Real estate bubble

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synonym Real estate bubble (The phenomenon that causes the imbalance between economic structure and social structure) Generally refers to the real estate bubble

Real estate bubble, Charles P. Goldberg (CHARLES P KINDLEBERGER)《 The New PalGrave A Dictionary OF Economics 》The entry of "bubble" wrote: "'bubble' can be loosely defined as an asset or a series of assets Asset price In a Continuous process The initial price rise makes people have the expectation that the price will rise further, thus attracting new buyers - these people generally make profits by buying and selling assets speculator In fact, the use of assets and Profitability Not interested. With the rise of prices, it is often expected to reverse and prices plummet, which usually leads to financial crisis 。”

The so-called bubble refers to the sudden rise in the price of an asset in a continuous trading process, which seriously deviates from the value, and can not be reflected when the economy is full of Material wealth A money bubble. When asset prices rise to an unbearable level, they will inevitably plummet, as if bubbles burst, and the economy began to shift from prosperity to recession, known as“ bubble economy ”(Foam Economy)。 The two characteristics of the bubble economy are: the supply and demand of commodities are seriously unbalanced, Supply Far more than requirement ； Speculative trading The atmosphere is very strong. The real estate bubble is due to Real estate speculation Caused by Real estate price Seriously deviated from the value, market price It is not supported by actual users.

The earliest real estate bubble that can be verified occurred in 1923-1926 Florida, USA Property Bubbles, this time Real estate investment The frenzy once triggered the collapse of Wall Street stock market, and led to the global economic crisis in the 1930s led by the United States, which eventually led to the Second World War The explosion of.

Chinese name: Real estate bubble
Foreign name: housing bubble

House price performance: The selling price is abnormally high, and the real rent drops
Discipline: economics
Properties: A form of real estate price fluctuation

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1. The real estate bubble is real estate Price fluctuation A form of;

Real estate bubble cartoon

2. The real estate bubble refers to the fluctuation of the real estate price with steep rise and fall, amplitude Larger;

3. Real estate price fluctuation does not have Continuity , no stable period and frequency;

4. The real estate bubble is mainly caused by Speculation , Yes Money supply In real estate economic system It is caused by the sharp increase in the medium and short term.

bubble economy The two characteristics of requirement ； Speculative trading The atmosphere is very strong. The real estate bubble is a kind of bubble economy with real estate as the carrier Real estate speculation The real estate price and use value Serious deviation, the market price is separated from the actual user support.

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1. House price performance: the price is abnormally high, rising all over the country, and the actual rent drops

Table 1 Performance of House Price

type	Subclass	Specific indicators	Foam reference standard		Actual value or situation in China
type	Subclass	Specific indicators	slight	serious	Actual value or situation in China
performance	Price	Selling price	Price income ratio: within 1:6	1: More than 10	About 1:18
		House price growth rate	House price growth rate/per capita income growth>1	House price growth rate>30%	House price growth rate/per capita income growth>1
		Price increase range	All kinds of properties in the country rose	All kinds of properties in the country rose	All kinds of properties in the country rose
		Rental price	Rental price index/CPI index	Rental price index	Rental price index/CPI index
		Investor psychology	More optimistic	Very optimistic	More optimistic

It can be seen from Table 1 that:

（1） Selling price Too high. House price income ratio It is a basic indicator of real estate prices. The high housing price income ratio means that the real estate price is separated from the demand base. The appropriate housing price income ratio in the world is generally between 1:2-6. From January to September 2004, China's commercial housing average price It reaches 2770 yuan/square meter, and the national average house price income ratio is close to 1:8; Many cities are more than 1 to 10. According to the survey of 50 cities in China in January 2003 and 2004, more than 66% of the respondents think it is high, and more than 58% of the respondents think it is very high.

