European sovereign debt crisis

Problems with the government's balance sheet

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synonym European debt crisis (European sovereign debt crisis) generally refers to the European sovereign debt crisis

European sovereign debt crisis is in the form of sovereign debt crisis - originated from national credit That is, the government's balance sheet has problems. The sovereign debt crisis of European countries has its historical, institutional and own reasons, but the most fundamental reason is that their economies have lost "productivity". stay Greece Occurring financial crisis serious influence Resident consumption , resulting in Economic downturn The currency overvaluation makes the export always poor, and there is no flexible monetary policy The government has to rely on investment and consumption to stimulate the economy, deficit Keep accumulating. The vicious circle of deficit and export decline finally makes Greece sovereign credit risks Gradually accumulate and economic crisis Completely exposed. As far as the EU is concerned, it is difficult to improve and Monetary Value The dual challenge of maintaining stability.

Chinese name: European sovereign debt crisis
Type: crisis

Properties: finance
Hazards: serious

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five enlightenment
six The prospect is worrying

brief introduction

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Europe Sovereign debt crisis It appears in the form of sovereign debt crisis - originated from national credit That is, the government's Balance Sheet There is a problem.

Cause

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Root cause

The root cause of the European debt crisis

World Economic Hegemony 1500-1990

Charles P., a famous American economic historian Jindelberg Charles Kindleberger once said meaningfully in his famous book "World Economic Hegemony 1500-1990" that the most important thing for a country's economy is to be "productive". Most of the economic hegemony in history has gone from "productive" to“ unproductive ”The transformation of life cycle Therefore, it is impossible to escape the fate from prosperity to decline.

In fact, this "productiveness" is not only an important basis for the rise and fall of hegemonic countries, but also a general National economy The foundation of prosperity and recession. European Sovereign debt crisis There are historical, institutional and own reasons, but the most fundamental reason is that the economy of these countries has lost its "productivity".

with Greece Take for example. As the main beneficiary country of the EU aid program, Greece experienced rapid economic growth from 2003 to 2007 growth rate 4%. High growth mainly comes from finance and current account Of Double deficit And joining eurozone After that, it is easier to obtain cheap loans to stimulate infrastructure construction and credit consumption. But, financial crisis serious influence Resident consumption , resulting in Economic downturn The currency overvaluation makes the export always poor, and there is no flexible monetary policy The government has to rely on massive investment and consumption to stimulate the economy, deficit Keep accumulating. The vicious circle of deficit and export decline finally makes Greece sovereign credit risks Gradually accumulate and economic crisis Completely exposed.

As far as the EU is concerned, as the global manufacturing industry gradually moves towards emerging market National transfer, manufacturing in the euro area globalization China has gradually lost its market high-tech product At a price disadvantage, the market is constantly squeezed. Because it is difficult to improve the scientific and technological level in a short time Monetary Value If we want to maintain stability, countries that cannot occupy the market with high-tech products will not be able to enjoy the benefits of depreciation.

Causes of crisis system

System problems are induced Sovereign debt crisis , and even spread to European debt crisis Important reasons.

The impact of the Greek crisis on the euro

Take Greece as an example. As the weaker Economies The Greek government has the incentive to adopt a loose policy fiscal policy To stimulate economic growth 。 Before joining the euro zone, the Greek government should take into account the resulting inflation and the impact of exchange rate rise on exports, inflation and export decline or will lead to worse economic conditions, which will seriously weaken the country's credit situation and reduce the country's Financing capacity 。 But after Greece joined the euro zone, these constraint condition It is greatly weakened, because in the eyes of Greece, Inflationary pressure It can be diluted by other euro area countries, while trade with other euro area countries and capital flows Nor does it exist exchange-rate risks Export has been guaranteed to a certain extent, and exchange rate risk has been greatly reduced.

Therefore, in the previous years Economic situation When it was better, the Greek government did not fully comply Stability and Growth Pact , optimize its financial situation, but keep loose fiscal policy to further stimulate economic growth. So there is“ Negative externalities ”The situation.

In addition, there is no independent monetary policy , making member countries lack an important tool for macro-control. Greece The government regulates the economy Is almost completely dependent on fiscal policy Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the Greek government has had to expand fiscal spending to stimulate the economy in order to save the economy and avoid recession, resulting in a more serious deficit.

