Bear Market, also known as bear market, refers to the long-termDownward trendOfstock market。The general trend of price changes is to keep falling, characterized by sharp falls and small rises.
The overall operating trend of the short market is downward. Although there is a rebound, it is lower than one wave. Most people are losing money. Although there are occasional opportunities, they are fleeting, difficult to catch and difficult to operate.China Stock MarketNo,Short mechanismInvestors should try their best to avoid re entering the short market,hold out 。Margin trading、Stock index futures、commodity futures There is a short selling mechanism, which can be used to make profits.
1. The market is generally optimistic, the popularity is boiling, and the investors are crazy to rush in, which is the omen of the coming short market.
The formation of the short market can be divided into three stages:
The first stage is the "shipment" period.It is really formed in the formerBull marketThe last stage of.At this stage, farsighted investors realized that the enterprise's surplus had reached an abnormal high and began to speed up the pace of shipment.At this time, the turnover is still high.Although there was a tendency to gradually decrease when it rebounded, at this time, the public was still keen on trading, but they began to feel that the expected profits had gradually disappeared.
The second stage is the panic period, when people who want to buy begin to retreat, while people who want to sell are eager to sell.The trend of price decline suddenly accelerates to almost vertical degree, at this time, the proportion gap of trading volume reaches the maximum.After the panic period is over, there will usually be a relatively long secondary rebound or horizontal change.
The third stage is formed by the selling of those who lack confidence.During the third stage,Downward trendNo acceleration."Noinvestment valueOfPenny stock”In the first or second stage, it may have dropped the part of the bull market that rose before.Stocks with good performance continued to decline because of theholderIt is the last to promote confidence.In the process, the decline of the short market at the last stage is concentrated on these stocks with good performance.The short market ended with a lot of bad news.The worst-case scenario has been anticipated and realized in the stock price.Usually, when the bad news comes out completelyEnd itBefore, the short market has passed.
judge
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As for the judgment of the bottom of the short market, a contingent approach can be adoptedIntegrated approachThat is to establish a comprehensive analysis system whose standards are revised with historical changes and can adapt to the changed status quo.This analysis method is also suitable for balancing the market.
Contingency analysis system consists of two parts.
1．fundamental theoryThe basic theory of measurement is to give the approximate time and price (target time and target price) of the bottom on the basis of the overall analysis of the trend, and based on the market changesActual timeAdjust the target time and target price with the actual price, so that the basic theoretical measurement can finally accurately indicate the time and range of the bottom.The methods include: (1) determiningWindow of Time。Determining the window of timebasic principleOnly 2-3Cycle(Low point to low point) Calculate the average number of cycle days and increase the number of days in the last cycleWeight (The method is to add the average period and the near period and divide by two).After that, every prediction cycle should be carried out according to this principlemobile computing And get the new number of time windows.
When determining the cycle low point, attention should be paid to distinguishing the rebound bottom and reverse bottom.Small cycle is formed between rebound bottoms, and reverse bottoms are formedBig cycleCycle, both are used to predict the time when the rebound bottom and reversal bottom occur.
2. Window for determining amplitude.The range window is defined as the range of 5% above and 5% below the target price of the stock index.The following methods can be used to determine the falling target price: one isMorphological analysis；Second,Empirical method, that is, according to theDeclineThe ratio (that is, the ratio of the decline to the rise of the rising market before the decline) is used to calculate the decline ratio of the current period. Therefore, the greater the rise of the previous round of rising market, the greater the decline of this round.
3. Window of correction time and window of amplitude.The principle of correction is that the time and extent of stock price decline can be complementary and replaced.That is, when the price actually dropped is close to or more than the target price, and the time window has not yet expired, the time window should be closed or adjusted immediately, and at the same timeMarket conditionsConsider lowering the target price;On the contrary, when the time window has expired and the actual price is far from the target price, the time window should be moved forward and the target price should be raised according to the market conditions.This adjustment process can be repeated stage by stage.
operating principle
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The operating principle of the short market is not to follow the rising trend, bargain hunting, fantasy and embraceFluke psychology。
Specifically, don't buy stocks that look like they are going to rise, and don't fail to hit new lows. It is applicable to shareholders who are not among the top players,Oversold stockYou must go after the rebound is in place. Always remember that it is a rebound, not a reversal.
Operation strategy
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Phase I
Short market
The initial stage is the third stage of the bull marketLast paragraph, often appears inMarket investmentWhen the atmosphere is at its highest, the market is absolutely optimistic,investoryesAftermarketChange is totally unsuspecting.All kinds of good news, true or false, are everywhere in the market, and the company's performance and profitability have reached abnormal peaks.Many enterprises accelerated their expansion during this period, and the news of mergers and acquisitions spread frequently.While the vast majority of investors are crazy about the rising trend of the stock market, a few wise investors and individual large investors have begun to withdraw their funds gradually or are on the sidelines.Therefore, although the market trading is very hot, it has gradually cooled down.At this time, if the stock price rises further and the trading volume cannot keep up, a sharp fall may occur.During this period, when the stock price falls, many people still think that this decline is just a callback in the process of rising.In fact, this is the beginning of the stock market crash.