(2) The selling price rose rapidly. The continuous sharp rise of real estate prices is an important manifestation of the real estate bubble. A reasonable increase in selling price should not be higher than Disposable income Otherwise, this growth will not be sustainable for a long time. Ministry of Construction Officials believe that the housing price year growth rate The base axis of should be 3%. Since 2003, China's real estate prices have risen rapidly, from January to September 2004 House sales price The growth rate increased by 13.4% over the same period of last 2003, exceeding Per capita disposable income 8.7% growth rate (after CPI index After adjustment).

(3) The selling price rose across the board. The overall rise of real estate prices is an important manifestation of the real estate bubble. From January to September 2004, the sales price of real estate in all parts of the country was rising, and the sales price growth rate in some regions reached about 20%. By region, there are 6 Regional price The increase was more than 20%. In terms of cities, the housing price in Hangzhou rose from 3000 yuan per square meter in 2000 to more than 5500 yuan in 2004; Fuzhou The house price has risen from 2000 yuan/square meter to 6500 yuan/square meter in recent three years. From January to September 2004, the sales prices of all kinds of properties across the country rose rapidly, of which the private housing transaction price rose the most, with the index reaching 115.2.

(4) Real rents fell. The real estate market can be divided into real estate sales and Rental market The general rental market can accurately reflect the real consumer demand , when the real estate sales market exists Speculative demand When the speculative demand in the sales market is strong, the supply in the rental market increases significantly while the demand turns to the sales market, which will lead to the decline of the rental price of the real estate. The rise of the rental and sales price of the real estate is lower than the rise of the price, which means there is a bubble in the sales market. The absolute decline of the rental and sales price of the real estate means sales Market bubble Serious. From January to September 2004, the rental price growth rate of houses was 2.1%, far lower than city dweller Consumer price The increase of 5% indicates that the real rental price of houses is declining rapidly.

(5) Investors are very optimistic about the situation. Optimism of investors is the psychological basis for the growth of real estate price and demand bubbles, and the change of optimism also leads to the bursting of bubbles Sufficient and necessary conditions 。 Chinese developers are almost unanimously optimistic about the real estate market situation and opposed to the real estate bubble. At least before the interest rate hike, many enthusiastic investors were very optimistic about the real estate situation, and investors in some cities were almost crazy. But rational outsiders hold the opposite, namely pessimistic attitude. At the beginning of November 2004, an investigation conducted by AIA consultants showed that 74.9% of the respondents believed that there was a bubble, and 7.2% of the respondents believed that there was no bubble.

2. Demand performance: housing sales increased sharply, mortgage loans increased significantly, and domestic and foreign funds entered

Table 2 Demand performance table

type	Subclass	Specific indicators	Foam reference standard		Actual value or situation in China
type	Subclass	Specific indicators	slight	serious	Actual value or situation in China
performance	demand	Growth rate of housing sales	one	Growth rate/growth rate of retail consumer goods>2	one
		Mortgage loan growth rate	one	Growth rate/per capita income growth rate>2	Growth rate/per capita income growth rate>1
		Proportion of savings in total deposits	The proportion of savings in total deposits decreased	Severe decline	decline
		International hot money	Mass entry	Fast mass entry	Mass entry
		Private hot money	Mass entry	Fast mass entry	Mass entry

It can be seen from Table 2 that:

(6) Housing sales grew abnormally. house Sales growth rate Should be slightly higher than Total retail sales of consumer goods The growth rate is growing at a high speed, which means that there are Investment demand 。 From January to September in 2003 and 2004, the growth rate of housing sales was much higher than that of total retail sales of consumer goods, reaching 27.2% - 39.7%, 18.1-28.2 times higher than that of total retail sales of consumer goods Percentage point 。 During the real estate overheat period from 1992 to 1993, the growth rate of housing sales reached 42% - 56%, 25-27.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. This indicates that there is a large amount of speculative demand in the real estate sales market.

