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James Chanos

President of Knicks Mutual Fund

James Chanos, the world's largest short fund company Kynikos Associates LP Of CEO James Chanos, President of Kynikos Associates, born in 1958, graduated from Yale , the head of the world's largest short hedge fund.

Chinese name: James Chanos
Foreign name: James Chanos

date of birth: 1958
Position: President of Knicks Mutual Fund

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one Character experience
two Key achievements

Character experience

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In October 2000, Chanos began to study safely 。 At that time, he found that Enron used Accounting method In fact, it overstates its revenue. In 2001, Chanos began Short Enron, with the exposure of a series of situations, has also constantly increased his Short position , and Chanos finally became famous.

Chanos is good at finding and studying those value Overestimated shares 。 Chanos believes that shorting three types of companies is more likely to make profits: those industries that seem to be still vibrant but are about to face serious crises (great booms that then go bust); Victims of new technologies; As well as those fashionable product companies.

James Chanos grew up far away from the sphere of influence of Wall Street. He is the eldest of the three brothers. His father is a second-generation Greek American who owns a dry cleaning business in Milwaukee chain store ； His mother is the office director of a steel factory. In the fifth grade of primary school, his father led him in stock market , he was fascinated. While studying at Yale, he soon gave up his premedical studies and chose the economics course. Although Chanos is slender and highly myopic, he does not want to be a bookworm. He runs for the post of chairman of the dormitory association committee and holds a drunken party for his hockey team friends after the season. "He is one of the few special people who can light both ends of the candle at the same time without being burned." His former roommate, Keith Elan, now a Yale hockey coach, said, "When he wants to hold a party, he will spend a week preparing it. He also introduced me to Bob Seger."

After graduation, Chanos moved to Chicago and joined a brokerage firm called Gelford Securities. stay Career In the early days, he dug into the undiscovered scandal and used the media to influence market In the summer of 1982, he began to follow the Baldwin United Insurance Company, the darling of Wall Street at that time price of stock It has been rising, and there are many big companies like Merrill Lynch among the owners of the company. However, Chanos was suspicious. After being hinted by a disgruntled insurance analyst, Chanos wrote a research report, suggesting short selling Baldwin's shares. His opinion made Wall Street so angry that Martin Lipton, a lawyer of Powerhouse, even called him boss , threatening to prosecution He.

In New York, Forbes Magazine The writer Dick? Stern heard about the fight between Chanos and Baldwin. Stern began to investigate the story. He flew to Chicago, where Chanos explained to him financial analysis 。 Later, Stern met Baldwin's CEO After meeting, he put forward the questions that Chanos suggested to ask him. "Jim gave us a summary," Stern recalled. When Stern continued to work on that article, in fact, Chanos played the role of a key background information provider. Stern called Chanos in the Chicago apartment late at night, playing back the recording of his conversation with Baldwin's CEO, while analyzing it. In December, Forbes published Stern's article, and the conclusion leans towards Chanos. A few months later, Baldwin collapsed and had to submit a scale of 9 billion dollar Of Bankruptcy petition 。 At that time, it was the largest company bankruptcy in history, and the Baldwin case made Chanos famous. At the age of 26, Chanos was recruit In the spring of 1984, Chanos began to analyze Michael McKenzie's Junk bond Empire, "that is another holy war of mine," he said. There was a time when private detectives were sent to 92nd East Street to search for garbage cans outside Chanos' house.

Key achievements

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financial crisis The stock price fell to the lowest point in 70 years, almost all investor They were all in a mess, even lost their money, but some people are the best at extracting chestnuts from fire. For this "company undertaker", the bankruptcy of the enterprise is a great news. The more bankrupt companies, the richer he will become. Now, Chanos is the most successful hedge fund manager on Wall Street. Many star fund managers were hit hard by the financial crisis. Steve Cohen in charge of SACCapital lost 18%, and Ken Griffin of Citadel was even worse, fund It has shrunk by 44%, even wisely predicted Lehman Brothers The bankrupt David Enhoe was also not spared, and watched his Greenlight Capital decline by 26%. At the same time, Chanos' short position strategy won him a generous return of 50%. He now manages about $7 billion. When a group of Wall Street refugees were busy selling art collections and putting beautiful mansions on the market to sell in order to tide over difficulties, Chanos was busy buying. He spent $20 million to buy a three story building on 75th Street, next to Fifth Avenue.

As a short position Chanos made his living mainly by borrowing and selling shares of companies he thought would be in trouble. When the stock market was in turmoil, he bought back those stocks that had shrunk, returned them to the people who lent them to him, and pocketed the difference. In other words, Chanos is a corporate undertaker. When a company dies, he gets out of it profit 。 If there is a great plague and the enterprises fail collectively, he will be even richer.

