in the total expenditure on holding all monetary assets is the weight of this kind of monetary asset in the total monetary asset. Obviously, if the liquidity of a monetary asset is strong, then Yield Low, and benchmark interest rate The relative weight in the total amount of money will increase if the difference is large. So far, some institutions and scholars in various countries still use this index for research. Later in this article comparative analysis Adopted, St. Louis, USA Federal Reserve Bank The continuously released MSI (refer to Scheme 9) is a famous sample of the currency of the Divessa Index. Western scholars use a variety of metering method A lot of empirical analysis has been carried out on the Divesa currencies of many countries (for example, Barnett, Offenbacher and Spindt, 1984; Chrystal and MacDonald, 1994; Schunk, 2000; Serletis and Molik, 2000; Stracca，2003）。 Their conclusions are basically the same: there are advantages and disadvantages between the Divessa Index and the traditional monetary aggregates. The currency of the Divessa Index has not gained obvious advantages, and is basically equal. Generally, the broader the monetary aggregate (such as M3 ）, the better the performance of the currency of the Divessa Index. This conclusion is embarrassing! Because the currency of the Divessa Index has taken care of Narrow money In the narrow sense of money, it should have an absolute advantage. This makes people doubt the correctness of the design theory and method of the currency of the Divessa Index. 5. Fisher Ideal Index Number, 1985. Spindt (1984, 1985) also used the Divessa index to improve the monetary aggregate index. He advocated using the transaction speed of money as the weight. However, the currency transaction speed he chose is the "net value" of monetary assets Turnover ”That is, the speed at which money is used for final revenue transactions. We know that in the currency Turnover It includes all kinds of transactions. He extracted the final income from each currency component a turnover ； Calculate the "net turnover rate" of each monetary asset accordingly; Then use the net turnover rate to Weight , to calculate the weighted currency Aggregate index 。 Spindt not only distorts the real Velocity of money , extracting the final income from the total transaction volume reliability It is also questionable. His empirical research shows that under normal conditions, this currency index is similar to the simple aggregate M1 The performance of is strictly consistent; It is relatively stable under abnormal conditions. Obviously, his plan is not superior to the traditional monetary aggregate with theoretical defects under normal circumstances. 6. Currency Equivalent Index (1991 -). This method adopts the interest rate and standard of monetary assets Market interest rate To calculate the weighted monetary index. Rotemberg et al. (19911995) established the calculation method of the index. Barnett believes that the index is inferior to the Divessa index in measuring monetary services. Sertetis and Molik (2000) denied that any monetary index (including the index currency) has the meaning of being the subject of monetary policy. seven artificial neural network Artificial Neural Networks, ANN , 2000-）。 ANN imitates the principle of natural neural network and is composed of interconnected processors information processing Structure that can accept and output information. ANN usually uses a specific computer program Set up and can store model parameter 。 Gazely and Binner (2003) used this technology to optimize the currency of the Divessa index. The method is to use ANN technology to obtain output（ inflation ）For the input (the five currency components that make up the Divessa currency Autoregression Items and Time variable ）Experience of Sensitivity coefficient ； Then the sensitivity coefficient is used as the weight to calculate the new currency of the Divessa index; If the new Divessa currency is substituted into the ANN model to replace its five components, inflation can be predicted. In this way, the weight of the Divessa currency, which used to rely on interest rate calculation, is replaced by the sensitivity coefficient of the ANN technology. Binner claims that the Divessa coins generated by ANN technology are superior to the traditional Divessa coins. 