(7) Mortgage loan Explosive Growth. Real estate demand depends on Family income The expansion of real estate speculation demand mainly depends on housing mortgage loan Growth. Therefore, the growth ratio of housing mortgage loans to household disposable income reflects the development degree of the real estate bubble from the perspective of demand, Indicator value The larger the, the higher the degree of speculation. Personal housing loan High speed growth, personal housing from 1999 to 2003 Loan balance Year on year growth 218.6%, 148.72%, 65.77%, 47.71% and 42.46% respectively. In 2003, the balance of personal housing loans reached 1177.974 billion yuan. By the end of 2003, the balance of housing mortgage loans in China had reached 1200 billion yuan, more than 50 times that of 1997, higher than that of households in the same period Disposable income Growth. Due to the low base of housing mortgage loans, we can't simply draw the conclusion of market bubbles based on the continuous growth of this indicator, but this growth is indeed extraordinary.

（8） Resident savings Rapid reduction. The continuous decline in deposit growth may mean that residents begin to withdraw money from banks for consumption or investment in hedging products. In February 2003, residents' savings accounted for 53% of the total deposits, and fell to 49% in September 2004. Since 2004 RMB Savings deposit For seven consecutive months, there has been a year-on-year decrease. From January to August, RMB savings deposits increased by 1086.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.6 billion yuan.

（9） hot money Large inflows. International hot money The massive inflow and investment in real estate will drive speculative demand. International hot money enters China in a large number of covert ways. According to the estimation of relevant experts, at present, China's foreign exchange reserve Medium, balance of trade surplus About US $100 billion, foreign direct investment About $300 billion, the remaining $100 billion is Hot money Some of the hot money flows into the real estate market. Beijing Daguan Real estate brokerage company Some of investigation report It shows that in 2003, the number of house buyers in Beijing came from Europe and America 4.9x growth from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan 2.5 to 3.5 times. The proportion of overseas people buying houses has reached nearly 15% of the total transactions.

(10) There is a large inflow of private hot money. Private funds A large amount of investment in real estate has created huge speculative demand, leading to a sharp rise in house prices. From 2001 to 2003 Wenzhou Mainly Zhejiang and other private capital group of property speculators In China's real estate market set off a huge wave. These collective buyers first went to Zhejiang and Shanghai, and then rushed to the whole country to purchase houses in a concentrated manner. It is estimated that there are nearly 100000 people buying houses in Wenzhou Seed fund About 100 billion yuan. Real estate speculators have pried several times or even dozens of times of local funds into the property market, stimulating the advance and speculative demand of local consumption, thus generating mutual promotion of demand and price, and the house prices in many "speculation" cities soared.

(11) The proportion of investment purchase is high. The proportion of investment house purchase funds in the total house purchase funds is an important indicator to judge the real estate bubble. The international warning standard for this indicator is 10%. According to the investigation of relevant departments, the proportion of investment house purchase in various regions has grown too fast. For example, in Shanghai, the proportion of overseas and non local residential purchase demand, calculated by area, is up to 25%, the proportion of investment house purchase is up to 16.6%, and the proportion of office building investment house purchase is up to 40%; Fuzhou People outside the city buy houses Contract registration Volume, area and balance accounted for 42.3%, 44.9% and 45.4% of the total in the same period respectively; The number of buyers of commercial housing in Hangzhou is less than 50%.

3. Supply performance: abnormal growth of supply, House vacancy rate Too high

Table 3 Supply performance

type	Subclass	Specific indicators	Foam reference standard		Actual value or situation in China
		Specific indicators	slight	serious	Actual value or situation in China
		Proportion of investment house purchase	10%	Investment/total house purchase ratio>20%	10%
performance	supply	Growth rate of development investment	3> Growth rate/GDP growth rate>2	Growth rate/GDP growth rate>3	Growth rate/GDP growth rate>3
		Growth rate of development loans	2> Growth rate/total loan growth rate>1	Growth rate/total loan growth rate>2	2> Growth rate/total loan growth rate>1
		Growth rate of housing construction area	one	Growth rate/sales area growth rate>2	one
		House vacancy rate	10-20%	More than 20%	More than 20%

It can be seen from Table 3 that:

(12) Development Investment amount Extraordinary growth. Real estate development investment yes Real estate supply The most direct response to demand. The extraordinary growth of development investment may mean the formation of speculative demand and inflated prices. The growth rate of real estate investment is the indicator to measure the growth rate of real estate development investment/ GDP growth rate , generally not more than twice. In 2003, China's accumulated investment in real estate development exceeded 1 trillion yuan, up 29.2% year on year, the largest increase since 1995. From January to September 2004, the investment in real estate development increased 28.3% year on year, which is the same period gross domestic product Three times the increase.

