Emerging industries

Economic terminology

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Emerging industries refer to those related to national economic and social development and industrial structure Optimize and upgrade industries with overall, long-term, guiding and dynamic characteristics. Compared with traditional industries, it has the characteristics of high technology content, high added value, and intensive resources, which also promotes the development of the national economy and enterprises Innovation driven The fundamental way of endogenous growth track.^[1]

Emerging industries are new economic sectors or industries that emerge with the birth and application of new scientific research achievements and emerging technologies. Generally, the standards and business processes of emerging industries have yet to be developed, and pioneer enterprises often gain the first mover advantage.^[2]

Chinese name: Emerging industries
Foreign name: emerging industry
Category: Electronics, information, biology, new materials, etc
Features: High technology, high added value, resource intensive, etc

Meaning: Is the fundamental way to promote the development of national economy and enterprises onto the track of innovation driven and endogenous growth
Nature: New economic industries emerged with the birth and application of new scientific research achievements and emerging technologies

catalog

definition

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The emergence of emerging industries has put forward corresponding requirements for talent demand. Since the 1940s and 1950s, new science and technology have developed by leaps and bounds, especially electronic and information technology has been increasingly widely used, marking that human society has entered a new stage of technological revolution.

classification

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Industries formed by new technology industrialization. At the beginning, new technology belongs to Knowledge form In the process of development, its achievements are gradually industrialized, and finally form an industry. for instance bioengineering technology In the fifties and sixties, or even earlier, it was just a technology, so it became a bioengineering industry and let these achievements serve the society. In the United States, the bioengineering industry is known as a very promising emerging industry. Similarly, the IT industry, due to the development of digital technology, is also considered a new Chaoyang industry 。

Transform traditional industries with high and new technologies to form new industries. For example, hundreds of years ago, the steam engine technology was used to transform the hand-made textile machines to form the textile industry, which led to the rapid development of the entire textile industry. In contrast, the textile industry is a new industry, new technology and transformation of traditional industries. For example, the transformation of the steel industry has become a new material industry compound material And new materials with good acid resistance, alkali resistance, abrasion resistance and flexibility. Similarly, the traditional business will be transformed into logistics industry with new technologies. The core of these industrial transformation has greatly improved the economic efficiency compared with traditional industries.

Emerging industries

The industry of social welfare undertakings shall be industrialized. In this regard, we have a lot of work to do. In foreign countries, the media industry is an important industry, which has produced the most millionaires in the past 20 years. And we regard the media as a career, which is very valuable.

Industrial characteristics

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First, there is no explicit demand. There is nothing that can be accurately described when the industry is in a hazy state or five years ahead of time.

Second, there is no stereotype equipment 、 technology 、 product And services. Take the solar energy industry as an example. In the early 1990s, the production of core components, as well as services, technologies, products, markets, and models were all blank, but they gradually improved later.

Third, there is no reference. Automobile, refrigerator, color TV, computer and other industries have been introduced on a large scale from abroad. The industry of solar energy is not available in foreign countries, and there is no reference in China, so in this case, it depends on System innovation 。

Fourth, there is no policy. As long as the country has industries, it has industrial policies, including loans Science and technology investment , support and other aspects have industrial policies, while emerging industries have to endure a long period of loneliness.

Fifth, there is no mature upstream industrial chain. The upstream industry chain is even stronger in technology, level, guarantee and system than the downstream industry chain, such as airplane engine At least on a horizontal line, but there is no solar energy.

effect

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The development of emerging industries can increase Effective supply 。 The development of national economy is the balance between supply and demand. We're starting domestic market demand In the process of economic contraction, especially in the world recession When the trend is obvious, increasing effective supply is an important driving force to further activate domestic demand and ensure the sustainable development of the national economy. How to increase effective supply? It is to launch new industries. If we cannot effectively develop new industries and increase effective supply, domestic demand cannot be started. Our country's market saturation is a low-level market saturation, while people's demand for high-level market is still very strong and growing. A series of aspects such as education, medical treatment, health, sports, entertainment and leisure have greater needs. Holiday economy , which shows that people have strong demand in this regard.

Development significance

1、 The development of new industries is conducive to meeting the needs of society. Our country enters the buyer's market from the seller's market only at a lower level of demand. However, there is still a shortage of high-level demand. For example, there is a shortage of cheap and high-quality cars, while ordinary cars are sold at such a high price, so there is a surplus, which is a buyer's market. People's demand for housing is also in short supply. There are still a considerable number of people in the city (including those in the countryside) who still fail to meet the per capita housing standard set by the state. People's demand for high-level cultural life has not been met either - the right to enjoy education has not been fully met, and the demand for high-level medical security has not been met in time. What can we do then? It can only be solved by developing new industries.