8. Power factor analysis Scheme (Dynamic Factor Analysis, DFA, 2001 -). DFA is Multivariate statistical analysis The observed variable is expressed as the sum of the function of multiple factors and the residual value. In addition to the observed variables, the multiple factors that determine the observed variables and the weight of each factor need to use the model Simultaneous estimation Come out. Gilbert and Pichette (2003) introduced DFA technical study On the issue of the total amount of money, transactions and savings are regarded as two determinants of each monetary component. According to the preliminary empirical analysis, they believe that the total amount of money compiled with DFA technology is the sum of output and Price forecast The best indicator of. nine central bank The supported monetary indicator reform plan. Divessa Index currency gains Bank of England And the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Bank of England continuously compiles and publishes the currency of the Divessa Index. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis also continuously compiles or publishes the Monetary Services Index (MSI), which is also a sample of DiVISA's currency; The bank also compiles a currency equivalence index. The index compiled by these two central banks with the new method is only for reference by officials and other researchers, and does not replace the compilation and publication of traditional monetary indicators (the Federal Reserve is responsible for traditional monetary indicators in the United States). Economists working in the central banks of various countries have also received the general support of the central banks. They have extensively participated in the proposal and experimental activities of the monetary index reform by using the resources of the central banks and become reformers The backbone 。 Since this paper will compare momentum money, traditional money and MSI, this paper introduces the Preparation method 。 The formula for preparing the nominal MSI is (Anderson et al., 1997): (1) Where, represents item i of period t Nominal currency Composition= 1/2 () represents the average expenditure share of monetary asset i held in period t. The total expenses for holding all monetary assets are: (2) Where, represents the total expenses of holding all monetary assets in period t;=, Represents the nominal user cost of holding the nominal currency component i in period t (represents the real value in period t Life index , represents the return rate of standard assets in period t, represents the nominal user cost of holding i monetary assets in period t) By comparing the above the West Reviewing the reform plan of major monetary indicators, we can summarize the following points: 1. Most schemes regard currency as an asset rather than Means of circulation 。 So they rely on money Asset price - interest rate (or user cost), to calculate alternative elasticity (or quantity adjustment weight). 2. Fisher ideal index is an exception. Spindt uses the transaction speed of currency as the weight. However, the "net turnover rate" he extracted lost the real transaction speed of currency economic information 。 3. Divessa index currency is the most influential scheme at present. However, most empirical analyses have proved that compared with the traditional amount of money, the Divessa index has no absolute advantage. The Divessa Index Narrow money The failure in the competition shows that there are problems in its theoretical basis. four artificial neural network The scheme is vague in theory. The sensitivity coefficient of experience is affected by those factors without theoretical explanation; The various monetary components as inputs are the quantity of money, excluding the factor of monetary speed; The completely real monetary velocity variable in economic reality cannot be equal to the monetary quantity in the econometric model. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient and the specific Output (e.g Inflation rate ）It is corresponding, so there will be different sensitivity coefficients and different monetary quantities for different macro variables. This goes against the original intention of monetary index reform. 5. The dynamic factor analysis program takes transactions and savings as two determinants of each currency component. This is equivalent to assuming that the amount of money already includes information on transactions and savings. This is obviously wrong. The transaction function of money is mainly reflected by its speed. The amount of money lacks the economic information included in the speed of money.
6. So far, no reform plan has theoretically emphasized the significance of real monetary speed to currency, no new monetary indicator has absolute advantages over traditional indicators, and no reform plan has been widely recognized by academia and monetary authorities. The traditional monetary aggregate is still the monetary indicator on which monetary authorities and most economic research rely. The reform of monetary aggregate index in western countries has been in trouble for half a century. What is the reason for this outcome?