（13） Development loan Extraordinary growth. Real estate development loan Growth exceeds all loans Growth rate The extraordinary growth may be the profit seeking reflection of bank funds on speculative demand. 2000-2002 for Real estate development The loan growth rate was 11.81%, 32.96% and 27.78% respectively. On the basis of five consecutive years of rapid growth, the national real estate development loan reached 665.735 billion yuan in 2003, with a year-on-year growth of 49.1%. From 2000 to 2003, the growth rates of all loans were 6%, 13%, 17% and 21% respectively.

（14） Construction area Extraordinary growth. The construction area is the future house Supply The construction area growth requires that there must be a matching demand growth in the future. From January to September in 2002, 2003 and 2004, the growth rate of construction area was 20.1%, 26% and 23.3%; From January to September in 2002, 2003 and 2004, Sales area The growth rates were 20.2%, 29.1% and 19.3%. Even considering speculative demand, the growth of construction area also exceeded the growth of sales area.

Newly built buildings

(15) Housing vacancy rate is too high. The housing vacancy rate is a concentrated reflection of the real estate supply exceeding the real demand, which is internationally recognized cordon It is 10%. 2003 Nationwide Vacant house The area has reached 125 million square meters, and the vacancy rate has reached 26%. At the end of September 2004, although Year on year decrease 2.3%, still far beyond the international warning line. This decline may be caused by the growth of speculative demand. Although the housing vacancy rate is somewhat different from the international concept, the domestic high vacancy rate reflects more profound structural problems.

Land scarcity

First, the limitation of land and Scarcity It is the basis of the real estate bubble. Real estate and people enterprises and institutions Our immediate interests are closely linked. Home ownership is a basic social welfare requirement, and people's requirements for living conditions are endless; And related to the development of enterprises Production conditions And the improvement of office conditions is also directly related to real estate. Because of the limitation of land, people have always been optimistic about the rise of real estate prices. When economic development is on the rise Investment focus focus on Infrastructure and Housing construction In this way land resource The supply of Real estate enterprises and Private investors Invest heavily in real estate in order to gain the benefits of rising prices, Real estate transaction Very popular. In addition, people are optimistic about the economic prospects Real estate mortgage Borrow money from banks, hype real estate, and make its price soar.

Speculative demand expansion

Secondly, the expansion of speculative demand is the direct cause of the real estate bubble. The demand for real estate for speculative purposes is related to the scarcity of land, that is, people buy houses not for living, but only for reselling. Once this behavior becomes a catch-up group action, it is difficult to restrain, and the real estate bubble will follow.

Overlending

Real estate bubble

Moreover, excessive lending by financial institutions is the direct result of the real estate bubble Combustion promoter 。 from economics From the perspective of, the price is commodity value The currency performance and the abnormal rise of prices must be closely related to capital. because Value The most fundamental condition for the emergence of a real estate bubble is whether there is a large amount of capital in the market. Therefore, financial support is generated by the real estate bubble necessary condition Without the cooperation of banks and other financial institutions, there would be no real estate bubble. As the real estate is a real estate, it is easy to seal up, keep and sell off, which makes the banking department think that Loan risk Very small. Driven by profits, banks are also very willing to issue loans with real estate as collateral to real estate investors. In addition, the banking sector will be overly optimistic Collateral Value, thus strengthening the borrower's Financing capacity , further intensifying the rise of real estate prices and industrial expansion.