The rigid Eurozone system, which takes inflation as the goal of monetary policy, has a great disadvantage rationality 。 The differentiated national conditions of European countries have not been fully taken into account. There is a contradiction between fiscal policy and rigid monetary policy, while other policies Coordination Lack of running in and consistency, and supervision is not strict enough. The euro zone has become a machine with mismatched parts, friction Large, slow running, creaking.

Of course, for Greece, Sovereign debt crisis There are also important historical reasons. In 2001, Greece joined the euro area in an effort to meet the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty: budget deficit Cannot exceed gross domestic product 3%, and the total outstanding debt cannot exceed 60% of GDP Goldman Sachs Wait for the investment bank to sign a series of agreements Financial derivatives Protocol to reduce financial deficits In 2004, the fiscal deficit of 2000-2002 was revised upwards. The concealment of the fiscal deficit at that time also foreshadowed today's crisis.

Development mode

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The rescue of Greece was controversial. Although the rescue was necessary to avoid a chain reaction economic policy Liquidation is also necessary. From the perspective of donor countries, no country is willing to work hard for its own people Labor accumulation Our wealth helps those lazy and uncreative countries with very low returns. Aid is only a last resort, nor a long-term solution. It is against this background that the EU decided to implement the rescue plan after a fierce ideological struggle, a complex political game and great determination. On May 10, the finance ministers of EU member states reached an agreement with a total amount of 750 billion euro The rescue mechanism. The rescue mechanism consists of three parts of funds: first, 440 billion euros will be provided by euro zone countries according to mutual agreements for a period of three years; Second, 60 billion euros will be used by the EU《 Lisbon Treaty 》Based on the relevant provisions, the European Commission financial market Raising funds on; Third, International Monetary Fund (IMF) will provide 250 billion euros. The rescue plan will be temporarily relieved Greek debt crisis The debt crisis will not continue to worsen in the short term.

But in the end, we have to solve our own problems by ourselves. The austerity policies of the recipient countries are necessary, and these countries must pay the price for the previous "spending more than they can afford" behavior and repay the arrears. As a condition for obtaining the bailout, Greece promised to reduce financial deficits , spending cuts will reduce the salary Freeze social security and other benefits. For this reason, a large-scale strike movement took place in Greece on May 5, 2010 to protest the austerity measures taken by the government.

The bailout cannot fundamentally solve the problems that these countries have accumulated for a long time, for example, Greece's Long term debt The problem has not yet been thoroughly eradicated. To get out of the crisis completely, Greece needs to adjust its domestic economic structure 。 But, Tight finance The promise of will inevitably lead to further economic recession. Therefore, the EU's assistance to these countries will continue.

Throughout the crisis, the economic level is inconsistent, and the economic policy is uncoordinated , leading to the emergence of euro zone countries fiscal policy act of one 's own free will, monetary policy Constrained, the contradiction between fiscal policy and monetary policy leads to economic Internal contradiction Burst. The pattern remains unchanged, and crises continue. Yin Jian is not far away, in the post summer world. The euro area must carry out institutional reform, or there may be a crisis in the future.

Deductive method

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The first path is that the euro zone countries and even the entire EU countries International Monetary Fund Work together to help happen Sovereign debt crisis Our country has come out of the crisis. If this path works, it is the simplest and least harmful path. The possibilities for doing so are: 1. Failure to rescue countries in crisis will endanger their own economic security , or even lead to euro The disintegration of the euro area will be extremely detrimental to most euro area countries. 2. On hedge fund In the case of a large short of the euro and the European stock market, the slower the rescue action, the more serious the crisis will be. Even if only a few countries break out of the crisis, it will also form“ Butterfly effect ”, leading to global financial market even to the extent that Real economy Great shock. The disadvantages of doing so are: 1. No one can tell how deep the water in crisis countries is. 2. The act of relief will be opposed by the people of both the donor country and the recipient country.

The second path is to expel the major countries in crisis from the euro area or wait for these countries to voluntarily withdraw from the euro area. In Greece Sovereign debt crisis After the outbreak, German Chancellor Merkel immediately put forward the idea of expelling Greece from the euro area, but this idea was immediately opposed by the governor of the German Central Bank, and was not responded by other countries in the euro area, because, in the euro area design scheme And Institutional arrangements In, none of the Sovereign state Provisions and mechanisms for expulsion from the euro area. As for letting countries with sovereign debt crisis withdraw from the euro zone, it is impossible. sign out euro The region will face the punishment of high interest rates, and will bear a huge amount of euro debt. The local currency will also face the risk of large-scale devaluation, large-scale unemployment and recession will follow, and the economic outlook will face more disastrous consequences. More importantly, in accordance with the EU Constitution, quitting the euro area means quitting the EU at the same time, which will undoubtedly lead to the doom of countries quitting the euro area. Therefore, although this path cannot be completely blocked, it will be difficult to implement.

