Environmental prediction refers to activities that predict the impact of social and economic activities on the environment and changes in environmental quality.It is the basis of environmental decision-making and management, and an important measure to implement the policy of prevention first.The forecast includes: the development trend of population, economy, science and technology;The speed and scale of energy consumption, resource development and land use;Growth and distribution of pollutant discharge or pollution load;Environmental quality and ecological damage;Economic loss and harm to human health, as well as investment and benefit analysis required to achieve different environmental goals.[1]
Chinese name
Environmental prediction
Foreign name
Environmental prediction
Headword
Environmental prediction
Meaning
Basis for environmental decision-making and scientific environmental management
(1) Environmental quality assessment.The environmental quality assessment of the planning area is the basic work and basis for environmental prediction. Through the assessment, many basic data can be provided for scientific prediction.
(2) Social and economic development goals.Environmental problems are mainly caused by economic development. Predict the impact of economic development on the environment when it reaches the planning goal, and propose a reasonable development planning model on this basis.
(3) Urban development planning, regional development planning and development planning of energy, transportation, power, water conservancy, communication and other industries.
basic principle
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(1) Integrity of data: prediction is different from speculation, which is arbitrary and irresponsible, and prediction must be based on thorough investigation and detailed statistical data.
(2) Accuracy of data: the basic data must be accurate and complete, and error analysis must be given for the prediction results;Due to the three factors of data, prediction technology and the quality of prediction personnel, the prediction results cannot be perfect. There are always errors, but there are large and small errors.
(3) Reliability of methods: analyze, evaluate and test all methods and models.
(4) Testability of results: the prediction should have clear conclusions, and this conclusion can be tested.
Working procedures
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① Determine the purpose and task of prediction;
② Collect and analyze relevant data;
③ Select forecasting method;
④ Establishing prediction model;
⑤ Carry out prediction calculation;
⑥ Identification and analysis of prediction results[2]。
Forecast content
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Prediction of social and economic development
The focus of social development prediction is population prediction.
The prediction of economic development focuses on the interrelation and changes between and within the economic system and the environmental system, focusing on the prediction of energy consumption, gross national product, and gross industrial output. At the same time, it makes necessary prediction and analysis on the economic layout and structure, transportation, and other major economic construction projects.The data and conclusions of social and economic sectors (especially the planning sector) should be selected for economic development prediction.
Pollution generation and emission prediction
The prediction content shall be selected according to the requirements of the environmental planning indicator system. The focus of the macro total amount prediction of pollutants is to determine the reasonable pollutant discharge coefficient (such as the pollutant discharge per unit product and 10000 yuan industrial output value) and elastic coefficient (such as the elastic coefficient between industrial wastewater discharge and industrial output value), so as to obtain the corresponding pollutant generation and discharge.The main contents include:
① Prediction of air pollutant emissions;
② Waste water discharge forecast;
③ Prediction of noise and waste residue pollution;
④Agricultural pollution sourcesPrediction - application amount and accumulation amount of pesticides and chemical fertilizers in the land, and pesticide content in grains, vegetables and fruits;
Environmental quality prediction
According to the diffusion, migration and transformation laws of pollutants in the environment and relevant influencing factors, predict the total amount, concentration and distribution of various pollutants in the atmosphere, water, soil and other environmental elements, and predict the possible new pollution types and quantities.
Ecological environment prediction
Predict the change of main ecological indicators. The main contents include: rational development and utilization of water resources, urban green space area and environmental impact, land use status and urban development trend.
The basic idea of prediction is to first predict the changes of main ecological indicators under the original operating conditions (or without effective measures).Then, according to the economic development and urban construction planning, predict and analyze the changes of the main ecological indicators, and then comprehensively analyze the possible ecological environment changes under various conditions.Prepared forEcological environment planningProvide basis for adjusting the overall urban construction plan.
Environmental capacity and resource prediction
according toEnvironmental function zoningEnvironmental quality standards and environmental pollution status predict changes in regional environmental capacity;Predict the resource utilization and resource support capacity in the region according to industrial structure, population and other factors.
Prediction of economic losses caused by environmental resources destruction and environmental pollution
The main contents include: economic losses caused by unreasonable development of resources;Economic losses caused by environmental pollution;Human health loss caused by environmental pollution[2]。
Prediction method
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Qualitative prediction method
It can generally refer to empirical inference methods, heuristic prediction methods, etc.The common ground of these methods is that they mainly rely on the experience and logical reasoning of the forecasters, rather than on historical data for numerical calculation.However, it is different from the method of making predictions based on subjective intuition, but it is formed by making full use of newly acquired information and gathering collective opinions according to certain procedures.Qualitative prediction methods include Delphi methodSubjective probability method、composite proposals、Analytic Hierarchy Process, leading indicator prediction method, etc.
Quantitative prediction method
The quantitative prediction method mainly relies on historical statistical data, and constructs a mathematical model on the basis of qualitative analysis.According to the mathematical form of prediction, it can be divided into fixed value prediction and interval prediction.This method does not rely on human subjective judgment, but on data. The calculation results are much more specific and accurate than the qualitative analysis.The quantitative prediction methods includeTrend extrapolation、Regression analysis methodInput output method, fuzzy reasoning method, Markov method, etc.
Comprehensive forecasting method
The comprehensive forecasting method is a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.In other words, the qualitative method should also be supplemented by necessary numerical calculation;In the quantitative method, the choice of models, the choice of factors and the identification of prediction results must also be based on the subjective judgment of people.Because all kinds of prediction methods have their scope of application and shortcomings, the comprehensive prediction method has the advantages of many methods, so it can obtain more reliable prediction results[3]。