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Economic and social Structural imbalance

Real estate bubble

The existence of the real estate bubble means that the investment in real estate is higher ROI 。 stay bubble economy During this period, a large amount of funds gathered in the real estate industry, and speculation was rampant. During the bubble economy period, many of the high profits of Japanese large enterprises came from Land speculation and Stock speculation As a result of the non operating income, the operation and management of the enterprise are relaxed, resulting in adaptive capacity of an enterprise The general decline of. During the period of rapid growth, Japanese enterprises Bank borrowings Centric indirection Financing mode To expand its equipment investment 。 After 1987, lured by the rise of stock prices and land prices, they were transferred to Equity financing And speculative land financing modes On. A large amount of capital flows to the real estate industry, which means that productive enterprises lack sufficient capital, or it is difficult to obtain funds necessary for production at normal costs.

On the one hand, the rise of land price leads to Investment budget It is unprofitable to invest in the urban areas with high land prices. Such as Japan Tokyo During road construction, Land requisition Up to Total cost 43.3%, and 99% in some sections. This further resulted in the relative reduction of public investment, forming a bottleneck for economic development; On the other hand, as the urban land price continues to rise, land is the safest Yield The highest assets are held in large quantities, which makes the scarce land idle or used at a low level. The tendency of land speculation is increasingly prominent. At the same time, due to the rise of real estate prices holder The asset gap with non real estate holders, metropolitan areas and local areas is growing, causing Social distribution New injustice, serious contusion The enthusiasm of workers has brought profound social problem 。

financial crisis

The close relationship between the real estate industry and banks is mainly determined by the characteristics of large investment and high value of the real estate industry. According to some data, real estate developer project Invested funds About 20%~30% of them are bank loans; Construction companies often have to advance about 30% to 40% of the total investment in projects, and most of the funds are bank loans. In addition, at least half of the buyers have applied Personal housing mortgage loan 。 In addition, 61% of the real estate projects are funded by banks. Therefore, once the real estate bubble bursts, banks will become the largest buyers. It should be noted that security is particularly important for banks, which are different from general enterprises. The bankruptcy of general productive enterprises only concerns themselves and shareholders, and has little impact on other subjects. The failure of a bank is not only a matter for the bank itself, but also often causes a chain reaction, making other banks also face the risk of a run.

Production and consumption crisis

Uncompleted residential buildings formed by real estate bubbles

The bursting of the real estate bubble is often accompanied by economic depression, and the stock price drops, Enterprise Finance The operation is gradually in trouble. Falling share prices Corporate issuance A large number of convertible company's creditor's rights cannot be converted into equity in the long term, which brings huge debt repayment burden to enterprises; In addition, the decline in land prices and stock prices has also caused enterprises to bear a huge Asset appraisal loss And the loss on sale of land and shares forced to be sold. Enterprise income The decrease of Underinvestment , which not only reduces the investment level of research and development, but also reduces the investment of enterprises in equipment. The recession of production has led to the deterioration of the employment environment and residents real income The decline of. The bankruptcy of enterprises means a large number of unemployed employees. Even if the enterprises have not failed, they will continue to reduce their staff due to the decline of income. In addition, the decline of land price also makes the residents Land assets Devaluation. Due to the economic downturn and personal income The decline of the level will make residents worry about the future to varying degrees, so they will reduce consumption in the current period and expand the savings in income in case of accidents. personal consumption The decline of Industrial sector be put in a tight spot.

Causing political and social crisis

With the bursting of the real estate bubble and economic crisis A large number of factories closed down, Unemployment Sharp increase. Under the financial crisis, criminal cases have surged. with Malaysia For example, after the real estate bubble burst in 1997 crime rate Compared with 1996 Annual increase 38%, and the crime rate in the first quarter of 1998 increased by 53% over 1997. Because people are dissatisfied with the worsening economic crisis, the social crisis has gradually intensified. The anti government demonstrations of workers and students caused riots and social unrest.