root
The root of the dilemma of reform is the West Mainstream economics The existing theoretical defects. Due to the space and subject limitations of this paper, the author can only briefly explain the issues related to this paper. 1. At the micro level, western scholars lack a dialectical understanding of money. Western scholars generally believe that, Calculation unit , circulation media and Storage means It is the three basic functions of money. According to these three functions, there are three main problems in the understanding of money by western scholars. First, there is a lack of deep understanding of the nature of money. Money represents value and is the measure of value; Monetary form The change of cannot change this essence in any way. In view of the change of modern monetary form, western scholars will Value scale Change to calculation unit; And this function is often ranked last, satisfied with explaining this function in isolation; Neglected that representative value is the essence of money and the basis for the existence of other functions. Second, the lack of three Monetary function Dialectical understanding of the relationship. The three functions of money are Quality and quantity It is interdependent. The essence of the unit of calculation is to represent value, and the amount of representative value depends on the amount of money, the speed of money and Economic transactions Comparison of total amount. The amount of money is equal to the total amount of storage means, and the product of the amount of money and the speed of money is equal to Trading medium Functions played. Therefore, the determination of the amount of money representing value depends on the total amount of storage function and transaction function. This dialectical relationship shows that although we can discuss the function of money, the representative of money Value It involves the interaction of three functions and Economic aggregate Of dynamic equilibrium It can only be solved in the macro field. Third, there is a great debate among western scholars about which is the main means of circulation and storage. The author believes that this debate conceals the core issue. The core problem is that every monetary function must have appropriate quality and quantity Expression 。 Western scholars just chose the wrong way to express liquidity. The essence of storage means is assets, which can be expressed in terms of the amount of money and the rate of return of money; The essence of transaction media is liquidity, and speed is its soul. The user cost of money is just the rent price of money. How can it reflect the speed of money and the amount of transactions undertaken by money? On this issue, classical economics Our wisdom is still worthy of praise. As a durable goods in the economic sense, money Holding costs (Value) can be expressed as user cost. But the user cost (value) of money and the use value Is different! The use value of money as a circulation medium is the continuous circulation of representative value, which is far from the user cost in terms of quality and quantity. Most importantly, the economic information contained in currency circulation is far from being represented by the cost of the holder. 2. Macroscopically, there are serious problems in western mainstream economics Structural defects 。 Although Keynes' General Theory has made important contributions to economics, it basically negates the role of money and overemphasizes the role of interest rates in Macroeconomics (Tao Jiang 2000a). Monetarism Restored the importance of monetary quantity, but abandoned the True speed (Tao Jiang, 2003, 2004a, 2004b). Western mainstream economics has jointly abandoned the real monetary speed, which has endangered the objective understanding of the importance of money. In the context of such theoretical structural defects, discussing the reform of monetary indicators will not only completely ignore the real speed of money (income speed is not the real speed of money), but also lead to more doubts about monetary indicators. 3. On Microeconomics Western scholars also lack scientific boundaries in relation to macroeconomics. scientific research Different objects may have different performance rules. In physics classical mechanics The application scope of Material movement ； quantum mechanics The scope of application is microscopic, high-speed material movement. The boundaries are clear. Principles of Economics The application should also be limited. Money is fundamentally different from other commodities. In all economic exchanges, money is extremely special. Modern currency Completely relying on the compulsion of law; its marginal cost Is decreasing and far below the representative value; Money is the most common No difference With the fastest transmission speed and the lowest transmission cost; The representative value of money only depends on the comparison of various economic aggregates; The real and meaningful speed of money can only be observed in the macro field; wait. Because of so many particularities, the study of money cannot be simply determined by the principles of microeconomics. We can see from the reform plans of western scholars that they simply use the utility function theory to analyze the liquidity of money, and equate user costs with money services (or use interest rates as money services Alternative indicators ）。 Since monetary services include liquidity services, the user cost is also a specious reflection Money liquidity The strength of. Mainstream economics ignores an extremely simple fact: the essence of circulation means is movement, which must be expressed by vectors such as velocity or momentum. Finally, the simple transplantation of economic principles led to a serious misunderstanding of money, which led to the serious disadvantage 。 It is precisely because of these deep-seated theoretical defects that western scholars cannot convert the real monetary speed into weights to establish a monetary aggregate indicator with speed characteristics. This is the fundamental reason why western scholars cannot succeed in the reform of monetary aggregates. Moreover, after half a century of consuming huge economic resources, there is still no sign of self liberation of western scholars. under these circumstances, Nankai Scholars have the responsibility to express their different understanding of currency, and it is necessary to propose a unique scheme for the reform of monetary indicators. 