In the face of the most miserable stock market in 70 years, hedge funds and 401(K) ( old-age pension ）Scarred account It seems that no one can laugh. Short selling The investor Jim Chanos is at the peak of his career Net value of fund Up 50%. In these days, it seems hard to find good news even on the red pages of the Financial Times. But on the morning of November 4, 2008, in the Kynikos joint venture located on 55th West Street, Jim Chanos, chairman of the world's largest short selling hedge fund, was reading an article in the newspaper with an uncontrollable excitement, This was told by one of his colleagues via email, with the title of "Goldman Sachs Fund lost $990 million in 10 months".

Chanos was so happy not only because he had nothing to do with the loss, but also because he had other secrets. Mark Spike is his neighbor in East Hampton and the department responsible for the billions of dollars of losses of Goldman Sachs Managing Director Now he has finally got the punishment he deserves. There is a path from Spike's house in Further Lane to the beach. Because the road is narrow, he decided to widen it in June 2007. One afternoon, Spike sent a worker to bulldoze the bushes between his house and Chanos's house. The road was broadened, but Chanos felt insulted. "I hope this is not a sign that other senior staff of Goldman Sachs will take some action when the market becomes unprofitable for us short sellers." He said so in an email to friends at that time. This letter was disclosed to New York Post It is reported that Chanos withdrew nearly $3 billion from Goldman Sachs' trading account a few months after the Post disclosed the matter, and Goldman Sachs lost 50 million annual fees (Goldman Sachs did not agree with these figures). Chanos also filed a lawsuit against Spike. One year later today, when Chanos sits Bloomberg Terminal In front of the plane, looking at the report on the Financial Times that Spike's hedge fund suffered a disaster, a smile appeared on his face. He recommended the news to his friends staff And financial journalists.

Maybe share with Chanos Goldman's frustration It's interesting, but you must realize that he and you are in a very different background 401(k) The loss rate of the account is his fund Yield 。 Chanos is now the most successful hedge fund manager on the controversial Wall Street. Now all the popular stars of hedge funds have suffered losses. It is said that Steve Cohen of SAC Capital lost 18% in 2008; Ken Griffin of Citadel Fund lost 44%. Even David Einhorn, who foresaw the collapse of Lehman, his fund Green Light Capital also lost 26% of its net value in 2008. The short position of Chanos helped him earn 50% of the return, and the capital he now manages has reached 7 billion dollars. According to the estimation of Trader Monthly, his income exceeded 300 million dollars in 2007, and by December 2008, he could also earn the same amount of income. When many "victims" on Wall Street had to be busy selling their art collections or taking the house that had been used as a reward to them to the market for sale, Chanos was buying it. In the summer of 2008, he bought a three storey building located on 75th Street, not far from Fifth Avenue.

As a short seller, Chanos makes a living by borrowing shares of a company and selling them if he thinks that the company is going to be in trouble; After the stock price falls, he buys back these problematic stocks and returns them to the lender to earn the difference. In other words, Chanos is a bit like a financial funeral worker. When the company dies, he makes money. Even if the "epidemic" breaks out, he can still become rich.

One afternoon last month, in the conference room on the 8th floor, Chanos sat on the brown leather chair beside the oval table. In the conference room, there was a blackboard covering the whole wall, on which his analysts painted all kinds of potential investment targets. There are several bookcases standing on the adjacent wall. These bookcases form a library of financial disasters, such as Bubble: How to survive the impending real estate collapse and how to make profits, and Overcome the Crash. Chanos was very excited that afternoon because he had just read a report, which pointed out that despite the official statistics of China economic growth 8%, but China's electricity consumption fell by 4%. He saw the implication that Chanos believed that China would be the world economic crisis Next victim. In the past few months, Chanos has accumulated short positions of some infrastructure companies. These companies are competing to build new highways, bridges and tunnels in China. Now he is waiting for the stock of these companies to fall.

Observing the transaction records of Chanos in the past six months is like watching Economic collapse Slow motion playback of. Since the summer, he has been bank and real estate agency A short position has been established on because at this time subprime The crisis in the field has begun to turn into an all-round economic collapse. Since 2006, Chanos has established considerable short positions in civil housing builders such as KB Home and WCI, which turned South Florida and Phoenix into nightmares in the suburbs of cities. After summer Price In Bear Stearns's dream, Chanos took the opportunity to finance And short positions in real estate stocks (the size accounts for about 30% of its portfolio). At the same time, Chanos turned to short the construction and engineering companies because he expected Credit crisis It will spread into a full global recession, and the overheated economy in many places, such as China and Dubai, will cool down. In addition, he also short sold the art collection craze shown by those hedge fund peers. Last month, he short the shares of Sotheby's Auction Company. When Sotheby's share price fell from 60 yuan to 8 yuan, Chanos ended his short position Position 。 "It's not very difficult," he said triumphantly.