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1. Strengthen macro monitoring and management of the real estate market

Real estate bubble

Macroeconomic situation And policy changes, which often lead to a chain reaction of other factors, including national taxes Labor employment 、 Resident income 、 financial environment 、 Enterprise profit , etc. The government's comprehensive monitoring of the macroeconomic situation and the formulation of appropriate policies are the primary measures to prevent the real estate bubble. Real estate has both assets and consumer goods Duality Because of this, the investment in the real estate market is very active, and it is easy to generate real estate bubbles, we must strengthen the management of the real estate market. First of all, we should strengthen the Investment management , determined according to the level of income Investment scale , so that the production and sales of real estate can basically adapt to avoid excessive backlog; Secondly, strengthen Secondary real estate market To prevent excessive speculation in the market of high-rise buildings and increase the real estate bubble; Finally, we should adjust the structure of real estate development, vigorously develop the residential real estate, and strengthen the market statistics and forecasting, so that the real estate industry can become a real bubble free industry prime mover industry 。

2. Establish a unified national real estate Market operation Early warning and forecasting system

To strengthen and improve the macro monitoring system, we should Real estate market information Timely collect, sort out and analyze, make evaluation and forecast on market operation, regularly issue market analysis reports, reasonably guide the market Macro decision-making Provide good advice. China's real estate industry continues to grow at a relatively fast speed, attracting a large number of enterprises to invest in real estate. Therefore, the state should speed up the establishment and improvement of the macro-control system of the real estate industry, and carry out necessary intervention and regulation through land supply, taxation and improvement of pre-sale management, so as to effectively prevent the emergence of real estate "bubbles".

3. Strengthening land resource management

The government should use land resources Supply To control the unreasonable rise of commercial housing prices. According to the requirements of the real estate market, we should maintain the reasonable supply of land and the supply proportion of various types of land, and implement Land transfer Open bidding system to control the excessive land price in some cities. We must resolutely stop High-grade residence Blind development and large-scale construction to prevent new backlogs and causes Structural surplus Bubbles triggered. All kinds of violations should be strictly punished and investigated real estate developer Illegal enclosure and occupation of land to avoid temporary and short-term Land income The government should immediately take back the land that has not been developed beyond the prescribed time limit. Comprehensive cleaning Land market , resolutely crack down on developers' enclosure and speculation, and prevent from the source Land lease Unhealthy tendencies and corrupt practices in the field.

4. Strengthening financial regulation Strength and reasonable guidance money flow

First, we need to further improve Financial supervision system Increase supervision means, strengthen supervision ability and improve supervision level; Secondly, strengthen Total credit scale The total social credit will not be excessively separated from the requirements of the real economy and expand violently, so as to prevent modernization from the source bubble economy happen; Thirdly, strengthen investment structure Through interest rate industrial policy And guide the flow of funds Production and operation And other substantive economic sectors; Finally, we should strengthen the management of foreign capital and foreign debt Introduce foreign capital Of direct investment And long-term foreign debt. The vast majority of the funds that contributed to the real estate bubble flowed out of banks. Therefore, we should strengthen the supervision of banks and control them from the source Speculative capital 。

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China Real Estate Association At the "First Forum on New Trends of China's Commercial Real Estate" hosted by the Commercial Real Estate Professional Committee, the risk of real estate bubbles is currently increasing New urbanization The traditional commercial real estate development model and structural layout need to be changed urgently to cope with the impact of e-commerce. Transformation has become an inevitable choice for the future survival and development of commercial real estate.

In general, although China's real estate is in a relatively oversupply state in the short term, with the deepening of industrialization and urbanization, national income The steady improvement of, consumption structure China's real estate industry is still in a promising position Important strategic opportunity period 。 Real estate enterprises need to break commercial real estate if they want to go further Homogenization Hedge of Strategic layout 。 It is necessary to optimize the existing commercial real estate business, and create market demand Commercial real estate business. At the same time, we should realize the combination of real estate and other industries, and focus on the formation of industrial chains, such as development Tourism real estate 、 Pension real estate , commercial real estate Leisure property 。

National bubbles

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American real estate

Since housing prices are still rising during the recession, some reports believe that the recession has not washed away the excess in the market. Existing houses Middle price In December 2003, it increased by 8.4% over the same period of the previous year, reaching a total value of 151400 dollars. 　 HSBC Bank Morris, a securities economist based in Beijing, said in the relevant report that the rise in prices caused an unsustainable situation, especially compared with income. Since HSBC is one of the largest mortgage creditors in the United States, the Morris report has caused some people's displeasure. Maurice said his opinion was based on publicity economic data It is not based on bank mortgage business information.