Phase II
At this stage,stock marketIt will trigger when the wind blows“panic selling”。On the one hand, the marketHot spotThere are too many people who want to buy, but they hold back because they are hard to choose.On the other hand, more people are eager to sell, exacerbating the rapid decline of stock prices.When allowedCredit transactionIn the market ofspeculatorThey suffered even more. They were often forced to sell because of the pressure to repay the invested capital, so the stock price fell more and more quickly.After a round of crazy selling and sharp drop in stock prices, investors will feel thatDowntrendIt's a bit excessive, because listed companies andeconomic environmentThe current situation has not reached such a pessimistic level, so the market will have a big rebound and rebound.This medium-term rebound may last for several weeks or months, and the range of recovery or rebound is generally one-third to one-half of the total decline of the whole market.
The second phase of the bear market.After a period of medium-term rebound,economic situationAnd listed companies,corporate performance Decline, financial difficulties.It's hard to tell the true from the falseBad News And then came one after another, which further hit the confidence of investors.At this time, the whole stock market was filled with a pessimistic atmosphere, and the stock price fell significantly after the rebound.
Phase III
The stock price continued to decline, but the decline did not intensify. Because those stocks with poor quality had almost fallen in the first and second periods, there was little possibility of further decline. At this time, due to the collapse of market confidence, the falling stocks were concentrated in the stocks with good performanceblue-chip shareandHigh-quality stockOn.This stage coincides with the beginning of the first stage of the bull market. Foresighted and rational investors will think this is the best opportunity to absorb. At this time, they can buy low price and high-quality stocks and get rich returns when the market recovers.
Generally speaking, the bear market is shorter than the bull market, accounting for only one-third to one-half of the bull market.However, the specific time of each bear market is different, because the market and economic environment will be different.Recalling the period from 1993 to 2009,Shanghai China、Shenzhen Stock ExchangeHaving experienced the sharp rise and fall of the stock price, it is a complete cyclical process from bull to bear, and then from bear to bull.
Related differences
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Short market
The biggest difference between the long market and the short market is that the total transaction value is different.Upward trendInvestors can gain profits in the short or long term when they buy stocks, soInvestment willingnessThe transaction was flexible, and the total value of transactions was also constantly breaking new records under the active change of hands;In the downward trend, when investors buy stocks and then plan to sell them, the stock price has dropped for a while, which affects buying, and the transaction naturally becomes more and more light, and the total transaction value shrinks.This kind ofnatural phenomenaThe similar result of expanding when heated and shrinking when cooled is also a technique that is fully used by large families and craftsmen.
(1) The stock price trend in the bull market is: up (the total transaction value increases) → down (the total transaction value shrinks) →Disc gear(shrink again) → rise.
(2) The stock price trend in the short market is: falling (the total transaction value decreases) → rebounding (the transaction value increases) → trading position (the transaction value decreases) → falling.Specifically, the total transaction value is a measurementStock marketChangeablethermometer, the speed of increase or decrease of total transaction value can be inferredEmptyWar scaleSize and stock indexUps and downsThe amplitude of.That is to say, the total transaction value continues to expand, indicating that new funds continue to pour into the stock market, which is the driving force behind the rise of stock prices.
(1)Stock indexThe relationship between the transaction value and the transaction value is like a snowball. To make the stock index rise, the transaction value must continue to increase.
(2) In the bull market, the starting transaction value of each stock market is not large, and it expands with the increase of the index, until it can no longer expand, the stock price index begins to decline, that is, the highest transaction value corresponds to the highest stock price index.Sometimes, although the stock price index continues to rise, the transaction value cannot be higher, and the rising market is likely to end in a few days, which is consistent with the "volume first, price second".Sometimes, at the end of a long-term decline, a huge amount of transfer transactions occur, which makes the transaction value suddenly increase, and the stock price index has risen for a while since then.
(3) In the short market, the transaction value of each segment of the falling market has sharply shrunk, indicating that the buying spirit is declining, and the stock price index is declining, until the transaction value can no longer shrink, the decline will end, that is, the lowest transaction value corresponds to the lowest stock price index.Sometimes, although the stock price index continues to decline, the transaction value no longer shrinks, and the decline is about to end.
(4) The highest and lowest transaction values are determined by the popularity of the stock market at that time, and there is no fixed standard and formula.Only from the bull market orshort positionmarket size Speculate the future potential.
When investors understand the relationship between transaction value and stock index, if they canMoving average theoryMatch with the transaction value to establish "band is gold"trading system , you can predict the rise or fall of the stock price index from the changes in the longer term transaction records, and reduce the error.