Unlike Jim Simmons of SAC Capital and Renaissance Technology, Chanos is not engaged in computer fast trading of quantitative models. He always asks his analysts to dig deeply into a company financial reports Find out the details in the management Results and expansion profit Of Finance Trick (he especially questioned the use of market price The operation of accounting principles, because it can make the company exaggerate the value of illiquid assets).

Once Chanos finds a problem, he will fully intervene, while establishing short positions, while waiting for other people in the market to agree with his view. Of course, this job became easier in 2008. Because every field was injured, Chanos's short selling on a large scale Position It has brought him a high success rate. As he was early aware of the financial crisis, the stock prices of the selected short sellers fell dramatically. After extracting 2% management expense Later, if the growth of the net value of the fund exceeds the decline of the market, Chanos can get a commission.

But if the market is not like this Diving Down like, the game will become much more subtle. Unlike other hedge fund managers, Chanos has long used a powerful weapon - the media. Chanos is a "media worker," according to New York Time Joe Nokolo, the business columnist of, introduced that Chanos is "a person who is willing to talk with reporters, and journalists will be attracted by him, hoping to get some information from him". You can think that Chanos is a bit like John McCain who ran for president in 2008. The media is the key. In this atmosphere of information exchange, Chanos has established valuable relationships with many journalists, who also value his opinions, report his views and ultimately help him become rich. Like politics in Washington, the game of Wall Street is also full of information that needs to be identified. A correct tone of voice usually means millions of dollars in profits and losses.

In order to reveal his ideas to the market, Chanos often sends his research reports to reporters he trusts, or sends interesting stories he finds to reporters and others by e-mail fund manager 。

At the beginning of 2008, this relationship has brought about huge side effects. In March, after the fall of Bear Stearns, Wall Street's troubled CEOs attacked short sellers like Chanos, accusing them of manipulating the media and spreading harmful gossip to reporters in order to profit from the bank's collapse. Chanos understands the "pursuit" of those who announce the end of the party. "Those who lose money always have to blame others," Chanos said. In the past few months, he has fought back many times. In July, he sent an email to reporters, with a link to an article about the British authorities' plan to deprive short sellers of their London Stock Exchange "It is disgusting that although the most serious credit collapse in modern financial history has not yet ended, various regulatory authorities' cooperate with each other 'and praise each other for their brave gesture towards short sellers."

Those ordinary Wall Street Trader What will happen to those who have experienced glory and are now suffering losses? Chanos felt a bit regretful. "The marginal people around the trading desk have no skills," he said. "If they don't trade derivatives, I don't know what else they can do. Next, they have to drive a taxi."

Chanos sees himself as a person who tells the truth. "I have always understood the schadenfreude in dealing with short selling, and I know that no one likes short selling," said Chanos self Persuade, short selling is actually monitoring the dynamic financial system, and it is one of the few forces in the market to monitor and balance. " He didn't do this job for charity. "For selfish enlightenment," he said, "I will not do it for free."

If Chanos is more or less like a Wall Street deserter, this feeling is also mutual. Chanos despises the elite culture of Wall Street. He calls himself a "wealthy liberal". "I'm shocked that everyone shows a sense of power just because things haven't gone wrong," he said. One afternoon in early 2008, at his home in the Upper East Side of Syd, Chanos sat on a milky chair in the living room with an air of ease. He jokingly called this room "the bachelor's cabin". A few years ago, 50 year old Chanos separated from his wife. Now he has become the symbol of the Hampton Club. Those hedge funds competitor Behind the scenes, Ashley Dupr é (the call girl who appeared in the sex scandal of former New York Governor Spitzer) was a frequent guest of the Chanos family, according to the Post. "Uncle Jim", as she reportedly called Chanos ("I never introduced her to that official", Chanos told me). Chanos has just driven back from his office in East Hampton. He looks like a member of the South Fork he has always wanted - fashion designer jeans, red striped Faconnable shirt, navy sports jacket. Chanos has well-developed pectoral muscles (his trainer told me that he can bench press 300 pounds). His weather beaten face shows crisscross landscape features, with thick blond hair hanging in front of his forehead like waves.

Although he also dined at Michael Hotel, was also the board member of Browning School and the main Democratic donor, Chanos regarded himself as an outsider on Wall Street. "Most of me social relations Are not in the business circle. " He said.