The third path is to implement large-scale international rescue or increase the shareholding of major countries International Monetary Fund Of Fund shares And the International Monetary Fund will expand the rescue scale. The biggest defect of this approach is that the rescue funds do not have legal and effective security guarantees, and do not comply with the corresponding provisions of the International Monetary Fund. Unless it is absolutely necessary, the possibility of implementing a large-scale global rescue will not be too high.

The fourth path is euro The collapse of the euro zone and the disintegration of the euro zone. There may be two ways for the disintegration of the euro area: one is that the crisis has continued to erupt on a large scale, and has reached the point where it is impossible to rescue, and finally has to announce the disintegration of the euro area and the disappearance of the euro; Second, the euro versus the dollar Price comparison It may even reach 1:1 or even lower. In this case, Germany, France and other countries will suffer huge economic losses, and Germany may take the lead in announcing its withdrawal from the euro zone. Because Germany is the largest in Europe and the euro area Economies If Germany withdraws from the euro zone, it will be a fatal blow to the euro, and the euro mechanism will be difficult to maintain, and finally it will have to announce its disintegration.

Among the four paths mentioned above, the best path is the first, and the worst path is the fourth. It should be noted that, euro The collapse of the euro zone and the break-up of the euro area are not exaggerations and sensationalism, but a must be prevented Possible Reality.

enlightenment

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Global financial crisis Since then, major countries in the world have joined hands, U.S. government Implemented a strong Anti crisis policy , success has made the United States financial market Stability has been restored, economic growth has resumed, and the economy of other major countries has also recovered a good momentum of growth. China stands at 4 trillion yuan Economic stimulus plan Led by, take the lead in realizing V-shaped rebound. However, in 2010, Greece Sovereign debt crisis Sudden outbreak and spread to other European countries, euro Continuous depreciation, global economic situation Suddenly it becomes complicated and confusing, China's economy External environment Uncertainty Sharp rise. We can take the European sovereign debt crisis Evolution process And US subprime crisis Make a comparison.

First look at the United States. first, subprime The rise in default rate and the decline in the price of subprime related bonds led to the money market mobility Shortage Continuous issuance Process interruption; present price Pricing and Capital fund Caused by deduction principle Leverage ratio Increase, financial institutions can only achieve by compressing the balance sheet Deleveraging 。 In this process, the credit crunch intensified, and some financial institutions went bankrupt due to insolvency. Financial crisis spread Real economy Fall into recession. In order to stabilize the market, the government money market Liquidity injection and acquisition Toxic assets And take over financial institutions on the verge of bankruptcy; At the same time, the government vigorously implements expansionary finance monetary policy ——Quantity easing and zero interest rate stimulate economic growth.

Look at Greece Sovereign debt crisis 。 November 2009 Greece finance minister Announces that its 2009 financial deficits The ratio of GDP to GDP will be 13.7%, instead of the original forecast of 6%. There was panic in the market, and the price of Greek bond CDS rose sharply. In the first quarter of 2010, the ratio of Greek government bonds to GDP reached 115%. In April 2010, the Greek government announced that if it did not get the rescue loan before May, it would not be able to provide the 20 billion yuan euro national debt Refinancing 。 Investors began to sell Greek bonds on a large scale due to fear that the Greek government would default on its US $300-400 billion bonds. The Greek government is difficult to repay the old debt by issuing new debt, and the Greek sovereign debt crisis finally broke out. Mainly relying on Greece government bonds Financing for mortgage Greek Bank Unable to get funds from other places, we can only rely on cheap ECB loans, and the liquidity shortage in the money market has suddenly intensified. Greece's sovereign debt crisis Infectious effect Appears: Spain Ireland 、 Portugal and Italy And other countries suffer at the same time Credit crisis The GDP of the affected countries accounts for about 17% of the GDP of the euro area; Capital flight from Europe, liquidity shortage in the money market, Interest rate The euro depreciated as it rose. In this case, the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF urgently introduced 750 billion euros of rescue measures. The European Central Bank Treasury bond market Buy on Private investors Sell off Greek government bonds to prevent their prices from falling Yield rise. The number of "junk" bonds on the ECB's balance sheet is increasing. At the same time, the European Central Bank has increased its short-term loan Relax the mortgage conditions of loans to alleviate the liquidity shortage in the money market. Stable financial market At the same time, unlike the United States, EU countries have not adopted Expansionary fiscal policy 。 Greece and other countries began to implement Fiscal retrenchment Policies, Germany and other countries with good financial conditions are also ready to implement fiscal austerity. The EU Region Global financial crisis Very loose monetary policy However, in this European sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank does not seem to intend to follow the example of the United States, nor does it modify the 2% Inflation rate Objectives.