2、 It can increase effective supply.

3、 The need to improve the efficiency of the whole society and enhance the comprehensive national strength. past times Planned economy It is a big misunderstanding that the behavior of many economic organizations has turned into governmental or semi governmental behavior. Many industries that can create economic benefits are regarded as only social benefits, and many industries are regarded as social public welfare undertakings. If industry is regarded as a social public welfare undertaking, a benign reproduction system cannot be formed, and effective supply cannot be increased without benign reproduction, which is the most basic law in the economy. Therefore, we must change our concept and carry out industrialized operation for the so-called social public welfare undertakings that can carry out industrialized operation. Everything that can be solved by the market should be handed over to the market. There should not be too many market access barriers or too many policy constraints. Opening up to the outside world should also be open to the inside and private capital. Industries that can be industrialized should be pushed to the market. Only in this way can the efficiency of the whole society be effectively improved and new sources of national wealth be increased, Add new impetus to the development of the national economy and improve the overall national strength.

Development prospect

In the first quarter of 2013, the state continued to increase support for strategic emerging industries in terms of policies and funds, and the central budget expenditure also increased capital investment in strategic emerging industries such as energy conservation and environmental protection. New generation information technology , new energy, new materials, high-end manufacturing and other fields continue to make breakthroughs, promoting the market space and application scope of strategic emerging industries to expand day by day.

Although the overall development of strategic emerging industries is good, some problems in the development cannot be avoided. From the perspective of external development environment, trade protectionism tends to strengthen, and the development of China's emerging industries has been curbed; From the perspective of industrial development model, some emerging industries have overcapacity under the government led development model aimed at stimulating investment and creating GDP; From the perspective of market development, affected by costs, supporting infrastructure and other factors, the domestic market cultivation of emerging industries is relatively lagging behind, which has become one of the important bottlenecks restricting the development of industries.

Strategy formulation

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strategic analysis

Emerging industries

The strategy formulation of emerging industries must adapt to the uncertainty and risks of the industry development in this period. Most of the rules of competition are not clear, Industry structure It is volatile and may change, and it is difficult for competitors to distinguish. However, all these factors have another nature - the emerging stage of an industry's development may be the period with the greatest degree of strategic freedom, and it is also the period when the leverage generated by good strategic choices reaches the maximum in determining industry performance.

The forming industrial structure. The overriding strategic issue in emerging industries is that manufacturers Industry structure Forming ability. Through their strategic choices, manufacturers can try their best to determine competition rules in areas such as product policies, sales methods, and pricing strategies. In the long run, under the constraints of the fundamental economic strength and financial resources of the industry, manufacturers should seek to define the competition rules within the industry by forming their most powerful position.

Industrial development Externality 。 In an emerging industry, a major strategic issue is that manufacturers should balance industry publicity with the pursuit of their own narrow self-interest. Due to the potential problems of industry image, reputation and buyer confusion in the emerging stage, the success of manufacturers depends partly on other manufacturers in the industry. The overriding problem of the industry is to introduce succedaneum It is often in the interests of manufacturers to attract first phase buyers and help promote standardization, rectify substandard product quality and unreliable manufacturers in this stage. It can also form a united front for suppliers, customers, the government and the financial sector.

Timing

The choice of appropriate entry time is a crucial strategic choice for competition in emerging industries. Early entry (pioneer) contains high risks, but on the other hand, it may contain lower barriers to entry and can provide a large amount of benefits. Early entry is appropriate when the following general conditions exist:

a、 The image and reputation of the manufacturer is important to the buyer. The manufacturer can develop a reputation that has been improved by being a pioneer.

b、 Early entry can start the learning process in a business unit. The learning curve in that business unit is important, and experience is difficult to imitate. Successive generations of technology will never invalidate this learning process.

c、 Customer loyalty is very high, so the manufacturers who sell to customers first can naturally get benefits.

d、 Absolute cost advantage can be obtained through early commitment to raw material supply, sales distribution channels, etc.