But there are few doubters like Maurice. Most economists believe that the housing market still has a solid foundation, which is due to immigration purchaser It is caused by strong demand, low interest rate and tight housing supply. pennsylvania Westchester Consulting chief economist Zandi said that 2001 may be a high level for quite a period of time, "but the factors supporting the housing market still exist. I don't think there will be a widespread price collapse."

morgan stanley Economist Boehner said in a report entitled "Housing Prices: A Bubble to Burst" issued at a conference that some participants argued that Real estate market It is bound to disintegrate, damaging consumer finances and contributing to economic recession.

Boehner acknowledged that in the past five years, housing prices have risen faster than ever before. Those bears who track bubbles pointed out that, Japanese stock market Nikkei Index More than a year after reaching its peak in 1998, cracks began to appear in the Japanese real estate market. However, Boehner did not believe that the collapse was imminent, although he expected the housing price increase to decline to 2% - 4% in the next few years. He said that the bubble will San Francisco 、 New York 、 Miami and Santiago Wait for the existence of high priced cities. He said that the existing housing supply in 2004 was only equivalent to four months' sales, while the new housing supply was only four months' sales, which were very low by historical standards.

Morris of HSBC used the proportion of real estate value and income as evidence in his report "The American Real Estate Cycle: Another Bubble". He said that this ratio is equal to estate "Price to income ratio" of.

According to his calculation, the current Real estate price The ratio to income is 1.6, which is more expensive than people's income. This level is roughly equivalent to the ratio in 1989, the last year when real estate prices began to decline for a long time. During most of the 1960s and 1970s, the ratio of real estate price to income was usually 1.2.

Morris said that the current high housing prices are covered by ultra-low interest rates, which allow consumers to reduce their debt burden and live in more than they actually can purchasing power The house. The rise in interest rates will cause housing market price Down. He doesn't think there are problems in the real estate market everywhere in the United States. The ratio of house price to income is New Jersey 、 Florida Texas, Illinois and other states are still relatively low, because the income growth in those places exceeded the rise in housing prices. But in other states, especially in California Washington Oregon 、 Michigan and Minnesota In the west and north central China, the ratio of house price to income is very high.

In all cities, San Francisco boston And Seattle seem the most risky; Dallas Atlanta And Houston is the place where people can most afford houses because the income growth exceeds the house price. Surprisingly, though the houses in New York are very expensive, they are more affordable than in the 1980s. Morris also said that the problem of high-end houses is even greater, especially those with prices over $300000.

Japanese real estate

In September 1985, the United States Federal Germany The finance ministers of Japan, France and Britain signed the“ Plaza Agreement ”, decided to agree Depreciation of the dollar 。 For stimulation Japanese economy Development of Japan central bank Very loose financial policy , encourage capital to flow into real estate and stock market , resulting in a sharp rise in real estate prices. dollar After devaluation (a large amount of additional US dollars) international capital The entry of the real estate industry in Japan has further stimulated the rise of house prices. Many Japanese people began to lose patience because of the sharp rise in housing prices. They found that stock speculation and speculate in real estate Real estate brought money faster, so they took out bank savings to speculate.

By 1989, Japan's real estate prices had soared to a ridiculous level. At that time, the land area was equivalent to that of the United States California In Japan, the total market value of its land is 4 times that of the whole United States. By 1990, only Tokyo Metropolitan The land price of is equal to the total land price of the United States. commonly Salaried class Even if you spend your life savings, you can't afford to buy a house in a big city. Only billionaires and a few executives of large companies can afford to buy a house.