Greek Sovereign debt crisis , from financial deficits Too high, but this is not just a problem. Under the high welfare system, the Greeks were able to maintain High consumption , enjoying lifestyle, plus tax administration Bad, leading to serious tax evasion, making its financial situation worse; When Greece and other countries joined the EU free flow And fixed rate , which led to a large inflow of funds and an increase in public and private debt, not only a large number of fiscal deficits, but also a large number of current account Deficit ； Greece labor market Stiffness, and German labour productivity The gap continues to expand, but it cannot be narrowed through the free flow of labor; Mayo The provisions on fiscal deficits have not been strictly observed, and the EU has not formed an effective regulatory mechanism due to the contradiction between integration and sovereignty; Affected by the global financial and economic recession, the Greek problem has worsened; The serious financial difficulties were temporarily covered up due to false accounts, and the opportunity to take measures as soon as possible was lost.

Usually, when a country Economic growth rate Descending financial deficits There are three ways to deal with the increase: first, through Expansionary monetary policy For example, interest rate cuts will stimulate economic growth, increase taxes and reduce deficits; The second is to stimulate exports and economic growth, increase taxes and reduce deficits through currency depreciation; Third, implementation Austerity fiscal policy , but pay attention to its impact on growth negative effect 。 However, Greece does not Local currency And independent monetary policy Neither expansionary monetary policy nor devaluation can be implemented, only Fiscal retrenchment One way is to slash wages and benefits. This is politically difficult and the effect is unpredictable. Germany and other countries are reluctant to help, which also aggravates the market's concern about the prospect of Greece and boosts the outbreak of the crisis.

European rescue and consequences

In order to avoid the worsening of the crisis and catastrophic consequences, on May 10, Europe urgently introduced a rescue mechanism with a total amount of 750 billion euros, which is the largest rescue operation in Europe's history. Of which 440 billion euro It is a loan promised by the euro zone government. To implement the rescue, the euro zone government established a three-year European Financial Stability Mechanism , as a SPV , will issue bonds to raise funds to help any euro zone country facing sovereign debt crisis; 60 billion euros will be European Commission According to《 Lisbon Treaty 》From financial market raise; The IMF will also provide 250 billion euros.

In order to avoid the decline in the price of government bonds, by May 28, the European Central Bank had purchased nearly 40 billion euros of euro zone bonds, including Greece, Spain Portugal 、 Ireland Of which 25 billion is Greece sovereign debt 。 ECB average Trading day Purchased about 3 billion yuan euro Of which 2 billion came from Greece. But Greece shows no signs of improvement in the short term. The European Central Bank is almost Greece Sovereign bonds Buyer of.

In the process of large-scale purchase of Greek bonds by the European Central Bank at artificially high prices, Germany and France also engaged in open and closed fights. The former president of the European Central Bank is Jean Claude Trichet of France, and the Germans accuse him of yielding to President of France Sarkozy's huge pressure violated the European Central Bank's long-standing rule that it is not allowed to purchase the national debt of its member states. The governor of the German central bank suspects that the French bank intends to use this opportunity to clean up 80 billion Greece on the books of French banks Non performing assets 。

Italian economist, current president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi He took office on June 24, 2011. And proposed at the beginning of 2015 Quantitative easing Policies aimed at stimulating economic growth in the euro area.