Early entry is particularly risky under the following circumstances:

a、 Early competition and market segmentation are carried out on the basis of different, but important to the later stage of industry development. Therefore, vendors will build the wrong skills and may face high change costs.

b、 It costs a lot to open up the market, including costs such as customer training, approval of rules and regulations, and technology development, but the benefits of opening up the market cannot be monopolized by manufacturers.

c、 It will cost a lot to compete with those small and new manufacturers in the early stage, but it will be more difficult to compete with them in the later stage.

d、 Technological change will make the early investment obsolete, and give some advantages to those manufacturers with the latest products and processes that enter later.

Tactical actions. The problem of restricting the development of an emerging industry provides some tactical actions to improve the strategic position of manufacturers: the early commitment to the supply of raw materials will generate favorable priorities during the shortage period.

competitor

It may be a difficult problem to deal with competitors in an emerging industry, especially for those manufacturers who are pioneers and have enjoyed a major market share. The surge of newly formed entrants and manufacturers separated from the parent company will cause dissatisfaction of the pioneers, so the manufacturers must face the external factors mentioned earlier, which make the manufacturers partially rely on competitors for the development of the industry.

A common problem of emerging industries is that pioneers spend too much money to defend their high market share, and there will be few opportunities for those who can form in the long run Market power Of competitors. This may be partly due to emotional reactions. Although it is sometimes appropriate to react harshly to competitors in the emerging stage, it is more likely that the efforts of manufacturers should be focused on building their own strength and developing the industry. Perhaps it may be appropriate to encourage the entry of certain competitors by issuing licenses or other means. Given some characteristics of the emerging stage, manufacturers can often benefit from other manufacturers' efforts to sell industrial products and assist in technological development. Manufacturers can also deal with competitors who are famous for their output. As the industry matures, they can also give up the practice of maintaining their own large market share and invite competitors to enter the industry through major established manufacturers. It is difficult to generalize the appropriate strategy, but only under extremely rare circumstances, it will be feasible and profitable to defend a market share close to monopoly with the rapid growth of the industry.

Challenge approach

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In order to save a solar cell company, the local government decided to include the repayment of hundreds of millions of yuan of matured trust loans into the financial budget. Once the matter was disclosed, it immediately aroused public debate. Why did the local government use the financial budget to save a private enterprise? How did the enterprise fall into bankruptcy dilemma?

In fact, from the high point, the stock price of the company has fallen by more than 90%. In addition, the continuous decline of the company's bonds has also triggered concerns about the credit market in the Chinese bond market, which is expected to break the record of never defaulting in the Chinese bond market for many years.

This enterprise is a representative enterprise in the transformation of China's economy from traditional industries to emerging industries, and its dilemma is a typical case that China must reflect on when developing emerging industries. As investors, what lessons can we learn from them and how can we invest in China's emerging industries in the future?

First of all, we should attach great importance to the development barriers of the industry. From upstream polysilicon raw materials, midstream silicon chip cutting and battery chip production, and downstream module production, the technical difficulty of the solar photovoltaic industry is getting lower and lower. The highest difficulty is the production of upstream polysilicon raw materials. The production technology of early polysilicon was monopolized by seven major companies in the world, China needs to spend high prices to import a large amount of polysilicon raw materials from abroad. From 100 tons, 1000 tons to 10000 tons, Chinese enterprises have gradually mastered the improved Siemens method of producing polysilicon. Without the barriers of technical barriers, the whole industry soon bloomed and the production capacity expanded rapidly. A sound patent and intellectual property protection system is a prerequisite for the development of emerging industries, so as to encourage and protect innovators and enable advantageous enterprises with technology patents to become bigger and stronger. Unfortunately, China has not paid enough attention to the protection of patent technology and intellectual property rights. The technology patents of some advantageous enterprises were quickly imitated by competitors, and the original high-tech emerging industry has become a simple manufacturing industry.

Secondly, attention should be paid to the changes in industry demand. Since the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation is higher than that of traditional electricity, the use and promotion of downstream photovoltaic cells rely on government subsidies. In 2005, Germany's Renewable Energy Law made it clear that the government would purchase the electricity generated by photovoltaic cells installed by residents at a subsidy price higher than the market price. Since then, European governments have followed suit, This has led to a sharp increase in demand in the global photovoltaic market, and Germany once accounted for half of the global solar photovoltaic market. Germany gradually lowered the subsidy price, while other European countries, affected by the debt crisis, began to control the total amount of photovoltaic cell installation subsidized by the state, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of the global photovoltaic market. Many emerging industries cannot develop without government subsidies at the initial stage of development. Therefore, we should always be alert to whether the market demand will decline once the government subsidies are reduced.