After 1991, with the withdrawal of international capital after making profits, Japan's real estate bubble driven by foreign capital burst rapidly, and real estate prices plummeted immediately. By 1993, Japan's real estate industry had completely collapsed, with individuals and enterprises going bankrupt in succession bad debt Up to $600 billion.

From the perspective of consequences, the burst of Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s was the longest in history. This bubble not only severely hit the real estate industry, but also directly triggered serious financial crisis 。 Affected by this, Japan ushered in the longest economic recession in history, falling into a depression and downturn for 15 years. Even now, the Japanese economy has not completely gone out of the shadow.

People often call this real estate bubble“ World War II After another defeat of Japan, the 1990s were regarded as Japan's "lost decade".

China Real Estate

Global Non performing assets Jack Rodman, president of Global Distressed Solutions, believes that the real estate market in Beijing is about to collapse. Rodman pointed out that about half of Beijing's commercial real estate is currently vacant. To prove this, he has 55 vacant office buildings in his computer slide 。 He said that more than 10 such office buildings had not yet had time to take photos. Rodman said:“ I shoot The purpose of these photos is to make people understand that the supply has been seriously oversupplied. "

Real estate bubble

Driven by government officials who aim to promote growth, Chinese banks have provided loans equivalent to 1.4 trillion US dollars, most of which are used for construction skyscraper And others Commercial real estate 。 Nowadays, vacant buildings are all over the mainland of China. Office buildings in Beijing Vacancy rate 22.4% in real estate Broker CB Richard Ellis The company (CB Richard Ellis) ranks ninth in 103 markets tracked by the company. This figure does not include projects that will be put into operation soon, such as the 74th floor building of the third phase of the International Trade Center, which will become the highest building in Beijing after completion. New York hedge fund Founder of Kynikos Associates James Chanos (James Chanos) said: "A huge real estate bubble and Investment in fixed assets Bubbles are forming. It is very difficult to control the foam expansion with mild measures. "

Policymakers are worried about this. They are trying to curb the supply of funds to promote the development of the real estate industry. January 27, 2010, China CBRC The banking sector was asked to rein in the growth of loans. The CBRC announced on its website that banks should "strictly" follow the real estate Loan policy 。 Morgan Stanley Asia District President Stephen Roach (Stephen Roach) said: "The Chinese authorities are obviously trying to curb too many bank loans 。”

On February 12, 2010, the People's Bank of China raised it for the second time Bank reserve ratio 。 This should help reduce the amount of funds held by banks that can be used for new loans to slow down Loan growth 。

If the Chinese government is unable to cool the market and cause the real estate bubble to burst, then Non-performing Loan Will proliferate. Shanghai On February 4, 2010, relevant officials said that if the real estate price fell by 10%, the amount of debt in arrears in Shanghai would triple. Fitch Ratings (Fitch Ratings) analyst Charlene Chu said that due to Industrial loans Has been used for Real estate investment , so the situation may be worse than expected. She judged: "The hidden real estate risks are much more than what we see."

On January 23, 2021, New Economic Conference of Economist Circle Held in Beijing, the theme of this meeting is "the seeds of prosperity". Deputy Director of Finance and Economic Commission of the 11th National People's Congress He Keng He said that if China wanted to financial crisis It must be the real estate crisis.

He Keng said that the world's financial crisis was caused by real estate, Brazil , Japan and other countries. China's real estate bubble is no less than 30% and will burst one day.^[1]

On March 2, 2021, the State Reform Office held a press conference at which Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, introduced and promoted banking Insurance High quality development Relevant information. As for the real estate problem, Guo Shuqing said that, Real estate financialization The foam trend has been curbed by 2020 Real estate loans The growth rate was lower than that of various loans for the first time in 8 years. Guo Shuqing shouted and warned speculators: "Many people buy houses not for living, but for investment or speculation, which is very dangerous."^[2]

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