In addition to purchasing problem bonds, the European Central Bank Open market operation Through various measures, such as reducing the collateral standard of ECB loans, increasing the mobility Injection. Federal Reserve Then announced that the exchange lines with other central banks will be reopened to ensure that other central banks can obtain sufficient dollar 。

It can be concluded that Greece has enough money to repay its national debt in the next two years and will not default, Infectious effect The situation will not continue to deteriorate if it is temporarily controlled. Although the price of European sovereign bonds has stabilized, investors sold off due to lack of confidence in the European economy euro The purchase of dollars has led to the continued depreciation of the euro. Europe Sovereign debt crisis It's far from over.

Moreover, the question remains: how will the European Central Bank exit in the future? The European Central Bank has been pushed into a corner by the bailout policy. If it stops rescuing the market, will it bring the bond prices of highly indebted countries to the bottom? The ECB itself could be in danger. The European Central Bank's funds, about 70 billion euros, are mostly invested in euro zone countries central bank 。 The rescue crisis will seriously affect the central bank's funds or even completely exhaust them. At the end of each year, the Bundesbank usually transfers its profits to federal government 。 However, in the next few years, profits may decrease due to the linkage with Greek bonds, which will also have a negative impact on the confidence of the German central bank.

The Debt Problem of Euro Area and the Prospects of Euro

The problem is not just Greece. The average budget deficit in the euro area accounts for 6.9% of GDP. Except Greece, Ireland And Spain, which account for more than 10%. EU《 Stability and Growth Pact 》It is stipulated that the deficit of each member country shall not exceed its gross domestic product 3% of, Public debt It shall not exceed 60% of GDP. However, according to EU data, in 2009 and 2010, only Sweden and Estonia Reach the standard.

If Greece and other European countries want to solve the debt problem, they should make financial deficits /The GDP will decline sharply, and we will make National debt balance /GDP stops growing or drops to an acceptable level. The dynamic path of the ratio of national debt balance to GDP depends on the comparative relationship between the economic growth rate and the real interest rate of national debt. While the basic fiscal deficit must be reduced year by year, the deficit countries must also meet the condition that the debt balance/GDP tends to be stable. The condition is: economic growth rate greater than Real exchange rate 。 The condition for stable and declining balance/GDP ratio of government bonds is: economic growth rate - interest rate（ Treasury bond yield ）-Inflation rate>0.

It is conceivable that European countries with heavy public debt burden will seek new growth points, strive for higher economic growth, and implement Expansionary monetary policy , lower interest rate, allow higher Inflation rate , and implement Austerity fiscal policy , otherwise Long term interest rate Will rise. It seems that it is difficult for Greece's debt balance/GDP to stabilize and gradually reduce. The growth rate of Greek economy may be less than that of national debt for a long time Effective interest rate , because Greece has not found a new growth point, and inflation I can't get up in a short time, so I have to rely on euro Depreciation Fiscal retrenchment 。 If Greece cannot guarantee basic Balance of revenue and expenditure Greece's debt/GDP cannot be gradually reduced. Such problems also exist in many euro zone countries and OECD country. In 2011, the national debt/GDP of euro zone member countries will be more than 90%.

The devaluation of the euro is temporary, European Balance of payments The situation is obviously better than that of the United States, and the euro will not continue to depreciate. The euro area will not disintegrate, because the political cost is too high, and the economic capacity of Europe should be able to solve the current problems, the key is Germany's attitude. In the EU Economies Medium, if not Financial transfer payment The stronger Germany is, the weaker other countries are, euro The more problems there are, there is a paradox. Therefore, if Germany sweeps the snow in front of its own door, it will only solve its own problems, which will harm both the euro and Germany.

The crisis can lead to the disintegration of the euro zone and the disappearance of the euro. But the crisis may also lead to the euro zone integration process The deepening of the reform is not only a unified currency, but also a unified or nearly unified finance, which is similar to the financial relationship between the United States federal and the states. Previously, the European Union and the euro area expanded too fast, and many systems and mechanisms were not perfect. Can we introduce an exit or delisting mechanism in the future to avoid being trapped in a hopeless situation. In the future, we should further break down the barriers to the flow of various factors, such as the flow of labor, to promote the convergence of labor productivity.

Strong European economy and strong euro It is in China's interest, because the devaluation of the euro can provide conditions for the diversification of China's foreign reserves. In the past, the euro was too expensive, which restricted us from doing so.