Third, we should pay attention to the core competitiveness of enterprises. Although the solar energy industry is highly competitive, some enterprises with core technologies still maintain good cash flow relying on their low-cost advantages. Once the industry recovers, these companies are expected to be the first to benefit. Especially in the polysilicon manufacturing at the upstream of the solar energy industry, the technological gap will lead to the difference between life and death of different companies. High cost companies are difficult to endure the industry downturn for a long time.

The fourth is to stay away from the over expanded simple manufacturing industry and companies. The main reason for the bankruptcy of the enterprise is the over expansion of the enterprise. Only three years after its establishment, the enterprise has become the first solar silicon chip manufacturer in the world with a capacity of more than 1GW. Since then, its capacity has been growing at an annual rate of 1GW. This enterprise is just a microcosm of China's rapidly developing solar photovoltaic industry. In order to achieve industrial transformation, local governments have vigorously supported the solar photovoltaic industry as an emerging sunrise industry, and have provided various preferential electricity prices, land plants, financial discount loans and other policies. There are more than 100 solar photovoltaic industrial parks in China, and more than 300 cities plan to develop photovoltaic industry. Since 2006, the domestic PV cell capacity has grown from less than 1GW to 30GW in 2011, and the polysilicon output has grown from less than 1000 tons to 80000 tons, reaching 150000 tons. With the help of governments at all levels, a sunrise industry has become an industry with serious overcapacity and extensive losses in 6 years.

Fifth, pay attention to the enterprise's Balance Sheet Once the industry falls into a downturn, companies with weak balance sheets will face a crisis. Solar photovoltaic is a capital intensive industry, especially in the upstream polysilicon field. In order to move upstream, the enterprise invested 12 billion yuan to build a 15000 ton polysilicon project. At the same time of rapid expansion of production capacity, the debt of the enterprise has expanded rapidly. By the end of 2011, the total debt had exceeded 30 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 87.7%. As the supply and demand situation of the entire solar energy market worsened, those assets formed by high investment soon became assets with low capacity utilization rate, and high liabilities became the root cause of the enterprise's bankruptcy dilemma. The most frightening thing is that the solar energy industry is still undergoing continuous technological innovation, and the capacity formed a few years ago is difficult to form effective capacity after the next round of industry cycle reversal. Investors should be vigilant when dealing with companies in emerging industries that expand through high investment and high debt, which are essentially simple manufacturing industries.

In a word, we should not be confused by the aura of "emerging industries". Compared with traditional industries, emerging industries also have huge risks. In emerging industries, we should look for enterprises with real technical barriers and innovation capabilities, look for enterprises that are light on asset investment, can create good cash flow, and have excellent business models. We should care about the expansion speed of the entire industry and changes in downstream demand, so that we can avoid risks and really obtain good investment returns from the growth of enterprises in emerging industries.

Current affairs viewpoint

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On November 28, 2011《 The 12th Five Year Development Plan of the Internet of Things 》Released, as an important part of strategic emerging industries, it plays an important role in accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode. The Central People's Government issued a document to seize the opportunity, clarify the direction, highlight the key points, and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of the Internet of Things《 Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries 》, specially planned for 2011-2015.^[3]

The Internet of Things has become one of the strategic commanding heights of the current new round of economic and technological development in the world. The development of the Internet of Things has important practical significance for promoting economic development and social progress. Integration of industrialization and industrialization is also the direction of development. Soon after the release of the Plan, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved Guangdong Shunde to create a "deep integration of industrialization and industrialization of equipment industry and intelligent manufacturing pilot". Shunde proposed to build a number of "unmanned factories" in intelligent products.

The unmanned manufacturing industry may provide a path for the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. Li Guangqian believes that intelligence is the inevitable way of "integration of informatization and industrialization", and its technical core is undoubtedly the Internet of Things, but we should balance input and output, do according to one's ability 。 Wu Hequan It is pointed out that, on the premise of“ Integration of industrialization and industrialization ”The Internet of Things is the entry point of "integration of informatization and informatization", which can greatly promote the application of informatization. A large number of applications of the Internet of Things are in the industry, including Smart grid 、 Intelligent Transportation 、 Intelligent logistics 、 Intelligent medical treatment 、 Smart home wait. The purpose of the country's development of the Internet of Things is not only to produce application benefits, but also to drive industrial development. With the Internet of Things, every industry can improve its core competitiveness through informatization. These intelligent applications are the transformation of economic development mode.

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