James Chanos - short selling China

Chanos, president of the world's largest short fund company, Nicholas United Fund and Wall Street's "short master", said: "China's Real estate bubble More than 1000 times more serious than Dubai. "

Hedge funds are struggling to short Chinese stocks

Despite the global economic crisis, China's economy is likely to achieve a high growth of nearly 10% in 2010. Therefore, more and more people believe that capital Will pour into China, Chinese stock market and real estate The whole line will be red.

But there are also people forecast This situation may come to an abrupt end, and you can bet on the prediction that "China's bubble will burst".

according to New York Times It is reported that some hedge funds are short selling China's stock company , is running. Short selling is to use the stock of a company to sell and then re sell at a low price buy-back The investment method of earning price difference.

Chanos, the "bearish master", entered the ranks of Wall Street billionaires in 2001 because he accurately predicted that the American energy enterprise Enron would go bankrupt. He began to study the method of short selling Chinese enterprise stocks in the summer of 2009.

China does not allow short selling in the stock market, and strictly restricts foreign investors investment 。 Chanos said: "Planned short selling (with China demand Relevant) shares of cement, coal, iron ore and construction related enterprises. "

Chanos had predicted Enron Tyco international ltd In an interview with American Economic Television, he said: "China's real estate bubble is more than 1000 times worse than Dubai."

Chanos began to study the Chinese economy. At present, 26 people in his company collect information related to China in New York and London respectively. He has already taken short selling measures, hoping to benefit from the "China collapse". As China has taken strict precautions against foreign hot money entering A-shares, Chanos cannot cast a vote of no confidence in China's economic prospects with his funds like Enron. However, it is reported that the short seller is paying attention to cement, coal, steel and other enterprises tied to the fate of China's economy through other ways, waiting for opportunities to bet.

Chanos emphasized: "Compared with the right Asset price The main reason for bubbles is the overestimation of credit and the excess supply of credit. At present, there is no place on the earth Credit excess supply It can catch up with China. "

Britain The Economist Warn of the danger of China's property market bubble, and the credit surplus is Excess liquidity , refers to too many Money supply These surplus funds need to find an investment outlet, so there is investment Overheated economy Phenomenon, and inflation Risk of.

The Economist, a British weekly, also warned that the bubbles in the world economy, especially in emerging markets such as China, were in danger of bursting.

The Economist was in the United States in 2007 subprime crisis Warn multiple times before occurrence. In September 2008, the global financial crisis finally broke out.

Dubai's actual debt has exceeded 170 billion US dollars

Niu Dao, an independent real estate commentator, said in an interview“ Hot money It has been in the property market and stock market for a long time Speculation 。 Dubai's hot money is only $60 billion. Over the past few years, the hot money stranded in China is at least $600 billion. If all these hot money fled at one time, the bubble bursting effect would be much more serious than that of Dubai. "

In fact, Dubai's GDP in 2010 was only 254 billion dirhams (about US $69.6 billion), while China's GDP in 2010 was US $60483 trillion (Announced by the Bureau of Statistics on January 20), China is almost 100 times the size of Dubai. Moreover, China does not have Dubai's high debt that is several times the size of its own economy. Therefore, the hot money of more than 600 billion dollars should not be too nervous if you want to make trouble in China. But it is China's tradition to be prepared for danger in times of peace. So, we should despise it strategically and attach importance to it tactically, Relevant regulatory and decision-making departments should pay enough attention to it.

The New York Times of the United States published a report titled "Short Selling China" on the front page of its business page, saying that James Chanos, who had accurately predicted the collapse of Enron, predicted that China would collapse soon and believed that "China's real estate bubble is 1000 times more serious than Dubai". In order to curb speculative house purchases, the Chinese government also issued a notice a few days ago, specifying that the down payment on second house loans should not be less than 40%.

The New York Times reported that Chanos is now working to break the myth of one of the largest conglomerates: Chinese companies. He warned that "China's overstimulated economy is heading for collapse, rather than the sustained prosperity predicted by most economists". He believes that, supported by a flood of speculative funds, China's real estate bubble "looks 1000 times worse than Dubai's situation, or even worse". He stressed that the biggest bubble in China was excessive credit, not the overvaluation of asset values. "No country in the world has a more serious problem of excessive credit than China".

Rogers, an investment master, said that it was ridiculous that a person who could not spell "China" correctly ten years ago should now make a prediction about China. He did not believe that there was a bubble in China.

Chanos dares to speak out, so he must be prepared. If his capital wants to short China, it is obviously a matter of luck. But he may be the pioneer of the international hot money consortium to short China. It is unknown whether he is feinting this time, or is he just trying to hide the truth, or is he facing a "financial war" as a prelude to the game The Chinese people should take it seriously and study it in order to defend their country.

Chinese insightful people and relevant departments should also shoulder the mission entrusted by the times for the country and the people.

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