The United States remains the biggest threat to world financial stability

The real threat in the medium and long term is developed country And the accumulation of national debt and foreign debt. Who will buy the huge global public debt, especially US Treasuries ？ Japan's debt accounts for 200% of GDP, but Japan Savings rate Very high, basically purchased by local residents, National wealth Basically, it can be solved. Eurozone bonds are also bought by Europe itself. Who buys US government bonds? The world is entering a stage of borrowing new bonds to repay old ones and the central bank printing money. New bonds can only be purchased by countries with surplus savings. Once no one buys new bonds, it will lead to State bankruptcy 、 Bond default As well as printing money, the result must be inflation. The reason why there is no inflation is that China and other countries continue to Buy America and Eurobond On the other hand, the operation of commercial banks has not returned to normal.

In the future, the United States will remain the world financial stability The biggest threat of. Because in Europe as a whole, there is only the problem of national debt, and the problem of foreign debt is not serious. For example, Germany International investment position Positive, Eurozone Balance of payments Basic balance. In this regard, Europe is stronger than the United States. The United States has a huge amount of financial deficits There is also a huge foreign debt Double deficit Under such circumstances, financial stability can be maintained largely due to the International reserve currency Status. As the double deficits worsen, the position of the US dollar will eventually weaken. US Treasuries More than 50% rely on foreign investor In 2015, the ratio of US government debt to GDP will be more than 100%, and there is no prospect of improvement for a long time. Therefore, in the medium and long term, it is not excluded that Balance of payments crisis and financial crisis Possibility.

Japan, China and Germany have strong financial resources to purchase US treasury bonds. but Greek crisis And the general deterioration of the financial situation of all countries in the world, reducing the ability of Japan and Germany to buy US treasury bonds. Who will pay the bill? In this context, the United States has used the strategy of line of sight diversion to turn this pressure to coercion RMB appreciation Come up. First, 130 members of the United States asked for joint names RMB Exchange rate appreciation, nobel prize in economics winner paul krugman It is also repeatedly mentioned that the RMB should appreciate, "do not hesitate to fight with China trade war ”And other viewpoints, claiming that the appreciation of the RMB can solve the US trade deficit 。 Just ended in May 2010 China US Strategic Dialogue China, although the United States exchanged concessions on RMB appreciation for concessions on opening up the market. However, due to political needs, the topic of RMB appreciation will certainly be brought up again. What is China's real interest? In the future, China will Dollar trap How deep will it sink? It is worth thinking deeply.

The prospect is worrying

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Europe Sovereign debt crisis Since the outbreak, the EU has adopted a 750 billion euro rescue mechanism government finance A series of measures including debt crisis Domino. The crisis is still developing, and global economic growth is facing severe challenges.

"Live a tight life"

On May 10, 2010, the EU Finance Ministers' Meeting reached an agreement with a total amount of 750 billion euro (about US $1 trillion). In response, European Commission Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said that the plan showed "the determination of the EU to defend the euro". On the same day, the European Central Bank announced that it would intervene in the public and private debt markets of the euro area and purchase member countries government bonds This is the first time that the European Central Bank announced to buy government bonds. On June 7, Eurozone finance ministers reached an agreement on the final details of the 750 billion euro European rescue mechanism, clearing all the obstacles for other Eurozone countries that may fall into debt crisis like Greece to launch this rescue mechanism.

At the same time, in order to restore market confidence, Europe began to vigorously Tight finance 。 On May 6, 2010, Greek Parliament Approved the government's proposal Fiscal retrenchment Programme. The plan is to reduce spending by 30 billion euros in three years financial deficits % of GDP percentage From 13.6% in 2009 to less than 3% in 2014. On May 20, French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that he would reform Fiscal system , reduce budget deficit, and implement old-age pension Institutional reform 。 French government It also plans to amend the Constitution, which will realize the public Fiscal balance As a government Permanent The objectives are included in the Constitution. Sarkozy promised to control the proportion of fiscal deficit in GDP within 3 years within the EU's 3%. On May 27, Spanish Parliament It passed the 15 billion yuan policy issued by the government euro Fiscal retrenchment Programme. On June 7, German Chancellor Merkel announced that the German government will cut its fiscal expenditure by more than 80 billion euros in the next four years to curb the sharp growth of Germany's budget deficit (which will exceed 5% of GDP in 2010) and "set an example" for other EU member states. In addition, the UK Ireland 、 Portugal Other countries also announced fiscal austerity plans. Since then, Europe has officially entered the tough era of "tightening the belt".

However, the "big deal" of the EU has not been recognized by the market, and the long-term effect of the rescue mechanism is questioned, because the institutional problems still need to be solved. UK《 Financial Times 》The article said that the aid program was only the first step to solve the Greek style debt crisis. If we do not improve the governance of the euro area from the system and change the unbalanced development of the EU, it is difficult to prevent similar crises from happening again. World Bank President Zoellick believes that 750 billion yuan euro The rescue package has bought time for Europe, but it is not enough. So far, Europe has focused on Fiscal retrenchment With debt, but this is "only half the story", Europe still needs to restore strong growth. Without strong growth, fiscal adjustment will be more painful and the political situation will be more difficult to control. Therefore, we should not "blindly practice economy", but also find a "sustainable road to prosperity".

"Good medicine" in exchange for "breathing time"

The debt crisis is still spreading in the euro area. Can investors cut back on Greece and other countries smoothly financial deficits And public debt. At present, European countries Financial pressure It is generally increasing. Not only Greece Portugal 、 Ireland And other small countries Government debt The proportion in GDP exceeds the upper limit stipulated by the EU, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, etc Economic Powers They are also beyond the standard. According to the statistics of Eurostat, the overall fiscal deficit of the Eurozone accounted for 6.3% of GDP in 2009, and the government debt accounted for 78.7% of GDP, both exceeding the EU ceiling of 3% and 60%.

At the same time, closely knit European debt credit relationship It has expanded the default problem of a single country into systematic risk. according to Bank for International Settlements Among Greece's external creditors, European countries account for the majority. Among them, Portugal Risk exposure 10 billion euro 。 At the same time, Portugal It also has debt relations with several European countries, and its debt to Spain amounts to 86 billion euros. Spain owes 236 billion euros, 222 billion euros and 114 billion euros respectively to Germany, France and Britain, the three major European countries. Any node on the European debt network has obvious vibration, which may trigger large-scale systemic Sovereign default 。 Therefore, Greece appeared Debt default The consequences will be unimaginable. Now, Greece has become the European version“ Lehman Brothers ”Once it collapses in the debt crisis, there will be an "earthquake" in the euro area, and investors will further lose confidence in Spain and other euro area countries.

On May 28, 2010, Rating agencies fitch Suddenly downgraded Spain Sovereign credit rating 。 On May 30, French Minister of Budget Luan He said that France must formulate and implement economic reform and budget deficit reduction plans, or its "AAA" sovereign credit rating may also be downgraded. Many analysts believe that the EU rescue mechanism can only delay the outbreak of crisis in the Eurozone countries with outstanding debt problems, such as Greece Debt restructuring Hard to avoid. Rating agencies S&P Considers that although a huge amount of relief can be avoided Sovereign debt crisis In the short term, it may not be a "good medicine" for the long-term problems of Greece and other countries, but only a "breathing time".

The fire of the EU affects the whole world Economic recovery

Influenced by the European sovereign debt crisis financial market Turbulence. If the crisis is protracted, it will hit investor confidence. In the current situation where the foundation of world economic recovery is still very fragile, it is particularly necessary to be alert to the adverse impact of the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis on the recovery of the euro area and the world economy.

Reduction of EU member states financial deficits Your efforts will inevitably drag you down Economic recovery Pace. The European Commission has Government debt The problem is listed as the main threat to the economic recovery of the EU. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinu predicted that the Greek economy would shrink by 4% in 2010 due to budget deficit reduction. Spanish economy and Chancellor of the Exchequer Elena Salgado pointed out that, Fiscal retrenchment The implementation of the measures will force the Spanish government to reduce its economic growth forecast for 2011 from the original 1.8% to 1.3%. According to the prediction of the European Commission, the economic growth rate of the EU and the Eurozone will be only 1% and 0.9% in 2010, and the recovery pace will lag behind that of the United States and other countries Economies 。

As the debt crisis continues to worsen, the economic outlook in Europe has become increasingly bleak and may emerge“ Double dip recession ”。 If the European economy weakens again, its negative impact will Through trade , capital, confidence and other channels global economy Create weight. Hong Kong Asia Weekly An article published on May 23, 2010 said that Europe Sovereign debt crisis Show global financial tsunami Instead of passing, it has entered a more fragile New stage , greater challenges will emerge at any time. World Bank chief economist Lin Yifu He said that the global debt crisis in Europe financial market Turbulence may prompt countries to postpone the implementation of exit strategies.^[1]

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